Current
Projections

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Updated:
Fri. Oct 31, 2014
Senate
Republicans 52
Democrats 45
Independents 3
GOP +7, IND +1
House
Republicans 242
Democrats 193
GOP +8
Governors
Republicans 29
Democrats 20
Independents 1
IND +1
2014 Elections on Demand
Projections
 
Polls
Election Day
November 4, 2014

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Projection Statistics for Thursday's Update

36 New Polls:  13 Senate, 2 House, 14 Governor, 7 Others
59 Pundit Rating Changes:   39 favor GOP, 20 favor DEM
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  GOP +0.3, Previous:  none

Party Switchers
In Democrats' Favor
   California CD-52  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
   Nebraska CD-2  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
   Illinois Governor  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
In Republicans' Favor
   Arkansas CD-2  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
   Illinois CD-10  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain

Other Ratings Changes
In Democrats' Favor
   Florida CD-18  Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
In Republicans' Favor
   Arkansas Senate  Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain
   California CD-31  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
   Minnesota CD-7  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
   New York CD-18  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
   New York CD-21  Mod GOP Gain to Strong GOP Gain

I mentioned in yesterday's notes that there was a big load of pundit rating changes coming for Thursday's update.  Indeed there was!  All four pundits updated their House ratings to the tune of 59 new race ratings.  Republicans enjoyed almost exactly a 2-1 advantage in the latest harvest of rating changes.  The dial moved rightward in 39 races and leftward in 20.  That's a hefty margin, but much less than we saw in 2010 when Republicans would routinely garner 80-90% of the pundits' rating changes.

Here's a breakdown of each expert I use in my House projections.  Charlie Cook updated 10 races, splitting the benefit equally between Republicans and Democrats.  Larry Sabato, who always eliminates his toss-up calls just before the election, offered 22 ratings changes.  Fifteen moved in the direction of the GOP, while seven shifted toward Democrats.  Stuart Rothenberg, who moved nine races out of the competitive category, had the most ratings changes with 16 favoring Republicans against just 7 for Democrats.  Finally, RealClearPolitics, who tends to make more frequent updates, had just four in this latest round.  Three of them favored the GOP.

In addition to all the rating changes, we also have a new generic congressional poll out from CBS News showing Republicans dominating the House landscape by a 50-42 margin.  That survey pushes the generic adjustment to 0.3 points for the GOP.

So what happened to the balance of power in the projected 2014 House elections as a result of all this shuffling?  Interestingly, the overall tally remains 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats as it was after Wednesday's update.

But an unchanged count doesn't mean there weren't races impacted by all the new data.  As you can see from the summary above, Republicans and Democrats both earned two party switchers in their favor and several other races became either more or less competitive.  With 4 days left until Election Day - and four more updates to go - the GOP is projected to gain a net of 8 seats, equaling their 242-193 advantage attained after the red wave elections in 2010.

NOTES

  • This weekend, I'll be adding six new races to the competitive House list and removing one race that isn't so much anymore.  Two additions are currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats.  The race I'm removing is a Democratic seat.
  • With two polls giving him leads of 7 and 13 points, it looks like Tom Cotton may have closed the deal in his bid to claim a takeover in the Arkansas Senate election.  He has led incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor in every mainstream poll published in October.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:21am 10/31/14 :: link
Projection Statistics for Wednesday's Update

39 New Polls:  8 Senate, 12 House, 12 Governor, 7 Others
No Pundit Rating Changes
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  none, Previous:  GOP +0.2

Party Switchers
In Republicans' Favor
   Colorado Governor  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain

Ratings Changes
In Democrats' Favor
   California CD-31  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
   Minnesota CD-7  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
   New Hamp. CD-2  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold

Last evening, the Colorado governor election flipped to red.  A Quinnipiac poll with Republican challenger Bob Beauprez ahead by five caused the aggregate poll average to end up exactly tied.  In such a case, EP's projection formula prescribes a 0.1 percent advantage against the incumbent (Democrat John Hickenlooper, in this case) .  So that's why the Rocky Mountain State is painted red today on the 2014 governor elections map.

