November 4, 2014
Track the 2014 Races
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2014 Election News
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Last night's Georgia primary runoff election cemented the GOP nominee, David Perdue, and allowed me to move the
2014 Georgia Senate election
from a preliminary
projection to an official one. As a result, Democrat Michelle Nunn is now projected ahead of Perdue thanks to her aggregate
0.5% lead in the last two polls here. The change reduces the net Republican pickup in the Senate to just 3 seats - 3 short of
the mark they'll need to regain the majority. Today's Senate tally stands at 48 Republicans
and 2 Independents
The good news doesn't stop there for the blue team. On the
2014 Governor elections
summary page, EP's latest map features a
blue Florida, heralding Democrat Charlie Crist's new lead over Republican incumbent Rick Scott. With this update, the projected
Republican gubernatorial majority is reduced by one. The projected tally stands at
and 22 Democrats
Back on June 10, the projections offered a much different outlook. Senate Republicans were projected to win
and win the majority, while Republicans were also looking
at a projected gain in governors of two seats
GOP fortunes are not indicative of a coming red wave and further bolster my current conviction that 2014 may be a
That said, there is
still plenty of time for the GOP to gain momentum - President Obama's
dismal approval numbers
continue to provide potential fuel for that - but, as
things stand now, Democrats must be feeling pretty good about their situation in this sixth-year midterm election.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:41pm 07/23/14 :: link
David Perdue, cousin of former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, surprised pollsters yesterday by claiming a narrow victory over
Congressman Jack Kingston in the Republican Senate primary runoff. Kingston led the polls going in by a half dozen, so Perdue's
win was unexpected.
Now that the nominees have been decided for both parties, look for this race to increase in intensity. As one of just two
possible Democratic takeovers in the Senate, it was already bound to attract some interest. However, with Michelle Nunn, the
Democratic nominee, polling very well
I'm sure it will garner even more attention both in the state and nationally.
Democrats may be poised to enjoy some success in this red state this year. Unique circumstances, rather than a
long term trend, are more to credit, I believe. Powerhouse names on both the Senate and governor lines shore up their
possibilities, and an ethics investigation in the statehouse
helps out, too. In what should be a strong Republican year, Georgia may turn out to be an unlikely bright spot for the blue team.
The numbers for this race here at Election Projection will be updated this evening after I post the daily
projection update. The projection currently is still just preliminary. You can track this race on the
Georgia Senate election
get a covenient at-a-glance look at all the Senate races on EP's
2014 Senate elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:42am 07/23/14 :: link
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
The GOP senate primary runoff today in Georgia will determine who will run against Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn. The two
Republicans battling for that honor are Jack Kingston, a congressman who represents the Savannah-area 1st district and David Perdue, cousin of former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue.
Congressman Kingston a small edge just outside the margin of error.
Notably, both Kingston and Perdue have fallen behind Nunn in
general election polling
Peach State is shaping up to be an expected headache for Republicans this year. Democrats enjoy a super-heavyweight combo,
at least from a name recognition standpoint, with Sam Nunn's daughter on the Senate line and Jimmy Carter's grandson running for
Correction: The post previously and erroneously included Congressman Paul Broun as Kingston's primary opponent. That error
has been corrected.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:13am 07/22/14 :: link
Monday, July 21, 2014
|This article was published at
PJMedia.com on Friday, July 18,
2014. NOTE: Some of the numbers have changes since I originally wrote it.
Four months from now, we'll be looking back on Election 2014 evaluating the votes and how they were cast. Will Republicans succeed in their quest to gain the majority in the Senate, or will Democrats weather the six-year itch and retain control? With primary season taking a month-long break, it seems a good time to pause and look back on how the election season has progressed so far. There have been plenty of intriguing storylines surrounding the 36 Senate races on tap this year. Here are four that have caught my attention.
Tea Party influence in Senate races comes up short
A popular theme all year has been the numerous failures of the Tea Party movement. Media outlets have been quick to herald the disappointments as an indication of Tea Party decline. Some conservatives, however, like to point to certain situations where this is simply not true. They say that narrative is just wishful thinking by a liberal media hoping to temper the Tea Party's effect and hasten, if possible, its demise.
