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Updated:
Fri. Sep 19, 2014
Senate
Republicans 51
Democrats 46
Independents 3
GOP +6, IND +1
House
Republicans 238
Democrats 197
GOP +4
Governors
Republicans 29
Democrats 21
no change
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A bug in my projection calculating program caused the Florida CD-26 election to be mislabeled as a Republican hold.  In fact, recent polling data, both head-to-head and generic, did push the Republican candidate, Carlos Curbelo, ahead in the race.  However, since the incumbent here is a Democrat, Joe Garcia, the projection should denote a Republican gain.  I've corrected the error, and the new tally in the House increases the projected Republican caucus by one to 238 seats against the Democrats' 197 seats, a net gain of 4 seats for the GOP.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:15pm 09/17/14 :: link
The numbers are posted for today, and ratings changes abound.  In the House, that is fueled in part by a substantial poll harvest.  It's a good time to mention Election Projection's 2014 House election polls page.  It's a great resource for finding hard-to-find polling data on House races, so be sure to make use of it as we move closer to Election Day.

Back to the latest polls.  I want to mention a couple of noteworthy points that stand out to me as I peruse the numbers.  First, Democrats have greatly improved their chances to keep their 100% majority in Massachusetts' House delegation.  Incumbent John Tierney's defeat to Seth Moulton in the Democratic primary was the best thing for Democratic prospects in the Massachusetts CD-6 election.

With Tierney on the ballot, Republican nominee Richard Tisei looked like a better-than-even-money bet to earn the takeover for the GOP.  That changed with Moulton's victory last week, and polls released recently highlight just how much this race has turned.  Granted, the two polls to which I refer were conducted by Democratic leaning polling firms, but margins of 8 and 18 points are hard to completely dismiss because of their partisan source.  The race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold.

Another interesting quirk in the numbers comes out of New Hampshire.  The Granite State features two competitive House races this year.  Republicans are very hopeful that they can unseat Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in the New Hampshire CD-1 election.  And though less enticing, the New Hampshire CD-2 election also looks to be competitive.

How justified GOP hopes are depends on what polls we observe.  In August, Frank Guinta, the Republican in the CD-1 race, held a 4-point lead over Shea-Porter in a University of New Hampshire poll.  The same poll put Republican Mari Garcia just 3 points behind the CD-2 incumbent, Democrat Ann Kuster.  That a completely different picture from the one we see in this month's New England College surveys.  Their polls give the Democrats leads of 4 points and 13 points in CD-1 and CD-2, respectively.

Does that mean the tide has turned toward the blue team in the Granite State?  Perhaps, but there's an interesting detail in the mix here, one that Nate Silver has pointed out - polls of registered voters vs. likely voters tend to overstate Democratic performance.  Coincidentally, the New England College polls target registered voters, whereas the UNH surveys polled likely voters.  So the unanswered question (at the present time) is whether Democrats are indeed moving ahead in New Hampshire or whether actual Republican voters are under sampled in the RV surveys.  Stay tuned - I'm sure there will be more polling data to weigh before Election Day.

The last item of interest to me in today's House numbers is the fact that despite all the House polls and all the rating changes, the only party-switcher, Colorado CD-6, moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain based solely on a very red generic congressional preference poll put out by CBS News/New York Times that shifted the EP Poll Average of this important predictive metric to Republicans +3.5.

The 7-point GOP advantage in the poll marks the sixth of the last seven generic polls to show Republicans pulling ahead.  That's a stark difference from what we saw in June and July when Democrats lead 14 of 18 such polls and were tied with Republicans in three others.  These signs may indicate that the answer to the question I raised last week, Is there a wave coming after all?, is yes.  I won't be sure unless and until the GOP is projected to win more than three seats in the 2014 House elections as EP currently predicts.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:24pm 09/17/14 :: link
This article was published Tuesday, September 9 on PJMedia.com.

How primary results have affected the parties' general election prospects.

Republicans enjoyed a hurricane force wind at their backs going into the 2010 elections.  On Election Day, GOP candidates running for seats in the House realized the full potential of the wave they were riding by earning a massive and historic 63-seat net gain.  However, Republican candidates vying for their place in the Senate did not.  Sure, they did well, picking up six seats in the upper chamber, but they missed out on several additional opportunities.