Even though I think that policy is reasonable, I'm not sure it would serve EP's accuracy well if the numbers in this race were to stay essentially tied until the final projections.  That's because Colorado polling has a history of underestimating Democratic voters.  One needs look no further than the Senate race here four years ago for a classic example.  Even though Ken Buck lead incumbent Democrat Michael Bennett in 8 of 10 polls conducted within a month of Election Day, Bennett went on to win anyway.

NOTES

  • Republican Mike Rounds appears to have weathered a rough patch in his bid to earn a takeover in the 2014 South Dakota Senate election.  After seeing his lead slip when former Republican Senator Larry Pressler began making noise in early October, Rounds has pushed his lead back into double-digits.
  • Lots of pundit rating changes are on tap for today.  I didn't have time to include them in last evening's update, but my pundit panel has updated plenty of their House race ratings.  It'll be a mixed bag favoring both parties.  That's another sign we aren't seeing a massive wave on the horizon.
  • Fox News released a generic congressional preference poll with Democrats up 1.  That's a shift of 4 points toward the blue team from their last survey two weeks ago.  Three races move in the Democrats' favor on the 2014 House elections page as a result, but no races flip to their side.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:26am 10/30/14 :: link
Projection Statistics for Tuesday's Update

40 New Polls:  12 Senate, 12 House, 12 Governor, 4 Others
No Pundit Rating Changes
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  GOP +0.2, Previous:  GOP +0.1

Party Switchers
In Democrats' Favor
   Alaska Senate  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
In Republicans' Favor
   Georgia Senate  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
   New Hampshire CD-1  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain

Ratings Changes
In Democrats' Favor
   Louisiana Senate  Mod GOP Gain to Weak GOP Gain
In Republicans' Favor
   California CD-31  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
   Minnesota CD-7  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
   Rhode Island Governor  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold

Two Senate races have shed Monday's color for a new one after last evening's update.  But since the two party switchers cancel out each other, the projected balance of power in the 2014 Senate elections remains 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 3 Independents.

The Alaska Senate election is now projected to be a Weak DEM Hold.  Democrat incumbent Senator Mark Begich benefits from an apparent outlier poll giving him a 6-point lead to reclaim the advantage over Republican Dan Sullivan.  I'll discuss outliers and how I've decided to handle them this year in the notes.

Moving in the opposite direction is the Georgia Senate election.  After a short time in the lead, Democrat Michelle Nunn has again relinquished the lead here as Republican David Perdue is now projected to earn a Weak GOP Hold.  I want to reiterate a point I made earlier.  Perdue's newfound success does not imply a victory on Election Day.  Instead, all signs point to a January runoff to decide who will succeed outgoing GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss.

In the House, one race has flipped.  Last night's numbers from the ever-changing New Hampshire 1st District re-rematch between Carol Shea-Porter and Frank Guinta fall in the Republican Guinta's favor.  He is now projected to win by a fraction, pushing this race from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.

But back and forth they go.  Since I began tracking this race in early May, these two have switched places no less than 7 times.  And it wouldn't surprise me if another switch or two comes down between now and next Tuesday.  With Guinta in the lead, for the moment at least, Republicans are projected to enjoy a nice increase in their majority in the 2014 House elections.  The current tally of 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats would be a net gain of 8 seats.

