Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
I hope everyone has a great time with family, friends, turkey and dressing. And I hope in your home, as in mine, the One
from whom all blessings flow will be the One to whom all thanks is given.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00am 11/23/06
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Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Update on the uncalled House races
There are still 10 races left to be called in the House. One seat, LA-2, will feature a runoff between two Democratic
candidates. That's a sure Democratic hold, leaving 9 races in which the eventual party winner is still uncertain. I have compiled
the table below as an at-a-glance way to track the remaining contested House seats. As more developments unfold, I will update it.
All House races: GOP 203 - DEM 232.
Decided races: GOP 201 - DEM 232 - last updated at 11:30am 11/30/06.
Update (3:15pm 11/14): Reichert wins Washington CD-8
Update (10:20pm 11/14): Courtney wins Connecticut CD-2
Update (10:20pm 11/14): Cubin looks to have won Wyoming CD-AL
Update (11:50pm 11/15): I've added one more House race to the undecided list. The race in Florida's 13th district is too
close to call. An automatic recount has been completed, but the results are close enough to require a manual recount.
Update (12:35pm 11/16): Barrow wins Georgia CD-12
Update (4:45pm 11/20): Wilson wins New Mexico CD-1
Update (12:50pm 11/22): Schmidt wins Ohio CD-2
Update (9:55am 11/28): Pryce looks to have won Ohio CD-15
Update (11:30am 11/30): Hayes wins North Carolina CD-8
| Undecided House Races |
| Race |
Candidates |
Votes |
Pct. |
Leader |
| Florida CD-13 |
Vern Buchanan
Christine Jennings |
119,142
118,741 |
50.08%
49.92% |
GOP
|
Texas CD-23
Runoff on Dec. 12 |
Henry Bonilla
Ciro Rodriguez |
60,147
24,593 |
48.60%
19.87% |
GOP
|
| Incumbent listed first |
|
As these races are decided, I will remove them from the list and update the decided race tally denoted above. I will also add a post to the blog
any time this table is updated.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:20pm 11/14/06
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Saturday, November 11, 2006
"Majority back guarantee"
I need to mention the edicts I decreed over the election season this year. Of three, the electorate only abided by one.
They gave the majority of both the Senate and
the House
to the Democrats in direct rebellion to The Blogging Caesar. To their credit, they did return
Joe Lieberman to the Senate.
Regarding the House, someone else appears to be in the business of making edicts of sorts. Rep. Joe Barton, running for Minority Leader in the
House, has guaranteed that the GOP will regain the House in
the next three cycles or he won't seek the Minority Leaders position after that. I hope the electorate pays him more attention than they paid to
me!
Hat Tip: Taegan Goddard
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:30pm 11/11/06
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Friday, November 10, 2006
I'm not for Rudy
Here's a little 2008 tease. I hope Rudy Guiliani is not the GOP nominee for president in 2008. Here's a big reason
why...
|
"I'm pro-choice. I'm pro-gay rights," Giuliani said. He was then asked whether he supports a ban on what critics call partial-birth
abortions. "No, I have not supported that, and I don’t see my position on that changing," he responded.
|
I appreciate what Giuliani has done for the GOP (and for America) since 9/11, but he is not the right man to occupy the White House, his statesmanship
notwithstanding. Will I vote for him in November, 2008 if he on the ballot? Against a pro-choice Democrat I would, but I'd so much rather
see just about any of the other people being floated as contenders for the GOP nod get it over him. In my view, even (if you're conservative
you may want to turn away about now)...John McCain...(no!!!) would be a much better choice - but don't tell anyone I
said that!
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:45pm 11/10/06
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Thursday, November 9, 2006
I know I'm probably right when...
My analysis of the House races in 2008 must be pretty sound. Why? Well, I figure I must be right when liberals write
in saying I'm being too optimistic about the GOP's chances, and conservatives comment that the situation is not as bleak as what I forecast.
Makes me chuckle.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:25am 11/09/06
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Wednesday, November 8, 2006
The future of the Congress
Since Jim Addison and
DJ Drummond over at Wizbang! Politics have posted extensively on the
(gloomy) outlook of the Senate in the near future, I will limit my comments to simple agreement with their take on the situation in the upper chamber.
