A rating change is in order then, right?  No, I don't think so.  See, in addition to crunching the numbers, I try to take into consideration intangible aspects of the race that might impact the outcome.  New Jersey is a classic example.  This state tends to poll quite a bit more purple than it actually is.  It is blue through and through.  So, early polls tend to raise GOP hopes, but voters here eventually return home to roost.

I think this is exactly what is happening here.  By early November, Menendez may still be a point or two behind in the polls, but that will change once the election booth curtain closes.  Now, if Kean gets to a sustainable double-digit lead, I might consider making a change in this race.  Or, if he maintains a strong 6-8 point lead into October, I also might consider a change.  For now though, I'm leaving it as is because I believe the folks in New Jersey are just up to their old tricks again.