NOTES

  • A word on outliers.  If you were with me last election, you may remember that I incorporated an outlier test in my projection formula which would eliminate polls too far out of the norm.  I am not doing that this year, but I do reserve the right to ignore grossly irregular polls at my discretion any time up to and including Election Projection's final projections on Monday, Election Eve.
  • Speaking of outliers, the polls coming out of New Hampshire have been all over the map.  To illustrate, the two polls in the calculations for NH-CD1 are 10 points apart.  The latest, a University of New Hampshire survey, gives Democrat Shea-Porter a 4-point lead, while the second most recent, from New England College, puts Republican Guinta 6 points ahead.
  • Upset alert?  Hawaii's 1st District is not on my competitive House race list.  However, that will change before the election.  Three of the last four polls from the district have the open seat race between Democrat Mark Takai and Republican Charles Djou exactly tied.  The fourth has Takai up by 7, but that survey is a partisan poll from Democratic-leaning Global Strategy.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:24am 10/29/14 :: link
I'm in the process of migrating Election Projection to a new server to handle Election Day traffic.  For at least the last two cycles, EP has experienced difficulties handling the overwhelming increase in traffic that comes on Election Day.  If you are reading this post, you have reached the new server. Hopefully, the new configuration will be up to EP's Election Day traffic challenge.
Filed under:  Website Administration 
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 10/28/14 :: link
We are now just one week from Election Day, one week from knowing (most of) the losers and winners.  Here are the stats from last evening's update.

New Polls:  56 - 7 Senate, 4 House, 38 Governor, 7 Others
Pundit Rating Changes:  2 - both favor Republicans
Generic Poll Adjustment:  New:  GOP +0.1, Previous:  GOP +0.3

Party Switchers
   In Republicans' Favor
Iowa CD-3  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
Wisconsin Governor  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold

Ratings Changes
   In Democrats' Favor
California CD-31  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Minnesota CD-7  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Hawaii Governor  Mod DEM Hold to Solid DEM Hold
Idaho Governor  Solid GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold
   In Republicans' Favor
Arkansas Governor  Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain
Oregon Governor  Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold

The numbers seem to be moving ever-so-slightly toward the GOP, but the movement is less like a wave and more like a drift.  However, if the GOP winds pick up a bit, they could push a lot of these razor-close races in their favor and make it look like a wave.

As things stand right now, I see the GOP gaining enough seats in the Senate to take the majority - and my hunch is it won't take until December (Louisiana) or January (Georgia) to ensure their advantage.  I expect either North Carolina or New Hampshire to join the six other projected GOP takeovers to be decided on November 4th and Pat Roberts to survive in Kansas.  Even with Georgia and Louisiana undecided, that will give Republicans 51 seats.

I'll be the first to admit I may be viewing the election through rose (as in red) colored glasses.  And, if you're worried, I won't let my hunches impact the numbers I project here at EP.  The calculations here will always be determined by my formula's use of polls and pundit predictions - no exceptions.

NOTES

  • The latest CBS News/NYT/YouGov poll gives GOP Governor Sean Walker a three-point edge over Bill Walker in the Alaska governor election.  That's the first poll to show the incumbent ahead against the independent Walker since Democratic nominee Bryon Mallot joined his ticket.
  • The last two North Carolina Senate polls peg the race between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis exactly tied with Libertarian Sean Haugh siphoning off an average of 6 points.  The North Carolina Senate race is tightening, and it is way too close for either candidate to be breathing easy.
  • We are almost certain to have a December runoff in the Louisiana Senate election.  Republican Rob Maness is polling near 10 percent, essentially assuring that neither Mary Landrieu nor Bill Cassidy will reach 50% +1.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:16am 10/28/14 :: link
Well, the absence of polls on Saturday was more than made up for by yesterday's poll deluge.  Almost six dozen polls fill the latest poll report this morning.  The CBS News/NY Times/YouGov collaboration published their third round of polling.  They have been doing extensive work, surveying many races other pollsters largely overlook, and their results contribute greatly to the large number.  With all the new data, I thought today would be a good day for a few lists.