They point to Eric Cantor's primary defeat to unknown Tea Party challenger Dave Brat last month as evidence of the earth-shaking punch the Tea Party still packs. To be sure, Cantor's loss rocked the electoral landscape – and the GOP leadership – but as PJ Media's David Steinberg pointed out, the shocking result came about through a perfect storm of many circumstances, only one of which was Brat’s Tea Party backing.
While House primary elections have produced Tea Party successes, and, fundamentally, the Tea Party continues to change "the dynamic of Republican politics," the fact that several Senate primaries have been disappointing to Tea Party enthusiasts is undeniable. And the list is not short: Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, Thad Cochran in Mississippi, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, even John Cornyn in Texas. All won the GOP nomination in races where the Tea Party had high hopes going into the 2014 election season. In North and South Carolina, efforts to nominate a Tea Party candidate couldn't even force a runoff against the establishment favorite.
Terri Land's fast start fizzles in Michigan
Democrats have dominated Senate elections in Michigan since current Senator Debbie Stabenow unseated Republican Spencer Abraham in 2000. Between 2002 and 2012, she and senior Michigan Senator Carl Levin never won reelection by less than 15 points. So when Public Policy Polling released a poll back in December giving Republican Terri Land a two-point lead in the race to replace Levin, Republicans cheered the prospect of a competitive race in a state void of GOP Senate election success so far this century.
Polling early this year did nothing to quench Republican excitement. Six of the first eight polls of 2014 put Land ahead of the Democratic nominee, Congressman Gary Peters. Until April, this race clearly leaned in the GOP's direction and represented an unexpected pickup opportunity that threatened to make Democrats' task of holding the Senate in a difficult year that much more challenging.
But the arrival of spring ushered in Peters' striking resurgence. All seven polls released since mid-April give him leads ranging from 3 to 9 points. As a result, Election Projection projects Peters will triumph with a 5.6% margin of victory. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to follow outgoing Senator Levin and keep this seat in Democratic hands – Land, a former Michigan secretary of state, is a legitimate contender. But what looked early on like a very promising Republican surprise has taken on the characteristics of a hard-fought Democratic hold.
Cory Gardner brings a serious challenge in Colorado
As the election season began to take shape late last year, highly competitive Democratic Senate seats abounded. Mark Udall's seat in Colorado wasn't on the list. Cook Political labeled the race "Likely D" along with such races as Hawaii and Massachusetts. Initially, Republicans were looking at a weak field of potential challengers. While the incumbent's job approval suggested potential vulnerability, Republicans did not appear to have a candidate to exploit that possibility.
That all changed on March 1st when Colorado Congressman Cory Gardner announced he would mount a run. Gardner quickly surged to a commanding lead among Republican contenders, and when the primary field subsequently got out of the way, he enjoyed the further benefit of avoiding a prolonged nomination battle.
Since Gardner's entrance into the race, polls have revealed an ever-tightening contest. In fact, taken together, the two latest polls, both conducted in June, give Gardner a fractional advantage. Election Projection has Colorado colored red on the latest Senate map as a result. And in response to Gardner's candidacy, political handicappers have made similar adjustments as illustrated by Charlie Cook's rating. Colorado is now classified as a "Toss-up."
Udall remains a formidable incumbent who likely still holds a slight upper hand, but this race has a completely different feel to it since Gardner jumped in.
Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia – steady as she goes
In contrast to the shuffling that has marked Senate races in Michigan and Colorado over the first half of 2014, the Senate races in three other states have maintained the same outlook all along. Senate Republicans' task of capturing the majority requires them to gain a net 6 seats in November. Most likely, that job is effectively half-accomplished already. Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, barring drastic unforeseen developments, will be won by Republicans this year.
In Montana, the retirement of long-time Democratic Senator Max Baucus gave Republicans a golden opportunity to pick up his seat. When Baucus resigned earlier this year to become U.S. ambassador to China, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock appointed his lt. governor, John Walsh, to serve the remainder of Baucus’ term. Walsh is running for election in his own right, but Republican Steve Daines, Montana’s at-large congressman, has enjoyed double-digit leads in every poll since November last year.
