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  and commenting on things along the way... 		Election Projection        
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Election Projection 2004
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Last updated: 11/02/04 		   Final Projected Tally:
   Electoral Votes:   Bush 289, Kerry 249
   Popular Vote:   Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7%
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 Archives:  November, 2004

 
Edicts and Commentary

November 11, 2004

Post-election hiatus

I want to let you know that I'm still here even with the lack of posts.  I'm taking a short break of sorts, but I'll be back next week with more frequent commentary.

Update:  It is hitting me now how tired I am from all the time and effort I put into Election Projection over the last couple of months.  I'm thinking I will probably not be posting very much between now and the end of the year.  Don't be too discouraged; The Blogging Caesar is not hanging up the ol' keyboard for good.  I'll be back, renewed and refreshed, come January.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15pm 11/11/04
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November 8, 2004

Why it was so close

President Bush should have won this election 58.5% to 40.5% when you take away the 15-point electoral gift given to Senator Kerry by the mainstrean media.  Back in July, Evan Thomas, the Assistant Managing Editor of Newsweek, had this to say:
There’s one other base here: the media.  Let’s talk a little media bias here.  The media, I think, wants Kerry to win.  And I think they’re going to portray Kerry and Edwards -- I’m talking about the establishment media, not Fox, but -- they’re going to portray Kerry and Edwards as being young and dynamic and optimistic and all, there’s going to be this glow about them that some, is going to be worth, collectively, the two of them, that’s going to be worth maybe 15 points.
For those of you who wonder how this election was not a landslide of historic proportions, there's your answer.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 11/08/04
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November 5, 2004

Spending on Specter

Liberal GOP Senator Arlen Specter floated a "subtle warning" to President Bush about future judiciary nominations.  At the same time, the President is out there saying he's looking to spend the political capital he earned on the campaign trail.  I wonder, given the White House's backing of Specter against a much more conservative Pat Toomey in the primaries, if Bush wasn't specifically referring, in part, to Spector and his influence in the Senate judiciary process.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:15pm 11/05/04
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November 4, 2004

Yellow Dog Republicans

Why did George W. Bush win this election?  PoliPundit say it's not the economy; it's the Yellow Dog Republicans.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:35pm 11/04/04
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Grading "Twenty-One Reasons"

I've revisited my Twenty-One Reasons Why Bush Will Win article to evaluate its accuracy. Each reason has been critiqued in the light of the events of yesterday.  Read it again to find my post-election comments and let me know what you think.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:00am 11/04/04
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November 3, 2004

The future of Election Projection

Now that the election is over, blissfully over, I want to assure you all that Election Projection will return in 2006 for the congressional elections.  I will come up with some way to track the senatorial races that year.  Then, in 2008, I hope you'll all be back with me watching that red and blue map again for the next presidential elections.

In the meantime, don't go anywhere.  The Blogging Caesar is going to stick around here at www.electionprojection.com.  My plan is to keep this url active as a conservative leaning weblog.  Obviously, I'll need to change the title (not the url) to something more appropriate. I'm still thinking about what to call it.  Maybe you have a good name for The Blogging Caesar's political weblog.  To find out, I'm asking my readers for suggestions.  If you have an idea for a name, please email me here.

As Election 2004 winds down, I want to take this opportunity to express my very deep appreciation to all of you who made this website so popular.  Many of you have contributed monetarily to my work as well.  For that I am profoundly grateful.  What began on a whim last year has progressed far beyond my wildest imagination.  It has truly been a completely unexpected surprise and thoroughly enjoyable ride.  And those of you who were with me in March when my parents were killed in Iraq, your notes and comments of concern and sympathy touched my heart in a way I will never forget.  Thank you.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00pm 11/03/04
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Election Projection - the Verdict

The final Election Projection turned out to be pretty good.  It correctly projected all but two states.  (The next-to-last projection on Sunday night actually got all of them right!)

On a more humorous note, my predictions were laughably optimistic for President Bush.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:25pm 11/03/04
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It was all about turnout

As it turns out, the GOP get-out-the-vote was indeed a deciding factor yesterday.

posted by Scott Elliott at 6:55pm 11/03/04
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Election reactions upcoming

I'm going to be publishing several posts later today in reaction to the election.  Look for them beginning late this afternoon.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:45pm 11/03/04
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Kerry concedes!

I just heard that John Kerry has called President Bush and conceded the race.  It is all over now.  After an intense and exhausting 16 months, The Blogging Caesar can exhale!  George W. Bush has won the presidential election of 2004.  I feel an enormous sense of relief that America has confirmed in no uncertain terms that the right man will be in the White House for 4 more years.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:35am 11/03/04
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November 2, 2004

Election day comments

From time to time today, I'm going to be posting miscellaneous thoughts here.

  • 12:50am:  4 MORE YEARS!!!! Fox calls Ohio for Bush!!

  • 12:20am:  The Bush campaign is very confident about Ohio now.  They estimate Bush will carry the state by 100,000 to 120,000 votes - enough to avoid a recount!  Looks like 4 more years.  I'm getting tired so my comments will slow down considerably.  It has been a good night for the GOP and for President Bush.  Look for Bush to win New Mexico, lose New Hamphshire and contest Iowa and Wisconsin.  And we now know both majorities in Congress are safe for the GOP.

  • 11:20pm:  Vitter is at 51% in Louisiana with 91% reporting!