Top six closest Senate races
1.  Georgia - EP margin:  Nunn +0.3 (DEM Gain)
2.  Kansas - EP margin:  Orman +0.6 (IND Gain)
3.  North Carolina - EP margin:  Hagan +1.6 (DEM Hold)
4.  New Hamp - EP margin:  Shaheen +2.2 (DEM Hold)
5.  Iowa - EP margin:  Ernst +2.4 (GOP Gain)
6.  Colorado - EP margin:  Gardner +2.8 (GOP Gain)

Top six closest House races
1 (tie).  Arkansas CD-2 - EP margin:  Hays +0.3 (DEM Gain)
1 (tie).  California CD-7 - EP margin:  Ose +0.3 (GOP Gain)
1 (tie).  Illinois CD-10 - EP margin:  Schneider +0.3 (DEM Hold)
1 (tie).  NH CD-1 - EP margin:  Shea-Porter +0.3 (DEM Hold)
5.  Illinois CD-12 - EP margin:  Bost +0.4 (GOP Gain)
6 (tie).  California CD-52 - EP margin:  DeMaio +0.5 (GOP Gain)
6 (tie).  Iowa CD-3 - EP margin:  Appel +0.5 (DEM Gain)

Top six closest governor races
1.  Wisconsin - EP margin:  Burke +0.1 (DEM Gain)
2.  Colorado - EP margin:  Hickenlooper +0.8 (DEM Hold)
3 (tie).  Florida - EP margin:  Crist +1.3 (DEM Gain)
3 (tie).  Georgia - EP margin:  Deal +1.3 (GOP Hold)
3 (tie).  Illinois - EP margin:  Rauner +1.3 (GOP Gain)
6.  Kansas - EP margin:  Davis +1.5 (DEM Gain)

The problem with these nail biters, for prognosticators like me, is that they introduce more likelihood of getting the outcome wrong.  A classic example of this occurred in 2008.  That year, Election Projection correctly projected 48 out of 50 states in the presidential elections.  One of the incorrect picks, North Carolina, was projected to go to John McCain by less than one percent.  It ended up going for Barack Obama by less than one percent.  So, even though my projection was within a point or so, I still got it wrong. Oh well...

Come back this evening for a new set of numbers and tomorrow morning for another write up.  Tomorrow will be exactly one week away - anybody else sitting on the edge of their seat?

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:22am 10/27/14 :: link
Strangely, yesterday evening's poll report contains just two presidential approval polls.  With the election just 9 days away, I would think a ton of polls would be released everyday.  Hmm.  Anyway, the shortage of polls does provide me occasion to mention something I've been curious about all year.

Who is Rasmussen polling in their Obama job approval surveys?  They publish a new version everyday, and everyday Obama's approval is several points higher in their poll than in anyone else's.  Take Gallup's daily approval poll for example.  Yesterday's number, 43%, is approaching the highest mark Obama has been at in months.  On the other hand, according to Rasmussen, Obama's approval is 47%.  And that number has stayed above 45% almost every day for months.

It just seems odd for a polling firm whose track record is anything but pro-Democrat.  And compounding the strangeness, Rasmussen claims to poll likely voters, ostensibly the most Republican group in this pro-GOP election cycle, for their surveys, while Gallup samples Americans in general, the least Republican by the same measure.  Yet, Gallup's (and everybody else's) approval number is much lower.

Finally, there seems to be a pattern in the ups and downs of the job approval metric.  Whenever Obama's numbers lag in the Gallup poll, they don't for Rasmussen.  Conversely, as is the case in yesterday's numbers, when his numbers rise according to Gallup, Rasmussen generally has them at a periodic low.  Go figure.

Moving on to actual election news, I'll close with some quick hit observations for your Sunday dose of election analysis.

  • Georgia Senate Election:  Neither candidate has polled outside the margin of error (MOE) in any of the last 10 Georgia Senate election polls.  But Democrat Michelle Nunn's advantage in the majority of them, albeit slight, is enough to earn the projected victory over Republican David Perdue right now.
  • Arkansas Senate Election:  Tom Cotton appears to be moving into breathing easier territory.  In addition to staking out a 6-point lead here at Election Projection, Cotton is the beneficiary of Larry Sabato's recent Arkansas Senate rating change.  Sabato now sees Cotton as a Likely GOP winner.
  • Colorado Senate Elections:  GOP challenger Cory Gardner has led every poll save one here since mid-September.  Democrat incumbent Mark Udall's chances of winning appear to hinge on the tendency of polls coming out of the Rocky Mountain State to underestimate Democratic participation.
  • Louisiana Senate Election:  There is a good possibility that both the Georgia and Louisiana Senate elections will head to a runoff.  Please note that EP's projection is based on the competition between the top two candidates.  Currently, Republican Bill Cassidy (in Louisiana) and Nunn are the projected winners in those two states. Consider that EP's word on who will win in the end - runoff or not.