Like Baucus in Montana, Tim Johnson's retirement opened the door for Republicans in South Dakota. And when former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, a Democrat, decided not to challenge for the seat and former Governor Mike Rounds, a Republican, did, the race was all but over. Rounds was an overwhelming favorite the minute he announced, and with polls giving him consistent double-digit leads over Democrat Rick Weiland, he remains the overwhelming favorite.
Finally there's West Virginia, where a dramatic rightward lurch over the last generation and the retirement of a West Virginia institution, Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller, combine to give Republicans another almost certain takeover. Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore-Capito, the best person for the task, announced way back in November 2012. Less than two months later, Rockefeller announced his retirement. From that point, Capito was the odds-on favorite, and recent polls confirm nothing has changed. Election Projection currently rates this race a Strong GOP Gain for Capito against her Democratic opponent, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.
With Republicans poised to hold onto the majority in the House and among the nation's statehouses, the biggest question of the 2014 election is who will control the Senate come January 2015. Based on what these storylines tell us, the answer is still very much up in the air.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:50pm 07/21/14 :: link
Friday, July 18, 2014
Republican Nathan Deal, incumbent governor of Georgia, is facing an ethics investigation at a most inopportune time. There is
never a good time to be the subject of an investigation, but during a re-election campaign is just about the worst. Deal's bid for
another term should not be difficult. However, investigations usually complicate things, and a recent poll on the race bears
Landmark Communications released a poll that indicates Deal is struggling, and the beneficiary is Democratic nominee Jason
Carter. The poll gives former President Jimmy Carter's grandson an 8-point lead - just enough to offset last month's
InsiderAdvantage survey and give him a fractional lead in the
Georgia governor election
the Peach State to blue on the latest governors map.
In other news relating to the
2014 governor elections
, two races
are closer than expected if today's polling report
Republican Governor Mary Fallin is only 5 points ahead of Democrat Joe Dorman in the
Oklahoma governor election
the likely Democratic nominee for
Martha Coakley, is but 3 points clear of her likely Republican opponent, Charlie Baker. Though both races are in states whose
ideology is decidedly partisan, they also have a history of voting for minority party chief executives.
Carter's advance leaves the projected governor tally at 29 Republicans
. That's identical to the current partisan makeup of the nation's statehouses.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:01pm 07/18/14 :: link
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Like a pendulum, the balance of power in the Senate continues its ebb and flow. Just last Wednesday, Republicans could claim
51 seats on EP's Senate projection map
. That number fell to 50 the next day when Democrat Mary Landrieu swung back on top in the
Louisiana Senate election
projected Republican fortunes have fallen another notch. But I must say, I'm not entirely surprised by today's flip.
Cory Gardner, the upstart Republican candidate running against Democratic incumbent Mark Udall in the
2014 Colorado Senate election
captured a small lead when a late-June
gave him a one-point
edge in the race. That lead evaporated with the release of a poll from NBC News/Marist. Udall enjoys a seven-point
lead in this latest survey. As a result, the Election Projection for the race moves from
Weak GOP Gain
to Weak DEM Hold
. Udall is clearly in a much
more difficult race than he expected before Gardner announced his candidacy - and one he could certainly lose - but my hunch is the
current projection giving him a slight lead is probably on the mark...for now.
The projected Senate tally
stands at 49 Democrats
and 49 Republicans
who caucus with the Democrats.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:56pm 07/15/14 :: link
Amid a slow month on the election scene, two states, Alabama and North Carolina, are holding primary runoffs today. There
aren't many federal and statewide races left to be decided, but two open Republicans seats do feature runoffs that will most likely
determine who will get to represent their districts in the House.