I do want to discuss the House, however, where I fear the outlook may be equally gloomy. Looking at the seats lost yesterday and
the margin we must overcome to regain the House, it is easy to foresee an extended period of Demcratic majority in the lower chamber as well. Of
the 29 seats we lost - assuming all things stand as they are right now - many seem to be destined to stay blue for a while. Here's a
rundown of all 29, and the prospects of taking them back.
One-term wonders (10)
These are seats which should come back to the red column in two years - especially, in some cases, if the defeated incumbent
runs again.
Texas CD-22: Patience will reward Shelley Sekula-Gibbs with a seat in the House in 2 years. Leans GOP
Florida CD-16: Joe Negron would have won easily if his name had been on the ballot - and he wasn't a member of the same party as the disgraced
Mark Foley. Leans GOP
Kansas CD-2: Without Gov. Kathleen Sabelius on the ballot and in a presidential year, any adequate GOP candidate should win here. Leans GOP
Kentucky CD-3: If Anne Northup wants this seat back, she can have it. Gov. Fletcher's lawlessness will be but a memory and without
another blue wave, the popular Northup would be favored to win. Leans GOP
Ohio CD-18: This reliably GOP district will have two years to shake off the baggage of Bob Ney's indescretions. It will then elect a
Republican. Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-4: Remember Anne Northup in KY-3? Ditto Melissa Hart. Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-8: Mike Fitzpatrick was another victim of the blue wave. He'll be back in 2008 if he so chooses. Leans GOP
Pennsylvania CD-10: Even in a good year, Don Sherwood was heading out the door. Scandal with a mistress - more so than the wave - was
his undoing. A good candidate will take this seat back for the GOP. Leans GOP
New York CD-19: If Hillary wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 - which, of course, is a strong possibility - this seat will be demoted.
If not, songwriter and political novice John Hall will have to turn out to be a very good politician to avoid being a one-term wonder in this district.
Leans GOP
California CD-11: Due to some pretty extensive corruption issues, incumbent Richard Pombo was beaten comfortably by Jerry McNerney. If
the GOP can find a legitimate challenger, this seat will be ripe for the taking. Leans GOP
Power of Incumbency (11)
These are seats that raise my ire at conservatives who wanted to kick Republicans out to teach them a lesson.
That's because the Democratic winners will now have the power of incumbency in battleground districts that should never have gone to the Democrats. In non-wave years,
as open-seats, these contests would be anywhere from likely GOP to slightly GOP. But that's not going to be the case now that we've let
them slip through our fingers...grrr
Arizona CD-5: - Tilts DEM
Arizona CD-8: - Leans DEM
Florida CD-22: - Toss-up
Indiana CD-8: - Tilts DEM
Indiana CD-9: - Tilts DEM
Minnesota CD-1: - Toss-up
North Carolina CD-11: - Tilts DEM
New York CD-20: - Toss-up
New York CD-24: - Leans DEM
Pennsylvania CD-7: - Leans DEM
Wisconsin CD-8: - Toss-up
Uphill battle (6)
Without a star candidate or a red wave, these seats are likely to remain in Democratic hands for some time. The
power of incumbency in our favor is what kept them for us until now.
Colorado CD-7: - Likely DEM
Indiana CD-2: If Chocola runs again, this moves to Toss-up - Leans DEM
Iowa CD-1: - Likely DEM
Iowa CD-2: If Jim Leach runs again - which I doubt he will - this moves to Leans GOP, a one-term wonder - Leans DEM
New Hampshire CD-1 and CD-2: New Hampshire has been undergoing a significant ideological shift over the last several election cycles.
More pronounced, perhaps, than any other state during the same time period. Situated in the heart of the liberal Northeast, New Hampshire was an
oasis of conservatism - at least when compared to its neighbors. No more. With John Kerry winning here in 2004 and both GOP House seats
going down to defeat this year, New Hampshire now has to be considered a fairly blue state. Senator John Sununu's victory in 2002 may be the last
GOP victory here by a non-incumbent for a while. So, unless either of the defeated House incumbents decides to run again, these two races must be
considered pretty safe bets for the Democrats - Likely DEM
On Borrowed Time (2)
It was just a matter of time before these seats went to the Democrats. Now that they have, the GOP will have to
look elsewhere for pick-up opportunities.