We'll talk again tomorrow. Nine days to go!

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:19am 10/26/14 :: link
As a way to kick off the countdown this morning, I thought we'd catch up on the party switchers we've seen over the last few days.  Let's start with the 2014 House elections.  A week ago, thanks to a favorable flip in the Maine CD-2 race, Republicans were projected to gain a net 9 seats in the lower chamber.  That was the largest projected gain they've enjoyed so far this year.

Then came Thursday's update.   A not-so-favorable generic congressional preference poll reduced the GOP's advantage in the House projection adjustment and caused three seats to move to the blue column.  One of them was Maine CD-2, which didn't last long as a projected GOP gain.  The second was New Hampshire's 1st District seat, and the third came from Arkansas' 2nd District - a rare competitive GOP seat - where Republican French Hill is battling Democrat Patrick Hays for the open seat of retiring Congressman Tim Griffin.

Accounting for these seats moved the projected balance of power in the House to 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats.  That represents a projected net gain of 6 seat for the GOP - not a wave, to be sure, but still a nice haul given their existing strong majority.

In the Senate, Democrats can claim the only party switcher this week.  Democrat Michelle Nunn has performed better than most expected all year and, lately, polls are starting to show her with a small lead in her Georgia Senate election contest against Republican businessman David Perdue.

A quick perusal of Georiga Senate polls reveals her improving fortunes.  In 12 polls released from early September through the first week of October, Perdue enjoyed the advantage in all but one.  However, Nunn is the one on top in 5 of 8 surveys released since then.  As a result, she is now projected, by a very narrow 1-point margin, to earn a takeover for Democrats.

Hers is the lone bright blue race on the 2014 Senate election map.  But it is, nevertheless, a bright spot in an otherwise difficult year for Senate Democrats.  Republicans boast eight projected takeovers as of today with seats from Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia set to move to the red team if the current numbers hold.

All those projected pickups would give Republicans a 52-seat majority in the Senate - even with Georgia going blue - except for an Independent named Greg Orman.  His campaign in Kansas has been a major thorn in the GOP's side this year.  Though it appeared Republican incumbent Pat Roberts was gaining ground after Orman enjoyed a big lead a few weeks ago, the latest Kansas Senate poll shows Orman maintaining a small but clear lead.

Moving on to the gubernatorial elections, party switchers have abounded this week with at least one showing up each day.  On Monday, Republican Tom Foley started off the barrage by moving ahead of Democratic incumbent Dan Malloy in the Connecticut governor election.  Tuesday showed Democrat John Hickenlooper losing ground to Bob Beauprez in Colorado's governor race.

Wednesday, it was another Republican challenger's opportunity to push into the lead.  This time, Charlie Baker took an unexpected advantage over Martha Coakley in the open Massachusetts governor election.  The next day, Hickenlooper regained the upper hand in Colorado, but Democratic Governor Pat Quinn lost his lead to Bruce Rauner in Illinois.  Finally, on Friday, Republican Sam Brownback, embattled Kansas governor, fell behind Paul Davis again after a short run on top there.

With the week's dust settled, the projected balance of power among the nation's governorships now stands at 28 Republicans, 21 Democrats and 1 Independent.  Despite nine projected takeovers, that tally represents very little change in the current makeup.  Republicans are set to lose a net one chair with the net gain going to Independent Bill Walker in the Alaska governor election.

Well, that's enough for today.  Don't expect everyday's countdown post to be as lengthy as this one - I had a lot to cover to get us all up to date.  However, do expect some electoral observations from me each morning from now until Election Day.  So, y'all come back, y'hear?