Amy Walter, National Editor for CookPolitical.com, points out a major reason why. She writes:

In 2010, in what was a "wave year" just two of the seven toss-up races went to Republicans, though public polling predicted that four of those seven (57 percent) would flip to the GOP.  Terrible GOP candidates like Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Ken Buck were the real culprits in the GOP underperformance that year.
Party nominees matter - even in wave elections.  So, with the primary season drawing to a close, let's take a look at the candidates from each party who made it past the qualifying round and evaluate how those choices impact their party's prospects for success in Senate and gubernatorial elections this November.

Thirty-six Senate seats are up for grabs this year.  Twenty-three of them are non-competitive races which the incumbent party is very likely to retain.  The remaining thirteen seats are either competitive or non-competitive projected takeovers (South Dakota, for example).  Coincidentally, thirty-six governorships, of which 14 are currently competitive, are also on tap.  Looking at the primary lineups for these competitive races, we see that they fall into three different categories.

Incumbent Running
Seven senators, 6 Democrats and 1 Republican, are seeking reelection in competitive races this year.  The Democrats are Mark Begich (AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Mary Landrieu (LA), Jeanne Shaheen (NH) and Kay Hagan (NC).  They are joined by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY).  Eleven incumbent governors are also facing competitive reelection bids in 2014.  They consist of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.

Non-competitive Primaries
Thirteen Senate primary contests from eight different states and twelve gubernatorial primaries in eleven states held primaries that were, well, no contest.  I won't list them all here, but it is worthy to note that in some cases - Arkansas GOP Senate, Georgia DEM Senate, for example - having a non-competitive primary meant the nominee was the top choice of the party from the outset.  In other cases - Michigan GOP Senate, Montana DEM Senate - the absence of primary competition resulted from the best choice deciding against running.

The first two categories are included for completeness.  However, these races are not very useful when evaluating the role of primary voters in their parties' prospects.  Their impact is gleaned best from races which featured a primary election in doubt.

Competitive Primaries
Let's take a look at several of these primaries race by race and grade primary voters on whether they have improved or impaired their parties' chances by the choice they made.

Alaska Senate (GOP)
Republicans here are salivating at the opportunity to unseat Mark Begich in this conservative state.  Three high profile candidates vied for that honor.  GOP voters made the right choice by selecting Former Alaska Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan.  While Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell would have given Begich a strong challenge, Republicans avoided a concession by not picking lightning rod Joe Miller.  GRADE: A

Georgia Senate (GOP)
Businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston got the most votes in the primary election.  However, since neither was able to eclipse the requisite 50% +1 to avoid a runoff, Georgia Republicans had to return to the ballot box a month later to finalize their pick.  They get high marks for picking Perdue, but the prolonged runoff period subjected the nominee to more intra-party conflict and gave Democrat Michelle Nunn a longer grace period.  GRADE: B

Iowa Senate (GOP)
The biggest accomplishment by GOP primary voters here was to avoid having the state convention decide their nominee.  Joni Ernst, who has an enviable bio well-suited to run for public office, captured more than enough votes to earn the nomination outright.  A convention-brokered selection could have resulted in an untenable general election option.  GRADE: A

North Carolina Senate (GOP)
Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan is one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the Senate this cycle, and Tarheel Republicans had at least three viable options who were faring well, pre-primary, against her in the polls.  Thom Tillis, the GOP establishment candidate, prevailed, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff in the process.  While Tea Party fans aren't as keen on the career politician as they would have been with either physician Greg Brannon or Pastor Mark Harris, Tillis is an electable choice in the general election - and avoiding that runoff is a big positive.  GRADE: A-

Colorado Governor (GOP)
Primary voters on the Republican side get high marks for not nominating unelectable Tom Tancredo.  They settled on Bob Beauprez, 2006 gubernatorial nominee, by just 3 points over Tancredo in a four-way race.  And while Beauprez was not impressive in his failed bid for governor 8 years ago, he has seemed a stronger candidate so far this year.  GRADE: A-

Hawaii Governor (DEM)
Democratic voters in the Aloha state made history this year by handing Neil Abercrombie the largest primary defeat of a sitting governor in U.S. history.  Judging from pre-primary polling, they made a great move in doing so.  As a result, they have improved their chances of keeping this deeply blue state in the fold.  State Senator David Ige still trails Republican nominee Duke Aiona, Jr. in the polls (ed. note: not anymore), but he has the potential of staging the comeback Abercrombie could not.  GRADE: A+