Republican voters in Alabama CD 6, home of outgoing Congressman Spencer Bachus, will choose between state Representative
Paul DeMarco and Gary Palmer. In North Carolina, the GOP runoff for Howard Coble's 6th district seat pits Rockingham County
D.A. Phil Berger, Jr. against Mark Walker. Neither seat is in danger of going to the Democrats regardless of today's winners.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05am 07/15/14 :: link
Thursday, July 10, 2014
This might get old between now and Election Day - if it hasn't already - but the projected Senate majority has changed hands once
again. Rasmussen just published a poll of the
Louisiana Senate election
which gives a 3-point edge to incumbent
Democrat Mary Landrieu. As a result, the Election Projection for that race moves from Weak GOP Gain
to Weak DEM Hold
in today's update.
The projected tally now stands at 50 Republicans
and 2 Independents
. Since both Independents caucus with the Democrats,
the two major party caucuses have 50 seats each. However, since Vice President Joe Biden would cast the deciding vote in the
event of a tie, the effective
majority rests with the blue team.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:43pm 07/10/14 :: link
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
I found a good number of recent House polls that I hadn't added to my House race calculations. You can find them on EP's
2014 House polls
page. They didn't impact the
House election projections
much, however. Just one race -
- saw a rating change. An Emerson University poll
giving Republican challenger Richard Tisei a 5-point lead over incumbent Democrat John Tierney shifted the projection for the race from
Mod DEM Hold
to Weak DEM Hold
. No other rating changes came out of today's update, so the projected balance of power in the Senate, House and governorships all were unchanged.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:49pm 07/08/14 :: link
Monday, July 7, 2014
In the last several weeks, the projected Senate majority here at Election Projection has moved back and forth. Today, with the
surprise flip of Colorado
, Republicans are back on top in the
projections. Before fans of the GOP get too excited, however, I feel a caveat is in order. The two
Colorado Senate polls
used to come up with this new projection are one
from Rasmussen, who has a track record of being too optimistic for Republican candidates - especially in Senate races, and Magellan
Strategies, a partisan Republican polling firm.
That's not to say the projection should be dismissed out of hand; it just merits some suspicion. Cory Gardner, the
Republican in the race, is a strong challenger to Democratic incumbent Mark Udall, to be sure. I'm just not convinced he's
leading the race right now.
Coincidentally (maybe?), the same two polling firms
also comprise all the data in the Arkansas Senate election
another projected GOP pickup. I'll be glad to see other sources release polls on these races to see whether Rasmussen and
Magellan are confirmed or contradicted.
With this update, the Senate election projections
, 47 Democrats
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:44pm 07/07/14 :: link
Today we are exactly 120 days from Election Day, 2014. With Independence Day behind us, the
buildup toward November 4 should be steady from here on in. I hope everyone had a
meaningful and safe July 4 holiday celebrating what is still the greatest country on earth, our United
States of America.
As we kick off this post-holiday summer stretch, I thought it would be a good time to assess the
status of the electoral landscape. Despite the likelihood of strong Republican gains in the Senate,
the political waters remain relatively calm. Democrats still hold a slight advantage in
generic Congressional polling
, making a
wave election in the House of Representatives highly unlikely at this point. Even in the Senate,
where Republicans hope to pick up enough seats to take the majority, Election Projection's summary of
the 2014 Senate elections
them falling just short.
All year, three states have been looking like certain Republican pickups, and nothing in
indicates any change in
that assessment. Republicans should gain all three and raise their seat count in the Senate to
48. But though opportunities abound for additional takeovers, their prospects of getting to
51 - based on recent polling data - is shaky at best.
Arkansas and Louisiana sport a red shade on EP's
Senate projection map
, indicating a
Republican gain, but neither is a sure thing. In
, Republican nominee Tom
Cotton is enjoying the benefit of a partisan Magellan poll and a Rasmussen poll to claim a narrow lead
over Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. A Magellan poll is also the impetus for Bill Cassidy's
current lead against Mary Landrieu in
Two other juicy targets for the GOP, Mark Begich in
and Kay Hagan in
lead their respective
Republican opponents. Without a less likely victory in a state like
, Republicans must win these
two to reach that coveted 51-seat mark. But it might take even more than that given the
rumblings of a certain southern belle.
Down in Georgia
, it looks like
Congressman Jack Kingston should win the runoff for the GOP nomination against David Purdue.