  • 11:15pm:  All four blue states whose polls closed at 11:00pm EST were to close to call. That's good news for Bush in terms of popular vote totals even if he ends up losing them all.  :(Washington has since been called for Kerry.)
    My man Burr beats Bowles in my home state.  YES!!
    New Hampshire has edged back to Kerry for the time being (by just a couple thousand votes).  There's still a lot of votes to count.
    Pennsylvania has gone to Kerry.  That represents the first state that I predicted wrong so far.

  • 10:45pm:  With 88% reporting, Bush is up by a comfortable margin in Florida.  In my opinion, Florida is in the bag for the President.  If Ohio stays red...call it a night!

  • 10:25pm:  I hear the remaining precincts in New Hampshire, currently 51-49 Kerry, are in GOP areas.

  • 9:50pm:  Man and woman marriage initiatives romping all over the country.

  • 9:15pm:  Bunning moves ahead with 87% reporting!

  • 9:00pm:  Coburn holds in OK; Daniels wins in Indiana.  The Indiana result is a governorship pick up for the GOP.

  • 8:50pm:  Fox News is talking about Bunning.  He has closed the gap considerably, and the precincts not counted are in northern Kentucky, Bunning's strongholds.  He may yet pull it out.

  • 8:40pm:  Just saw an interview with Ken Mellman.  I-4 corridor is looking better for Bush this time, and absentees will favor the GOP by at least 150,000 votes.  So, when you look at the numbers for Florida, add 150,000 to the Bush's total to find the real margin.

  • 8:05pm:  Many more calls for Dems than for the GOP right now...interesting.  Good news for the Dems or screwed up exit polling?  They aren't calling Mississippi?  C'mon.

  • 8:00pm:  Bunning is in real trouble in Kentucky, down by 6 with over half reported.

  • 7:25pm:  Don't worry about Virginia being too close to call.  The networks are going to take their time.  Realize that South Carolina is also declared too close to call right now.

  • 6:15pm:  The Corner's Jim Geraghty:
    I have also heard, on good authority, that one of the highest-ranking campaign folks on the Bush-Cheney campaign has said, "We will win Ohio. We will win Florida. And Pennsylvania is tied."  Unfortunately, this person didn't provide numbers.
    Could be GOP spin, but I'd trust it before I'd trust the exit polls.

  • 5:55pm:  My understanding is that exit polling does not include absentee and early voting.  That is a very important point, given that as many as 20-30% of voters have already voted in some spots, and just re-emphasizes the worthlessness of exit polling.  Nevertheless, exit polls can prove very important if it influences people not to vote.  That is what we MUST avoid.

  • 4:45pm:  To get an idea of how bad the exits polls can be at this stage, be sure to read this post from The Corner - I'm still looking for a big night for the President, though my predictions do seem at this point to be overly optimistic.

  • 3:25pm:  The early round of exit polls shows Kerry doing well in Ohio and Florida. However, the polling sample was apparently 59% women, 41% men.  If Bush is behind by only 4 points with that sample, I'm feeling pretty good.  That said, it is vital that we not place any true importance on these polls.  Exit polls are notoriously inaccurate, especially early on. Whatever you do, don't let any news today about the results of the election change your voting plans.  As potentially 40,000 GOPers in Florida's panhandle found out last time around, even once a state is called the question is not decided.  You can check Drudge for up-to-the-minute election news.

  • 1:45pm:  For a running conservative commentary on election news tidbits throughout the day, check out The Corner at National Review Online.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:45pm 11/02/04 and updated afterward
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    Election scorecard

    If you want to see how my projections and predictions are faring as the returns come in tonight, I've included an Election Scorecard to help you out.  I have a hunch this will be a very popular feature tonight, so we'll see how the servers here at Election Projection hold up.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40am 11/02/04
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    Last polling data update

    All the poll watching is done now.  The only poll left is the one that counts.  I've calculated the final Election Projection of 2004.  It has been an amazing roller coaster over the last year, and now it comes to this:  President Bush leads Senator Kerry 289-249 in electoral votes and 49.4% - 48.7% in the projected popular vote.  Enough changes in the reported polls occurred since yesterday for Wisconsin and Iowa to switch sides today.  After just one day in the Kerry camp, Wisconsin returns to Bush's side, while Iowa goes back to the Senator.

    There have been a mountain of polls, both state and national, released in the last 24 hours.  So many, in fact, that not all of them could be used in these latest calculations.  For this update, I used the most recent polls.  If I had to choose between two or more polls released on the same day, the one with the largest sample size was used first, the second largest sample size was used next, and so on.  I strictly adhered to this rule without regard to whom the polls favored.  In that regard, I've done my best over the last year to present the data in as objective a manner as possible.  The methodology resulting in Bush's current lead here has not changed since late May, when Kerry lead 327-201.

    Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:50am 11/02/04
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    November 1, 2004

    Last projection upcoming

    I'm going to be posting the final Election Projection in a little while.  It may not be up until after midnight, however, with the preparation I'm doing for tomorrow's big day.  I'm working on a scorecard with polling average, projection and prediction for each state.  Tomorrow I'll be updating it as the results come in.

    I'm flabbergasted by the response I've received during the last several weeks.  Sitemeter says I've had over 250,000 300,000 visitors today!  The folks at my hosting service, SimpleHost, have done a great job keeping the site going with that huge amount of traffic, but don't be surprised if you experience some slow loading tomorrow.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:15pm 11/01/04
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