This week, even as some pundits are expecting a large tidal wave to sweep out dozens of congressional Republicans, the GOP has managed to pull ahead in three races previously projected to go the Democrats.  As a result, the tally in the House now stands at 219-216, with the Democrats still holding control.  I'm preparing a more in-depth look at the most closely-fought races so you can know what to look for on Election Night for signs of the size and strength of the alleged tidal wave.  Look for that in the next couple days.

On the Senate side, the polls this week have shown an up tick for the GOP, though several races are still unnervingly close.  Jim Talent, amid a big brouhaha over the recent Michael J. Fox TV ads, has eked out a very small lead in Missouri over Claire McCaskill.  That's a change from last week and results in a projected clear majority (albeit tiny) for the GOP in the Senate.

At 51-49 and with the races in Virginia, Missouri, and Tennessee still up for grabs, that majority is by no means a sure bet.  However, recent indicators have moved Montana and Maryland into the toss-up category as well, bolstering their prospects of keeping control of the upper chamber.  (In case you're wondering, I do not include New Jersey on purpose.)

One clear area of advancement for Democrats is in the battle for governorships.  They've held the projected lead in this category practically all season long and add two more to their total this week.  In Oregon, Ted Kulongoski has overtaken Ron Saxton - once again - to gain a projected hold for the Democrats there.

Meanwhile, GOPer Tim Pawlenty's approval numbers plummeted this month and polls have shown him in a dead-heat or slightly behind his Democratic challenger, Mike Hatch.  This two switchers move the gubernatorial tally to 29-21 in favor of the Democrats.  This represents a large seven statehouse gain from the current totals.

The next update will be the last.  I will probably post it some time in the wee hours next Tuesday morning.  That's Election Day, the culmination of everything we've been about here at Election Projection - 2006 Edition.  And an exciting one it is sure to be.  By the way, there's still time to "Name Your Price" and sign up for EP's Premium Content.  To find out how, click here.  I'm contemplating some things I think you'll find interesting for Election Night.  Be sure not to miss it!

Projected Tally

Update:  The changes have been posted.  I will have a write-up posted sometime tomorrow.  Here are the states that were updated: 

Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Indiana | Kentucky | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming

NOTE:  In order to capture as many polls as possible for this weekend's Weekly Projection Update, the Daily Poll Report will be posted late this afternoon.

Hat tip:  Oak Leaf

Update:  Did I mention that the tide is turning?

I would also like to thank several of my fellow bloggers who have alerted their readers to my promotion this weekend.  Without their support, the success of this site would have been reduced significantly.  Please be sure to check out the following websites.

On the House side, did anyone see that Selzer & Co. poll from Indiana CD-7?  When I saw the GOP candidate ahead by 3 points, my heart sank a bit thinking that another safe GOP seat was getting competitive.  Then I realized that IN-7 is a Democratic seat.  Well, lo and behold!  I think we will see this trend of more GOP-favorable polls continue over the last 17 days.  By the way, let me confirm once again that I stand by all three of the edicts I decreed earlier this year.

• The GOP will hold the House - April 24
• The GOP will hold the Senate - April 28
• Lieberman will win in Connecticut - August 10

In the Senate, though not much happened last week, look for polls this week in Tennessee and Missouri to show Corker and Talent with small leads, respectively.  And look for Allen's lead to grow some in Virginia next week as well.  The huge financial advantage enjoyed by several GOP senate candidates should start to pay dividends in some of these close races.  I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are very, very slim.

Overall, it is clear to me that the GOP has indeed turned the corner - if it was ever really down in the first place.  My only real worry at this point is another "October surprise".  As an aside:  Isn't it sad that we should have to worry about some politically-charged scandal being released just in time to influence the election?  I hope we're done with that mess for this cycle - from both sides.  Back to my optimism.  I believe now that the effort by the media to portray the GOP faithful as depressed and unenergized has failed to produce GOP faithful who are depressed and unenergized.  That is the main reason I'm feeling good this week.

The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 28.  It will be the next-to-last update.  I will have a final update on Monday night November 6th.

Projected Tally

I do think that, barring another October Surprise, we have hit bottom from a Republican perspective.  With 19 GOP seats now painted blue and 8 more within 2 points of going to the Democrats, that puts the bottom at 27.  Right now, I see that as the maximum number of possible losses the GOP could sustain.  (The number could grow by two or three if everything goes right for the Democrats.)

On the other hand, only two GOP seats are projected to be lost by more than 4 points, and only 12 by more than 2 points.  Clearly, the fight for the House is up for grabs.  The slightest move either way in the coming 22 days will make the difference, hightlighting once again the importance of participation.

The Senate has moved barely back into GOP hands.  Tennessee tilts to the red this week.  With Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania looking less and less winnable, it appears the RNC has turned its eyes (and its money) squarely on Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia.  The GOP must win two of these to maintain control of the upper chamber, if the others do indeed end up in the Democratic column.

Update:  I've received an email from Patrick Ruffini stating that the New York Times article I just linked to is false.  He contends the RNC will continue funding the Ohio race at the same pace as before.

I've been confident Corker will pull out the race in Tennessee, especially since there is a marriage protection question on this year's ballot.  I remain so three weeks out from Election Day.  Missouri has been a surprise to me, though.  If the polls are to be believed, and that is a big if, then McCaskill has a small but solid lead in that race.  As I mentioned in my Senate roundup last month, this race should prove to be a good indication of national trends on November 7.

Not much happening on the statehouse front.  Michigan's Governor Jennifer Granholm did regain the lead in her race against Dick DeVos, providing the only change this week in that category.

The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 21.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, hurry and sign up for Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program.  You'll get lots of great state-by-state information and daily updates to all the races.

Projected Tally