Trouble is, Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn is
of Kingston right now, and
this race is looking more and more like one Nunn could win.
Not much has changed on the House front over the last several weeks. Come to think of it,
that'll probably be the story all year long - even after the votes have been counted. With the
GOP holding the upper hand by a 234-201 tally, Democrats appear likely to withstand the dreaded
6-year itch without substantial losses in the lower chamber. I've said this before, but it bears
repeating. Legitimate pickup opportunities for either party just aren't that plentiful this year.
The current 2014 House election
projections here at EP have the GOP gaining 3 seats -
North Carolina CD-7
and Utah CD-4
. Democrats are
projected to add four GOP seats to their numbers -
New York CD-11
together, these gains represent a net improvement of one seat for the blue team. Don't be
surprised to see a similar projection here on November 4.
Historically speaking, this should be a very good election for the GOP. However, unless
Republicans can do a better job of connecting Democrats to
President Obama's dismal job approval
articulating a better alternative, it looks like this year might be a golden opportunity largely squandered.
Statehouse races are traditionally less partisan than Senate or House contests. It is much
more likely in today's polarized political world to see a governor than a senator or representative from the
minority party. EP's
2014 governor election
to illustrate that point. Of the three projected Republican pickups, two are in deep blue
states - Illinois
On the other hand, Arkansas'
increasingly Republican lean is a major factor in that state's projected switch to red team.
Democrats will have a very difficult time holding the governorship without an incumbent running.
Two positives are there for Democrats, however. It looks like Pennsylvania Governor Tom
Corbett is on his way out
Struggling against approval ratings even worse than President Obama, Corbett is a heavy underdog at
this point to Democrat Tom Wolf.
And in Maine
, Republican incumbent Paul
LePage isn't in nearly as bad a shape as Corbett, but he's locked in a very tough battle,
nonetheless. Congressman Mike Michaud leads three-way polling over LePage by a small margin
with Independent Eliot Cutler pulling a strong 15% of the vote.
As I mentioned above, Republicans at the present time are projected to win the statehouse in
Illinois and Hawaii. However, this is only July and both those states are heavily
Democratic. I know I claimed that gubernatorial races are less partisan, but party ID still
matters. I have my doubts, especially in Hawaii, that the Republican candidate will maintain the
lead until voting starts.
I took the week off last week for the most part. God willing, it will be the last break for me
between now and Election Day. So look for lots of election coverage here at EP for the
duration. Even if this year turns out to be indeed a status-quo election, there is still plenty of
excitement to be had. And, who knows, a lot of time remains for the political winds to muster a
Look for the next update of the numbers this evening.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:51am 07/07/14 :: link
Monday, June 30, 2014
Today's numbers are posted. I found a few interesting results to point out among the
. First, SurveyUSA has a poll out of Kansas giving Democrat Paul Davis a surprising
6-point lead over incumbent Republican Governor Sam Brownback. Time will tell if that poll is an outlier or indicative of an
unexpectedly difficult re-election bid for Brownback. Kansas does have a history, despite its deep red nature, of electing
Democrats to the statehouse, so Brownback would be wise to take Davis' challenge very seriously. You can get the details on
this race on the Kansas Governor election
Second, Rasmussen's latest poll testing the
Colorado Senate election
puts Republican challenger Cory Gardner just
a single point behind incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall. Rasmussen's track record of late has been suspect, but an April
Quinnipiac poll found the same one point separating Udall and Gardner. It looks like Republicans may have a legitimate takeover
opportunity in the Rocky Mountain State this year.
Finally, a poll by the conservative-leaning Civitas organization gives Kay Hagan a four-point lead over Republican Thom
Tillis in the North Carolina Senate election
. As a result,
the Democratic incumbent is projected to keep the seat for the blue team, reducing the GOP's projected Senate gain to just 5 seats - one
less than they need for the majority. Projected tally: 50 Republicans
, 2 Independents
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:52pm 06/30/14 :: link
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Thad Cochran is comfortably ahead with just 14.8% of the vote in. His 10-point cushion by no means signals it's in the bad for
him, but he's got to be feeling confident. If the current status holds, it will be a very disappointing result for the Tea Party.