Illinois Governor (GOP)
Bruce Rauner has the funds to finance his campaign for governor.  That's important in a state that contains the expensive Chicago media market.  Also, as a political newcomer, he doesn't have the track record the other Republican contenders have.  That's likely a good thing as well in this race against a wily, battle-tested incumbent like Democrat Pat Quinn.  GRADE: A

Wisconsin Governor (DEM)
Democrats would like to get rid of Scott Walker perhaps more than any other governor.  He survived their recall election in 2012 and has taken steps to undermine their power base in the state.  Democratic primary voters selected educator Mary Burke to take him on in 2014.  Judging from how she is performing in the polls so far, it looks like they have made a good choice.  As of this writing, Election Projection shows Burke defeating Walker by a fraction.  GRADE: A

That's a lot of good grades!  Unlike the Republican primary disasters noted by Walter, this year's primary results show that voters from both parties have done a good job picking the right nominees to make the most of their general election opportunities.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:07pm 09/15/14 :: link
Since the end of August, there has been a marked shift in congressional generic polling.  All six polls released so far in September have given Republicans leads ranging from 2 to 7 points.  The composite generic poll average stands at GOP +2.6 - and that includes a USA Today/Pew Research poll from late August showing the generic Democrat up 5.

The impact of the dramatic turn in this tell-tale metric has moved the projected balance of power in the House toward the GOP.  Over the last two updates, 11 competitive House races have seen their projections become more Republican.  And, among them, four have flipped from blue to red.

Recent House Rating Changes
Election Old Rating New Rating
Arizona CD-1 Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
Arizona CD-9 Mod DEM Hold Weak DEM Hold
California CD-36 Mod DEM Hold Weak DEM Hold
Colorado CD-6 Weak DEM Gain Weak GOP Hold
Illinois CD-17 Mod DEM Hold Weak DEM Hold
Maine CD-2 Mod DEM Hold Weak DEM Hold
New Hamp CD-1 Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
New York CD-18 Mod DEM Hold Weak DEM Hold
New York CD-19 Weak GOP Hold Mod GOP Hold
New York CD-21 Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
New York CD-23 Weak GOP Hold Mod GOP Hold
With four more seats in the red column, the 2014 House elections outcome is projected to be 237 Republicans and 198 Democrats, a net gain of three seats for the GOP.  This is the first time Republicans have been projected to extend their majority in the House of Representatives.  Moreover, since that generic survey favoring Democrats by 5 is the next one to drop out of the calculations, Republicans will more likely than not see their net gain increase.

Note:  In previous elections, I leaned on four pundits for my House calculations.  So far in 2014, I have included only three.  That's because CQPolitics, one of the sources I relied on before, is using Stuart Rothenberg's predictions this year.  To compensate for the merger of Rothenberg and CQPolitics, I have added a new source, Real Clear Politics, to get back to the number previously used.  Today's projections include RCP's House race ratings.

posted by Scott Elliott at 3:45pm 09/13/14 :: link
Monday, the trio of CBS News/NYT/YouGov let loose with a barrage of Senate polls that resulted in eight rating changes, including two party-switchers.  Well, if YouGov brought in the polling week with a roar in the Senate elections, they are taking it out with roar in the governor elections.

You'll find nearly three dozen new polls on today's governor polls report.  With this new barrage, 10 governor races sport new projections.  And like the Senate shakeup on Monday, two party-switchers - one to the benefit of each party - change the color-scheme of EP's 2014 governor election map but leave the projected balance of power unchanged.