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:37am 10/25/14 :: link
We are just 11 days now from Election Day 2014!  Starting tomorrow, Election Projection will begin a 10-day countdown to November 4.  In addition to daily poll reports and projection updates, each day will begin with my reactions to the previous day's calculations.

Ten days, ten posts.  All culminating on Tuesday morning, November 4th with EP's final thoughts and final projections.  Check back everyday to see where the numbers stand and which way they're headed.  And perhaps a bit of electoral insight along the way.

Filed under:  Website Administration 
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:05pm 10/24/14 :: link
Connecticut is colored red on today's 2014 governor election map thanks to Rasmussen's latest survey which shows Republican challenger Tom Foley enjoying a 7 point lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy.  The margin is unchanged from Rasmussen's previous poll released back in August, but it differs considerably from Public Policy Polling's latest published just over a week ago.  That poll gave Malloy a 6 point lead.

Situated almost perfectly between those two polls is a survey from Quinnipiac pegging the race at a dead-even 46-46 tie.  It's probably safe to conclude from these three polls that the 2014 Connecticut governor election will be a nail-biter.  If you'll remember, these two gentlemen fought one of the nation's closet gubernatorial races four years ago with Malloy earning a scant 6400-vote victory out of over 1 million votes cast.

I'm looking forward to another poll testing this race to see which whether the projected outcome moves closer to Rasmussen or Public Policy Polling.  For now, though, the GOP can add a projected statehouse takeover.  However, even with this change, they still stand to lose a net two governorships next month.  The gubernatorial tally stands today at 27 Republicans, 22 Democrats and 1 Independent.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:24pm 10/20/14 :: link
One of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country comes out of the Badger State.  Incumbent Republican Scott Walker is trying to fend off a very strong challenge from educator Mary Burke.  Scott has a history of surviving tough election challenges, having earned an historic recall election victory here in 2012.  But this year could see a change of fortune for Democrats bent on seeing the union antagonist overthrown.

Election Projection currently projects Burke to win the 2014 Wisconsin governor election by a scant 0.5%.  With just two polls included in the calculations, her slim margin clearly indicates a toss-up situation.  However, after seeing Walker best her in four out of five Wisconsin governor polls released in September, Burke's lead likely reveals a bit of momentum in her direction since the beginning of October.

I hope more polling is done on this race over the next 2 1/2 weeks.  We really need more data to get a better sense of how this race is unfolding down the stretch.  And I imagine that's what we'll get since the Walker-Burke matchup should be one of the closest and most closely-watched races in the 2014 governor elections.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:58pm 10/17/14 :: link
Whew!  That was a lot of work!  Today's update is posted - finally - and the House numbers have shifted a bit more in the GOP's favor.  Republicans are now projected to extend their majority by a net 6 seats.  That's one more than they were projected to gain yesterday.  The new member of the red team is seeking a spot in Congress from Maine's 2nd district.  Republican Bruce Poliquin edges just ahead of Democrat Emily Cain for this open seat.

Coincidentally, the man who currently owns that seat makes the update write-up today for reclaiming the lead in the Maine governor election.  Democrat Mike Michaud is trying to deny incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage a second term and is looking like a good bet to do so if the latest numbers hold up.  A Bangor Daily News/Ipsos poll released this week puts him 6 points ahead of LePage, 42-36, with Independent Eliot Cutler earning a hefty 16%.

Countering the Democratic pickup in Maine, Republican Sam Brownback earns a Weak GOP Hold rating in his bid to retain the top job in Kansas.  Over the summer, it looked like Brownback was one of the more vulnerable sitting governors this election.  Recent polling data shows the race tightening, however.

Even if we cast a suspicious eye on a partisan poll and a Fox News poll giving him leads of three and six points, respectively, the latest Public Policy offering, which puts Democrat Paul Davis up by just one, indicates a much closer race than their September poll showing Davis up 6.  We'll see if Brownback can keep his momentum going as Election Day nears, but it's clear he's in much better shape than he was a month ago.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:42pm 10/14/14 :: link
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