Election Day
November 8, 2016
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The Florida Supreme Court has decreed that the GOP-authored congressional map for the Sunshine State is invalid. Charlie Cook's website reports that...
Last Friday, the Florida Supreme Court threw the state's 2016 congressional elections into chaos when it invalidated the boundaries of eight of the state's 27 districts and ordered the GOP-led legislature to go back to the drawing board.
To the delight, no doubt, of Democrats, the court also took the opportunity in its 172-page ruling to chastise Republicans.
The court slammed the GOP for flouting the state's 2010 "Fair Districts" anti-gerrymandering amendments, and threatened to draw its own map if the GOP didn't come up with its own in 100 days.
However, David Wasserman notes in the artical how the ruling could backfire on Democrats hoping for a more favorable map.
Republicans could theoretically comply with the court's very specific instructions and still draw an even better map than they have now.
Time will tell how all this shakes out, but Wasserman points to two sitting congressmen who appear to be headed for dangerous electoral times - Democrat Gwen Graham in CD-2 and Republican David Jolly in CD-13. Both races have been moved to "Toss-up" in Cook's latest House race ratings.
Filed under:  2016 House Races 
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:17am 07/15/15 :: link
With almost all potential candidates officially announced now, here is the current list of Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls. Scroll down to the end for my quick take on who are true contenders and who are not.
Democratic Presidential Candidates
Hillary Clinton
Former U.S. Secretary of State
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator from Vermont
Martin O'Malley
Former Governor of Maryland
Lincoln Chafee
Former Governor of Rhode Island
Jim Webb
Former U.S. Senator from Virginia
Republican Presidential Candidates
Ted Cruz
U.S. Senator from Texas
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator from Kentucky
Marco Rubio
U.S. Senator from Florida
Ben Carson
Retired Surgeon
Carly Fiorina
Former Corporate Executive
Mike Huckabee
Former Governor of Arkansas
Rick Santorum
Former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
George Pataki
Former Governor of New York
Lindsey Graham
U.S. Senator from South Carolina
Jeb Bush
Former Governor of Florida
Chris Christie
Governor of New Jersey
Bobby Jindal
Governor of Louisiana
Rick Perry
Former Governor of Texas
Donald Trump
Real Estate Mogul
Scott Walker
Governor of Wisconsin
Democrats will select Hillary Clinton as their nominee in 2016. The splash being made right now by Bernie Sanders will dissipate before the start of primary season. The only true threat to Clinton's nomination, Vice President Joe Biden, may or may not run, depending on whom you ask.