Today's Governor Rating Changes
Election Old Rating New Rating
Arizona Governor Weak DEM Gain Weak GOP Hold
Connecticut Governor Mod GOP Gain Weak GOP Gain
Hawaii Governor Weak GOP Gain Weak DEM Hold
Idaho Governor Strong GOP Hold Solid GOP Hold
Kansas Governor Mod DEM Gain Weak DEM Gain
Maryland Governor Solid DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
Nebraska Governor Mod GOP Hold Strong GOP Hold
Oregon Governor Strong DEM Hold Mod DEM Hold
S Carolina Governor Strong GOP Hold Solid GOP Hold
Vermont Governor Solid DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
Election Projection's governors update today shows 28 Republicans and 22 Democrats, a net gubernatorial gain of one for the blue team.
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:54pm 09/12/14 :: link
Fox News released their latest congressional generic poll.  I caught wind of it after posting today's update.  The poll gives Republicans a whopping 7-point advantage.  That's significant, and even more so in light of the recent trend toward Republicans in other generic polls.  Moreover, since it will be replacing last month's Fox News generic survey which showed a 7-point lead for Democrats, the affect on the 2014 House projections will be dramatic.

Be sure to come back tomorrow afternoon to see what that affect will be.  I've looked at the numbers, and this new poll will shift the House races which currently favor Democrats by a point or so.  It's looking more and more like a bit of a wave may be starting to build out there.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:45pm 09/11/14 :: link
Yesterday, voters went to the polls in the last four primaries of the 2014 Election season (if you don't count Louisiana's open primary on Election Day).  The final four states were Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire, where Scott Brown won the GOP nomination to set up his much anticipated battle against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen.  The other noteworthy result from yesterday was John Tierney's loss in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts' 6th District.  Tierney's defeat marked the first time this election that a Democratic incumbent failed to survive a primary challenge.

I'm always glad when no more primaries remain on the calendar because that means I can finalize all the races I'm tracking here at Election Projection.  This election, I'm tracking 116 races in all - 36 Senate, 44 House and 36 Governors.  The projection update I'll post later this evening will include all finalized matchups - no more undetermined candidates.

So today we begin the 8-week sprint to the finish line.  The year is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans and signs are starting to indicate it may be "wave-worthy" yet.  Regardless, I hope you'll make Election Projection a routine source for your election news and numbers.  I'll be updating the projections with new polls every day, Monday-Saturday, from now until my final projections on Election Eve.  Strap in and hold on - it's going to be an exciting ride!

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:01pm 09/10/14 :: link
A second poll dump from the collaboration between CBS, The New York Times and YouGov has shaken up the numbers here at Election Projection, producing a total of eight Senate rating changes.  However, despite all the movement, the projected balance of power in the 2014 Senate elections remains unchanged at 51-46-3.  The Iowa Senate election is back in the Democratic fold with Bruce Braley forging a small lead over Republican Joni Ernst, but Democrat incumbent Mark Begich is now projected to lose the Alaska Senate election to Republican Dan Sullivan.

Here is the list of rating changes in today's projection update:

Today's Rating Changes
Election Old Rating New Rating
Alaska Senate Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
Hawaii Senate Strong DEM Hold Solid DEM Hold
Iowa Senate Weak GOP Gain Weak DEM Hold
Kentucky Senate Weak GOP Hold Mod GOP Hold
Minnesota Senate Strong DEM Hold Mod DEM Hold
New Jersey Senate Mod DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
Oklahoma Governor Mod GOP Hold Solid GOP Hold
Oregon Senate Solid DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
South Carolina Senate Solid GOP Hold Strong GOP Hold
In addition to the eight Senate rating changes - which split evenly between the parties - the list also includes a change in the Oklahoma governor election.  GOP Governor Mary Fallin moves comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Dorman.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:14pm 09/08/14 :: link
Last week saw two major developments in the elections this year.  In Alaska, Democrats abandoned their frontal assault on Republican Governor Sean Parnell and merged their nominee, Byron Mallott, into the ticket of Independent Bill Walker.  By engineering a deal where Mallott becomes Walker's lt. governor candidate, Democrats hope to pool the Democratic and other non-GOP vote to overwhelm Parnell's support and unseat the incumbent.

In a three-way race, Parnell held a large lead in the polls but struggled to get to 40% with the combined Mallott/Walker vote edging into the low 40's.  The new two-man race between Parnell and Walker has been polled but once - a prior Public Policy Polling survey.  Parnell's new found challenge is highlighted by the poll which gives him a scant 1-point lead over Walker, 41-40.  This race has moved from Solid GOP Hold to a much more competitive Weak GOP Hold.