Connecticut CD-2: - Likely DEM
Connecticut CD-5: - Likely DEM
Step back and look at these lists. There are 10 seats which we should regain and another 4 which I deem toss-ups. If we win them all,
we're still one short of the majority. And that's not even considering all the seats we barely won this year. No less than seven seats were
won by the GOP by 2 points or less - a Democratic victory in one or several of these is not out of the question in 2008. That makes our task all
the more difficult. I hate to say it, but without a wave of a different hue, we could be back in the minority status for a good while to come.
We sure taught that GOP a lesson, didn't we?
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:10pm 11/08/06
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Initial reactions to last night
Last night turned out to be a great victory across the board for the Democrats. Substantial gains (and the majorities) were
realized in both houses of Congress and in the statehouses. With the sting of defeat still fresh, I want to expound on some initial reactions I've
had to the result.
Liberalism was not the winner - Yes Nancy Pelosi, an uber-liberal from San Francisco, will be the next Speaker of the House, but her
ascendency is due to a crop of conservative to moderate Democratic winners last night. It was a brilliant strategic move to enlist this type of
challenger to compete in many of the House races this cycle. Their victory, however, could mark the end, or at least the slowing, of our
nation's drift to the left.
One phenomenon we've seen over the last few years is the growth of power of the Kos kids and other more radical liberal elements of our society within
the Democratic party. Some of my GOP friends have wished for the Democratic party to move ever-further to the left. Their idea is that the
GOP will find victory easier the more out of the mainstream the Democrats drift. In a sense, that is true, however, the unwanted side-effect to that
is the natural gravitation of our own party to the center to fill the void. In other words, as the Democrats have become more liberal, so has the
GOP. With so many new faces set to take their place in Washington early next year, the face of the Democratic party has become noticeably less
liberal.
In addition, several of the GOP losers were of a more moderate stripe. Ironically, as one talking head pointed out last night as the outcome
was becoming clear, we now have a more conservative Democratic caucus and a more conservative Republican caucus on Capitol Hill. In my view, that's
a positive development for conservatism and for America. And Joseph Lieberman's decisive repudiation of the ultra-liberal anti-war crowd in
Connecticut is but another indication that liberalism floundered last night even as the Democrats won big.
The return of the swing voter - Despite all the talk about the importance of turning out the base - much of it in this blog - independents
spoke with the loudest impact yesterday. In recent elections, turning out the base for both liberals and conservatives was paramount.
With independents more evenly split, effort to gain votes was better spent on getting out one's own. This time around, due mostly to the war in
Iraq, independents broke significantly toward the Democrats. No matter how the base turns out, it is hard to overcome a 2 to 1 deficit among
these swing voters.
The war in Iraq was THE issue - Exit polls are famously inaccurate tools to predict the winners in these elections. However, they are
somewhat more useful in determining what motivates voters. Clearly yesterday, Iraq was at the top of many people's lists. There is no way to
measure how many House and Senate seats the war in Iraq cost the GOP, but there is no doubt that issue played a major role in several of them.
Whether the escalating violence was, as some have asserted, the terrorits' attempt to effect the mid-terms here in the U.S. or just an unfortunate
growing pain for that fledgling democracy cannot be known for sure. However, the truth cannot be ignored. Al Qaeda and its murderous
partners in terror would like nothing more than to run us out of Iraq before the Iraqi people have gained the ability to protect and govern themselves.
The biggest concern for me now that the Democrats pull the purse strings in Congress is that we will indeed pull out prematurely and leave Iraq to
deteriorate into anarchy and all-out civil war. May that never happen.
Trust the numbers - Personally, I learned a valuable lesson which should serve me and Election Projections's audience well in future elections.
Regardless of what I feel to be the undercurrents guiding an election, I have learned to trust the numbers as I project them. In 2004, even while
my projections were almost exactly right, I felt President Bush would do much better than he did. This year, I again felt the GOP's performance
would exceed my projections. So sure was I that I issued a bone-headed disclaimer regarding my own projections, effectively disregarding them.
As it turned out, the 2006 edition of the projections was once again extremely accurate. Mark my words...never again will I question my own work!
Henceforth, I will have one picture of future elections, and that picture will be the outcome resulting from my projection formulas.
In the final analysis, America continues to be greater than the political parties which vie to steer her. From this GOPer's point of view, if we
have indeed slowed the leftward drift, perhaps this defeat will have a cleansing effect on our ideology as a nation and as a party. Hey, there's
always a silver lining, right?