On the GOP side of the ledger, Trump's early splash will also peter out. Chris Christie won't make a splash at all. Ted Cruz, despite a strong start, won't win either. As I see it, the Republican nomination is a three-man contest. I'd confer the title of contender to Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio. All the rest are also-rans.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:07pm 07/13/15 :: link
While not as large as the Republican field, the list of Democrats vying for their party's nomination in the 2016 Presidential Election has increased today with Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee's announcement that he will join three others already running. In his announcement speech, Chafee took a jab at Hillary Clinton, the current overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nod.
Chafee [..] raised questions about contributions to the foundation started by former president Bill Clinton. At one point, he said the integrity of the Secretary of State's office - the job Hillary Clinton once held - has been called into question.
Chafee takes a diametrically opposing view from Republican Lindsey Graham, who announced a bit for the GOP nomination earlier this week, on the issue of foreign relations. In contrast to Graham's hawkish rhetoric, Chafee says he wants to "find a way to wage peace." Chafee and Graham are not dissimilar in one regard, however. Neither stands much of a chance of being on the presidential ballot next November.
Current Announced Democratic Presidential Candidates
Hillary Clinton
Former U.S. Secretary of State
Bernie Sanders
U.S. Senator from Vermont
Martin O'Malley
Former Governor of Maryland
Lincoln Chafee
Former Governor of Rhode Island
Another possible candidate
  • Jim Webb - Former U.S. Senator from Virginia
Regardless of whomever else joins the fray, Clinton should maintain a healthy lead among Democratic hopefuls for at least the rest of the year. In fact, I'm not in the camp that says the former first lady is in any danger of not getting the nomination for the blue team.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:48pm 06/03/15 :: link
When Republican Lindsey Graham, South Carolina senator, said he was officially entering the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, the overcrowded GOP field swelled to nine. Graham pointed in his announcement to the strong approach he would take toward our enemies.
"I'm running for president of the United States," Graham said. "I want to be president to defeat the enemies that are trying to kill us - not just penalize them or criticize them or contain them, but defeat them."
That may not be convincing to many in the party who believe he is weak on illegal immigration. "Gramesty" is a popular derision offered by his conservative detractors. As a result, the potential for him to emerge victorious in the nomination race is quite small.
Current Announced Republican Presidential Candidates
Ted Cruz
U.S. Senator from Texas
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator from Kentucky
Marco Rubio
U.S. Senator from Florida
Ben Carson
Retired Surgeon
Carly Fiorina
Former Corporate Executive
Mike Huckabee
Former Governor of Arkansas
Rick Santorum
Former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
George Pataki
Former Governor of New York
Lindsey Graham
U.S. Senator from South Carolina
Other probable candidates
  • Jeb Bush - Former Governor of Florida
  • Chris Christie - Governor of New Jersey
  • Bobby Jindal - Governor of Louisiana
  • John Kasich - Governor of Ohio
  • Rick Perry - Former Governor of Texas
  • Scott Walker - Governor of Wisconsin
If all those on the probable list actually run, we'll be treated to a Republican nomination battle between no less than 15 combatants. Here's hoping the weeding out begins early in the process.
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:03pm 06/02/15 :: link
Three sitting Republican senators, all facing competitive re-election campaigns in 2016, are among those mentioned as potential running mates for the GOP presidential nominee. RollCall.com reports that Senators Kelly Ayotte (NH), Rob Portman (OH) and Marco Rubio (FL) are in the vice-presidential mix.
GOP operatives have often mentioned Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire; Rob Portman of Ohio; and Marco Rubio of Florida, as potential running mates for the eventual GOP nominee in 2016. Here's the problem: The trio is up for re-election in competitive states in 2016. If one of them is selected for the No. 2 spot, Republicans would risk losing the Senate seat - and possibly, control of that chamber.
Kansas Senator Jerry Moran, former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman, doesn't believe that will happen.
Sen. Ayotte and Sen. Portman and Sen. Rubio are great senators who are highly regarded, respected and very supported by their voters at home," [..] Moran [..] told CQ Roll Call Thursday. "It would be unlikely for the presidential candidate to choose someone, a Republican senator, if that senator was going to be replaced by a Democrat."
Even though Republicans hold 55 seats in the upper chamber - a 5 seat majority - the difficult political landscape they face next year makes every seat critical if they are to retain their control in 2017. Picking a senator from a vulnerable state does seems like a foolish choice - but that doesn't mean it's a choice that won't be made. In electoral politics, it wouldn't be the first time a Republican chose poorly.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:58pm 02/09/15 :: link
Today's news that 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney would forego a third run for the White House caused me to recalibrate Election Projection's first preliminary presidential projections of the 2016 election cycle. Since the Republican and Democratic candidates in these early projections are based on who is leading their respective primary fields, my initial matchup was Romney vs. Hillary Clinton.

Romney's announcement rendered those numbers impossible. The new GOP poll leader is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and the first numerical look at the 2016 Presidential Election features a Bush-Clinton contest (deja-vu?).

As I mentioned last weekend, Clinton's poll numbers are overwhelming in both the Democratic nomination race and against all GOP competitors in general election tests. Clinton's lead in my first projections, therefore, is substantial. She is projected to win 15 more electoral votes than President Obama in 2012 for a commanding 347-191 EV advantage over Bush. She is projected to add North Carolina to the list of states carried by Obama 4 years ago.

You might be wondering how I came up with these projections. Well, let me explain. Obama's margin of victory in the popular vote last time around was 3.8%. So far this year, Hillary Clinton is polling 9.0% ahead of Jeb Bush, an increase of 5.2%. To arrive at these new season's preliminary projections, I simply shifted the popular vote in each state by 5.2% in Clinton's favor. The ratings you see on the summary page reflect that shift.

As the polls change, of course, the numbers will too. But here at Election Projection, if another candidate takes the lead in their party's primary polls, the general election contenders will also change.