The other significant shift occurred in the Kansas Senate election where Democratic Chad Taylor announced he was withdrawing from the race.  After Kansas Secretary of State Kris Koback (R) ruled Taylor would not be removed from the ballot, the Democrat reiterated that he would not serve if elected.  The net of his decision is that Republicans find themselves with yet another very challenging race in this deep red state.

Now, in addition to trying to save embattled Governor Sam Brownback, Sunflower State Republicans must also fret over a two-way race between their incumbent, Senator Pat Roberts, and upstart Independent Greg Orman.  As in the race for Alaska governor, I could find but one poll testing the new matchup.  It isn't good news for the red team.  I'm doubtful the poll's findings will be confirmed by subsequent polling, but for now, Orman takes a commanding 10-point lead in the 2014 Kansas Senate election.

Until we have further polling data, this race moves from a Mod GOP Hold to a Strong IND Gain, our first Independent pick-up.  The projected tally in the Senate now stands at 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 3 Independents.  As you can see, Republicans are still projected to take the majority, but Kansas' sudden competitiveness complicates their efforts to make that quest a reality.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:09am 09/06/14 :: link
This week's news has been full of stories concerning Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and her dubious Louisiana residency.  This new scandal comes on the heels of last month's revelation of her dubious use of taxpayer money.  Even before these damaging reports hit the airways, Landrieu was numbered among the most vulnerable incumbent senators in 2014.

Rasmussen released a poll today that provides an indication that the scandals are having a negative effect on her already teetering re-election chances.  The poll finds her 3 points behind Republican Bill Cassidy, 44% to 41%.  That's a six-point swing in Cassidy's favor from Rasmussen's July survey which had Landrieu up by a 46-43 count.

As a result of this new poll, the calculations here at Election Projection move Cassidy into the lead in the 2014 Louisiana Senate election, shifting the projection from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  The Republicans are now projected to earn seven takeovers in the Senate and take a 52-46-2 majority.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:53pm 09/04/14 :: link
The Battleground Poll, a collaboration between the Republican Tarrance Group and the Democratic Lake Research pollsters, released its latest findings this week.  The topline generic congressional ballot poll gives Republicans a 4-point edge over Democrats, 46-42.  That is positive news for the red team to be sure, but it doesn't necessarily herald a coming GOP wave.

For Republicans looking to reclaim the Senate, however, a deeper look into the poll seems to offer more substantial encouragement.  Ed Goeas, representing The Tarrance Group, points out how the GOP advantages go beyond the 4-point topline lead.

In states with a competitive US Senate race, Republicans hold a sixteen point advantage (52%-36%) on this generic ballot.  Not only are Republicans getting stronger support on the generic ballot from "hard" Republicans (93%) than Democrats are getting from "hard" Democrats (89%), "soft" Republicans are voting a net sixteen-points stronger for the generic Republican on the ballot than "soft" Democrats are voting for the generic Democrat.  By any measure, Republicans are fired up and ready to deliver victories to their candidates in November, with of the strong backing of Independent (+15-points) and middle class voters (+11-points).
The 16-point lead in states where competitive Senate races are being held is a bit misleading considering the preponderance of red states in that group, but I see two positives for the GOP, nonetheless.  First, the data confirm that Republicans should have little problem keeping control of the House.  Second, the GOP is poised to take the lion's share of these Senate races, and, in doing so, stand a great chance of winning the Senate, perhaps by a good margin.

With the 2016 Senate election slate looking like a very difficult climate for Republicans in the upper chamber, it probably will take a cushion of 3 or 4 seats to avoid having that majority turn into a one-hit wonder.  Election Projection currently projects 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents.  That's a net Republican gain of six seats in the 2014 Senate elections.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:05pm 09/03/14 :: link
With Labor Day, summer break's symbolic end, behind us, the 2014 election season is underway in earnest.  The next 9 weeks will witness ever-increasing interest in the upcoming elections as part-time political observers start turning their attention to who is running for office - and who's projected to win.

So, if you're looking for a good time to take a baseline measurement, today's Senate House and gubernatorial numbers here at Election Projection provide a useful starting point.  Will this cycle fulfill its current promise of a status-quo election, or will Republicans start to see a wave building as interest builds and likely voter models become better defined?  As they say, only time will tell, but I hope you'll make Election Projection a daily stop as we keep our finger on the pulse of the American electorate, 2014 edition.

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:39pm 09/02/14 :: link
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