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:40pm 11/08/06
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Congratulations to the Democrats
I'll have much more in the following days looking back at the events of last night. For now, I want to congratulate my
liberal and Democratic friends on their momentus accomplishment in these mid-term elections. I'll be well-fed on crow in the coming days, I'm sure.
Let me also express my deep gratitude to everyone who subscribed to my premium content. This experiment has been a wonderful success, and I
hope it will be even better in 2008.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:15am 11/08/06
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Tuesday, November 7, 2006
The mother of all disclaimers
How 'bout them numbers? My projection looks pretty gloomy for the GOP (ironically, it is still much better than some!),
doesn't it? For any election projection formula to be accurate, one of two conditions must be met. Either the data used in the calculations
must be reasonably accurate, or the formula must correctly compensate for inaccurate data.
In Election Projection's case, I firmly believe neither condition was met this year, especially in the House. Polling data was very scarce, and
the polls that were available were largely suspect in my view. Moreover, the political pundits on whom I relied heavily in my House projections
see a much gloomier outlook than I believe is warranted. Combine those two factors and you have a some heavily skewed projections.
So here is The Blogging Caesar's official position on these mid-term elections. I predict the GOP will lose a net 11 seats in the House and
a net 3 seats in the Senate. At most, I say the GOP loses 18 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. That's where I stand.
Furthermore, if my projection turns out to be on the money, I will mark it down as dumb luck and a lesson learned and consider myself wrong about
Election 2006.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:00am 11/07/06
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Monday, November 6, 2006
The overlooked factor
Here at Election Projection, I've touted the GOP Get-Out-The-Vote machine as being THE factor in determining who will win the day
tomorrow. (Aside: Holding the House and Senate - even by one vote - will be a GOP win in my view.) This is absolutely the case.
However, amid all the talk of the 72-hour task force and the alleged depressed GOP base, one factor might have been overlooked, or at least taken for granted.
That is the Democratic GOTV.
Most pundit scenarios, including mine, depend on all those angry liberals and Democrats actually getting out there and voting. This is just a
thought, but what happens if the Democrats have a down day tomorrow in terms of voter turnout? I believe GOP turnout will be strong for a mid-term,
even approaching 2002 when the GOP took the majority in the Senate and added a few seats to their majority in the House. If that is the case, the
Democrats will need a monstrous effort to fulfill the promise thought to be in hand just a little while ago.
Do I sound over-confident? I assure you I am not. Given the political climate facing the GOP, an outcome much closer to
Stuart Rothenberg's prediction than to mine is certainly possible, and we will need a herculean GOTV effort in these last
few hours to avert it. On the other hand, I think all this talk of an electorate itching to banish all things Bush may be just that - talk.
Update:
"Right now, nobody should rule anything out" - Jim
Geraghty. Indeed.
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:20pm 11/06/06
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Sunday, November 5, 2006
Generics are a-tightenin'
The last three generic polls
released by Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post, and Pew Research show Democratic leads of 7%, 6%, and 4%, respectively. These are much closer than
the high-teens we saw in last month's batch of generics. At somewhere between 5 and 6 points, this deficit is manageable for the GOP. While
I put little stock in the ability of these national polls to predict the outcome of individual races, I do believe the tightening numbers signify the
end of the blue tsunami threat.
Stuart Rothenberg, whose projections of doom for the GOP are loud and severe, is
standing by his prediction that the GOP will
lose between 34 and 40 seats in the House. If you've
read this blog for long, you know that I decreed that the GOP would keep both the House and
the Senate. I have never retracted those edicts during these past six months - even when they
appeared to be complete fantasy. Indeed, to the likes of Mr. Rothenberg, they undoubtedly still are.
However, with so many races within just a point or two of going in either direction, I just don't see the kinds of gains my more professional
colleague does. Right now, my projection forecasts a loss of 24 GOP House seats on Tuesday (that's from the latest
daily update). This is 10 more than the GOP can afford to lose and retain the House. Yet of these, no
less than fourteen are within two points. Given the momentum moving in the Republicans' direction and the track record of election
conventional wisdom, I'd say the GOP actually has a fair chance of proving The Blogging Caesar right. Even if the House is lost, I will be very
surprised if the Democrats gain more than 17 to 19 seats.
Well, there you have it. Either Stuart Rothenberg or yours truly is going to look really bad in just a couple of days!
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 11/05/06
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