Now that DeLay is not running, it will be extremely difficult for a Democrat to win this seat.  Even though some might express the sentiment that if you've seen one GOPer you've seen them all and argue that the citizens of CD-22 will be loathe to elect another one, I don't buy it.  DeLay's resignation, The Blogging Caesar believes, clears the way for the GOP to keep this seat.  And so, I am changing the rating of this race from weak DEM gain to weak GOP hold.

Depending on how the special election plays out, this race may be moved off my competitive race chart entirely.  I'll be looking intently at polling numbers over the summer to see whether this race will move to strong GOP hold territory.  A couple of things hold me back for now, though, and both have to do with the Democratic nominee in this race.  First, Nick Lampson is a former U.S. representative whose district use to include part of the current CD-22.  Second, he has $2.5 million in the bank.  In short, he will be a formidible challenger.  How formidible he will be against a non-controversial Republican in a red district remains to be seen.