The main reason for the Democrats continued gains this year is not hard to pinpoint.  The fact that they were able to recruit excellent candidates in many of their first and second tier targets certainly helped, but, more importantly, the gains they realized all come back to the difficulty the GOP has had getting the electorate to differentiate the Republican brand from a bad case of indigestion.  A political party just cannot hope to perform well when people's perception of it is so poor.

Talk has been constant and widespread in conservative circles since the election about how to recreate the Republican Party.  How well Republicans diminish the dominating blue waves of the recent past will be largely determined by how they improve their reputation over the next 24 months.  On the positive side, impressions do tend to improve for the party out of control.  The spotlight tends to shine less brightly on those not controlling the agenda.  With George W. Bush no longer in the White House and decreased influence on Capitol Hill, the GOP will have the opportunity to rebuild itself outside the expectant glare of public scrutiny.

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With six takeovers in the bag and three more possibilities looming, the Democrats in the Senate enjoyed an historic election this year.  Only a handful of elections over the last 60 years witnessed this kind of change in the balance of power.  And the fact that only one Democratic seat was even remotely close adds to the completeness of the victory.  The Democrats will have at least 56 solid seats in the upper chamber in 2009, not counting Joe Lieberman whose partisan alliance is cloudy at this point.  Add in Lieberman and several moderate to liberal GOP senators, and the bloc of votes against any GOP filibuster can easily surpass 60 - even without the three seats still left to be settled.  So the Democrats may not attain a filibuster-proof majority per se, but they will for sure have a filibuster-resistant majority.

Here are some thoughts and observations about selected Senate races:

A Perfect Storm:  President George W. Bush has approval ratings mired in the high twenties.  The United States is fighting a war in Iraq which, though things have improved substantially in recent months, remains unpopular to the American people.  A constant drumbeat of depressing economic headlines dominates the news cycles.  And the Republican brand staggers beneath the weight of it all.

These were the circumstances in which the Election of 2008 was held.  To say that John McCain faced an uphill road to the White House greatly understates his challenge.  Against a weaker opponent running a poor campaign and absent a mainstream media apparatus bent swaying the election against him, the GOP nominee would have had a difficult time winning.  But given the fact that McCain enjoyed none of these things, this race was all but over before it started.  Now, before my liberal friends get all riled up at me for belittling Obama's momentous accomplishment, please keep reading - credit will be given where credit is due.

A Perfect Campaign:  Barack Obama was, in my opinion, the strongest Democratic nominee in my lifetime (that goes back to the 1968 election, in case you're wondering).  Unlike some of my conservative blogger friends, I don't think Obama's intelligence is dwarfed by his oratory skills.  The man, as everyone knows, can deliver a humdinger of a speech, but he also displayed the ability to grasp the issues and make the stances he espoused his own - even if they were expressed with a kind of academic rhetoric that belied fresh and quickly-accumulated knowledge.

Yet his smarts were most evident, not in the words he spoke, but in the campaign he ran.  With the exception of the "spread the wealth" comment near the end, his was a campaign without major gaffs.  (I won't count Joe Biden's missteps.  The shear frequency of his gaffs quite probably serves to insulate him from their potential repercussions.)  Throughout the campaign, Obama stayed on message, stayed under control, and, near the end, stayed away from press conferences and interviews.  It was a disciplined, effective plan that validated his candidacy and fueled a growing momentum that carried him to victory.  In short, it was as near a perfect campaign as I can remember.

The Media Greenhouse:  Even though Obama and his campaign were formidable, their numerous vulnerabilities were shielded by a greenhouse-like canopy of soft investigation and scandal-deflecting coverage by the mainstream media.  While the McCain/Palin team was subject to platoons of journalists probing every conceivable shortcoming, Obama's potential gotchas were neatly minimized and explained away.  Indeed when his connections to and dealings with the likes of Tony Rezco, Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn were raised, the coverage in the mainstream media focused more on trashing the accuser than on investigating the merits of the accusations.  The fact that I hesitate to even bring this up for fear of being thought of as a Republican shrill confirms just how well their ploy has worked.  Nevertheless, no honest evaluation of this election can be full without pointing to the advantage Obama enjoyed courtesy of the mainstream media.