With 76% in, the margin has tightened considerably. Cochran still leads but McDaniel has closed
the gap to just 3 points. It seems doubtful enough votes remain outstanding for McDaniel to overtake the incumbent, but that
isn't outside the realm of possibility.
Well, the unlikely has become more likely - McDaniel is just 1.4% behind with 20% left to be
counted. Looks like another nail biter.
Cochran will stick around the Senate for another term. He maintains a small lead with almost all
the votes counted.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:09pm 06/24/14 :: link
Election Projection is receiving a lot of traffic today from search engines, so I thought I'd share with you the benefits EP has to offer. If this is your first time visiting Election Projection, let me welcome you! EP has a ten year history of providing some of the most
accurate election predictions you'll find on the internet.
EP's Track Record
Using mathematical formulas, EP projected Bush would win 289 electoral
votes in 2004. He won 286. In 2006, EP picked the GOP to lose the House and correctly called every
race. Despite my own conservative ideology, the site projected a solid victory for Barack Obama in 2008, correctly picking 48 out
of 50 states.
In 2010, Election Projection's House projections were closer than any other major prognosticating website. EP predicted Republicans would bag a net of 64 new seats, a monumental shift in the balance of power. When all the votes were counted, they had gained 63.
Two years ago, Election Projection enjoyed its best presidential prediction year to date, correctly projecting every state except
Florida. In addition, EP's Senate performance was 31 out of 33, and I missed just one gubernatorial election that year.
2014 Election Projection Summaries
For this year's election cycle, Election Projection is back with plenty of useful features. You can check out easy-to-read
summary pages of the 2014 Senate
, the 2014 House elections
and the 2014 gubernatorial races
which offer you at-a-glance overview of the state of the 2014 elections, complete with colorful red and blue maps.
Open Seats and Primary Dates
If your looking for primary election dates
or open seat races
, Election Projection has you covered.
Individual Race Pages
You can also get detailed information on each race I track using EP's handy 2014 Elections on Demand tool at the top of each
page. Each race page contains an election timeline, candidate list, current patisan make up of that state's national delegation
and state government and projection data which allows you to see how I arrive at my projections. As an example, check out the North Carolina Senate Election
2014 Election Polls
Want polling data? Use the same on demand tool to track the polls for all the races as well. Or you can check out the Latest Polls
on everything from President Obama's job approval
to generic congressional preference polls to the latest polls on the Mississippi primary runoff election
to lots of surveys forecasting the Senate, House and gubernatorial races that interest you most.
The site is updated daily
except Sunday with new polls and new projection numbers. I believe you'll find Election Projection to be informative, exciting and
fun as Election Day approaches, and I hope it will become an indispensible election resource. Once again, thanks for stopping by!
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:45pm 06/03/14 :: link
Monday, June 23, 2014
The Portland Press Herald released a poll surveying the 3-way
2014 Maine Governor election
Democrat Mike Michaud leads the poll by 4 points over incumbent Republican Paul LePage, 40-36. Independent candidate, Eliot
Cutler, is a strong third, pulling in 15%.
As a result of this new survery, the
EP poll average
for this race now shows
Michaud up by 2 points, and Election Projection has changed the rating from Weak GOP Hold
Weak DEM Gain
. The new projected pickup in the
2014 gubernatorial elections
the gains at 3 statehouses for each party. The new governors tally is
and 21 Democrats
- that's unchanged from the existing
balance of power.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:07pm 06/23/14 :: link
Tomorrow, voters in 7 states will head to the polls. Five states - Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah - are holding
regular primary elections. Two others - Mississippi and South Carolina - return to cast votes in primary runoffs. The big
contest of the day is the runoff battle in Mississippi between long-time Republican Senator Thad Cocran and Tea Party favorite Chris
McDaniel. Cocran is behind in the latest
EP Poll Average
and would be
the first incumbent senator to lose a primary so far this year if the polls hold true.
I'll begin updating the election pages for all races in these states that I'm tracking here at Election Projection, so be sure to come
back to see how the primary battles affect the general election numbers.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35am 06/23/14 :: link