Filed under:  2016 Presidential Election 
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:59pm 01/30/15 :: link
I wanted to post a quick update on my progress as I continue crunching the numbers and developing pages for the 2016 Presidential Election. The polls at this obscenely early juncture in the next year's race for the White House favor Hillary Clinton from top to bottom. Much to my own chagrin and that of my conservative friends, that fact will be more than evident in the upcoming revelation of Election Projection's first preliminary projections.

If you followed EP for long, you'll know that the intent of my projections is to identify how the election would turn out - if it were held today. And the truth is that the polls indicate a major Clinton landslide if the election were to be held in late January, 2015. We all know, however, that the election is still 21 months away.

I'm still a few days away from completing the 2016 Pesidential Election summary page, but I will be working diligently to publish it as soon as possible.

Filed under:  2016 Presidential Election 
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:13pm 01/24/15 :: link
Program note: I'm working behind the scenes to build all the pages EP will need for the 2016 election season. This will be an ongoing process over the next several weeks. During this period you may encounter broken links or incomplete or stale information as I bring all the pages online. I will publish the state-by-state summary page for the presidential election first, hopefully tomorrow evening. Other summary pages will come next followed by individual state pages.
Filed under:  Website Administration 
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:04pm 01/21/15 :: link
In 2008, Hillary Clinton, former senator and first-lady, began the primary season as the odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination. With George W. Bush's approval in the 30's and Republican fatigue at high levels, Clinton's primary victory promised to provide an easier than normal path to the White House.

Then came Senator Barack Obama, and before long, Hillary faded into the background amid a sweeping rush of Obamamania. Now, approaching 8 years later, Clinton again dominates the Democratic primary discussion. Polls have her way out in front of all comers on the Democratic side. CNN/Opinion Research's latest put her lead at 57 points of other potential candidates, none of which could even break out of single digits.

Despite doubts among some observers - including The Blogging Caesar - signs point to Hillary getting into the race. Some are looking for a March announcement noting that she has paid speeches on the schedule up to March 19. If she does run, I can't imagine anyone coming close to wresting the nomination away from her. Moreover, she clearly has, in my opinion, the best chance for victory in the general election of any of the Democrats mentioned as possible candidates.

But, for the sake of completeness, let's consider who would be in the running should Hillary surprise and decline to run. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice-president Joe Biden are two who seem to be most attractive to Democratic voters at this early stage. The rest appear to be the type of candidates who run for a while, run out of money and support, and drop out. These include Socialist Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and former Virginia Senator Jim Webb.

With the possible exception of Cuomo's, the campaign of none of the latter list should gain much traction. And if Hillary runs, look for the entire Democratic nominating process to be but a formality on the way to her selection.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:43pm 01/12/15 :: link
The 2016 Republican National Convention will be held next year in Cleveland, Ohio, a staunch Democratic city in a pivotal battleground state. Republican leadership is looking at a late-June, early-July timeframe, thinking an earlier conclusion to primary season would afford their nominee more opportunity to focus on the Democratic opponent.

But who will be their nominee? The field is expectedly unsettled with a plethora of potential candidates mulling runs. Big names, such as Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, are all in the early discussion. Others, like Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and John Bolton seem long shots at the moment but are nevertheless on some people's radar.

Larry Sabato has the early handicapping story over at the Crystal Ball. He recently elevated Mr. Bush - yes, the son of POTUS 41 and the brother of POTUS 43 - to very wobbly frontrunner status. Sabato remarks that a third Bush presidency in just over a generation would be unprecedented in American history.

It would also be highly unlikely to occur in my view. The challenge of getting Americans to vote for a third Bush would be too daunting. The GOP will be much better served to pick someone - anyone - other than a member of the Kennebunkport clan. But who that might be is anyone guess.

Next up, I'll take a first cursory look at the 2016 Democratic nomination possibilities. Then, we'll look more in depth at the individuals assembling to grab their parties' endorsement for the next President of the United States.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:27pm 01/08/15 :: link
I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year. Election Projection opens 2015 with promises of earlier and more frequent posts about the 2016 elections. Tracking will begin much earlier than in previous years - what off-season? - so stay tuned for a steady stream of politics and election news for the 2016 election season.
Filed under:  Website Administration 
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00pm 01/04/15 :: link
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