The Nonexistent Bradley Effect:  As election night progressed and the outcome became apparent, I breathed a sigh of relief even as my man's fortunes grew ever more bleak.  Pre-election polls, it turned out, were more or less on target.  Sure, there was an outlier here and there, but the aggregate result was very accurate.  A good night for the pollsters, but an even better night, in one sense, for America.  No, I'm not a closet Obama supporter heralding a Democrat's success.  What I am is a racism hater.  Like many others, I waited anxiously to see if the polls would reveal a lingering bias against an African-American candidate - if there were still a substantial number of whites who voice support for Obama when answering a survey, but vote against him when casting that anonymous ballot.

We all know now that the Bradley Effect, as that phenomenon is known, had no effect this time.  Of course, my comments beg an intriguing question.  Would I rather have seen a large Bradley Effect usher John McCain into the White House?  Honestly, probably so - after all, I am as red as they come.  But I can absolutely take solace in the fact that my country is continuing to loosen the grip of the shackles of racism with every passing year.  On Tuesday night, hearing Juan Williams choke back the tears on Fox News when Obama's victory became certain and even watching tears stream down the face of Jesse Jackson, I felt a warm and glowing feeling rise in my heart in spite of myself.  I might as well say it again.  Congratulations, President Obama.

Conservatism didn't lose:  Early on after the last election in 2006, I expressed on this blog my feeling that John McCain was the best GOP candidate to take on the Democratic nominee this election.  I felt that, for the reasons I stated above, McCain's appeal to moderates and independents and his ability to differentiate himself from the battered Republican brand gave him the best shot at keeping the White House in GOP hands.  I know many of my conservative friends will vehemently disagree with my assertions in this regard, but I stand firm in that belief.  History now shows that even McCain could not stifle the oncoming Democratic wave and the charisma of Barack Obama.  (Neither Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, nor even Thompson could have either.)

If there is a silver lining in the presidential election outcome, it is the fact that conservatism did not lose the presidency this year.  In fact, conservatism did not even run for president.  The platform of Ronald Reagan was nowhere to be seen.  Looking forward, conservatives can enter the next cycle encouraged and energized with the idea that the conservative message is untarnished by defeat.  Someone like a Bobby Jindal can enter the presidential stage in four years claiming accurately that a true conservative has not been given the chance this century to run, to win and to govern.  If a conservative had won the nomination this year, that chance would have been forfeited to Obama's inevitable triumph.

Tomorrow:  Election 2008 - the turning points

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Notes:  Obama's 7-point win in the popular vote was almost exactly what my formula projected.  Also, I did not break out Nebraska's EVs by congressional district.  As a result, I did not project Obama winning the electoral vote from Omaha's district.  Grade:  A-

Senate:  Two years ago, Election Projection did not miss a single Senate race.  This year, however, a convicted felon was the demise of that perfect record.  Alaskans somehow thought it appropriate to re-elect GOP Senator Ted Stevens even though he was recently convicted on several felony counts in a court of law.  Go figure.  Still, 34 out of 35 is a very good showing in my opinion.  (I am assuming here that Norm Coleman's very close victory over Al Franken in Minnesota will hold up after a recount.)  Grade:  A

Governors:  The Blogging Caesar perfectly projected the outcome of all gubernatorial races this year.  Granted, there were only eleven on tap and all but one or two were hotly-contested.  Nevertheless, it's nice to go eleven for eleven.  Grade:  A

House:  Out of 435 races, I identified sixty-seven as "hotly-contested." In the end, all the party takeovers in House races came from this list, save one - Virginia CD-5.  House races are traditionally much more difficult to project, so I'm not surprised there were more misses here than in the other categories.  I am encouraged that among the 14 races I didn't call correctly, the party affiliations were random.  Here's what I mean.  The Democrats picked up four seats which I designated as GOP holds and lost two seats which I had them retaining.  The GOP held seven seats which I had projected to go to the Democrats and did not gain one seat that I thought they would.  Overall, these result attest to the unbiased nature of my formula and to the very inexact science that is House race prognosticating.  Still, I missed just 14 of 435 races.  That works out to almost 97% accuracy, so I can't be too displeased.  Grade:  B/B-

Tomorrow:  Obama's victory, an indepth look

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Update (1:00am):  What a night!  And what a long, arduous, exhilarating, sometimes frustrating, exhausting road for Mrs. Blogging Caesar and me.  I have cherished your readership along the way, and I am deeply grateful to the 1274 of you who signed up for Election Projection Premium Content.  Let me also take time this night to say thank you to my kids who have had limited time with me over the last two months.  Hey guys, you get your dad back now!

Tonight we watched a tremendous and monumental event unfold before us.  No longer will the United States of America be known as a nation who has never elected a black man president.  I am very happy for Barack Obama and his family and for blacks all across our country - but not just for them.  May tonight be a testimony to the progress we have made in overcoming the petty difference of skin color.  I disagree deeply with Barack Obama's positions and ideology, but he will be my president.  I do hope with all that is in me that he will be a one-term president, and I dread what may happen during next four years with unbridled liberal power ruling Washington.  Nevertheless, I cannot fault the process that led us to this night.  The American way was on full display today.  And that, my friends, is a very good thing - even if I didn't like the results.

Update (11:00pm):  Congratulations Barack Obama, President-elect of the United States of America.

Update (9:50pm):  I'll be focusing on keeping up with presidential and senate results for another hour or so.  After that, I want to turn my attention toward House races.  So far, the Democrats have picked up a couple of seats and are ahead in many others that they should pick up.

Update (9:20pm):  Ohio has been called for Obama - that wraps it up.  The rest, at least in the presidential contest, is academic.

Update (9:00pm):  At 9:00, things are moving along as I have projected.  The jury is still out on the state I noted earlier, but I feel pretty good with my projections to this point.  Of course, I don't like the results at this point - and they will probably only get worse once the House races begin to be decided.

Update (7:50pm):  Results are coming in now.  I'm working feverishly to keep up.  So far, nothing unexpected is coming out of the numbers.  Obama will win by a solid margin.  State which concern me with regard to my projections are North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri.  Any or all could go for Obama and prove me wrong in my projected McCain victories.

Update (6:35pm):  In 25 minutes, the first polls will close.  I'm frantically preparing pages to track the results throughout the night.  Please check out the Election Night Resources section to the right.  I'll be getting those resources up to speed over the next hour so that I can begin posting results.

Update (5:10pm):  I'm currently working on a couple of election night resources I believe you'll enjoy.  I'll try to have them posted by 6:30pm and begin posting frequent updates after that.  Win or lose, it's going to be an incredible ride.  Here's hoping you'll join me!

The projected Senate gain for the Democrats is down by one today as Norm Coleman was able to move ahead of Al Franken, again by the narrowest of margins.  Their race in Minnesota should be the closest Senate race in the nation.  All the projected Democratic takeovers - 7 total - range from a certain blowout in Virginia to close but definite advantages in North Carolina and Oregon.  I'd be very surprised to see the Democrats take less than seven seats in the Senate and not at all surprised to see them take eight by winning in Minnesota.

After flirting with two gubernatorial victories in North Carolina and Washington, the GOP now appears to be headed to defeats in those two states.  A projected landslide Democratic win in Missouri will produce the only party-switcher in statehouse races.

Finally, there's the House.  Pundits across the board are expecting Democratic gains ranging from twenty seats to the high thirties.  The tally here lines up well with those prognostications.  After a net gain this morning of one additional seat, the Democrats are projected to win 28 GOP seats against just three Republican victories in Democratic districts.  That net pickup of 25 seats will give the Democrats a vast 261-174 margin for 2009 and 2010.

If my projections hold true, the next two years will be the most lopsided in terms of partisan power in Washington in over a generation.

Here are my plans for Election Day.  This afternoon, I plan to start gathering the predictions of other website and posting them in tabular form.  Later this evening, I'll be posting results as they come in and matching them against my projections.  All along, I'll be live-blogging the day's festivities and frequently updating this post.  Be sure to come back often to see how the numbers are coming in.

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During the week last week, the Senate tally changed by one in favor of the GOP when Norm Coleman temporarily jumped back on top of Al Franken in Minnesota.  That lead couldn't last until this update, though, and Franken is back in the lead today.

North Carolina's Governor's Mansion is projected to stay in Democratic hands this morning.  Beverly Perdue leads Pat McCrory by a single point, erasing the GOP's lone statewide takeover in last week's projections.  The gubernatorial counts stands at 29-21 in favor of the Democrats.  That's a gain of one statehouse for them.

In the House, another two seats are in the Democratic fold today - California CD-4 and Idaho CD-1.  These two party flips bring the projected advantage for the Democrats in the House to 85 and enable them to reach the 260 mark.  After nearly three dozen takovers in 2006, they are projected to gain another two dozen tomorrow.  That's a tremendous back-to-back feat for congressional Democrats.

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