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| Tuesday, April 4, 2006 |
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| Zogby shmogby |
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| This is why I won't be
using Zogby's interactive polls this year. I went back and did some research from the 2004 election cycle. While they predicted many of the
state contests relatively well, the problem they exhibited however was an occasional ridiculous outlier. Here are some of Zogby's results
from 2004...
Kerry by 13 (mid-Sept), 11 (early-Oct) and 10 (late-Oct) in New Mexico - Bush won by 1
Bush by 1 (early-Oct) and 2.5 (late-Oct) in Tennessee!! - Bush won by over 14
Kerry by 6 (early-Oct) in Iowa - Bush won by 1
Kerry by 10 (early-Oct) in Michigan - Kerry won by 3.4
Bush by 2 (mid-Oct) in Arizona - Bush won by 10.5
Kerry by 11 (late-Oct) in Minnesota - Kerry won by 3.5
Kerry by 13 (late-Oct) in Oregon - Kerry won by 4
Bush by 3 (late-Oct) in West Virginia - Bush won by 13
Kerry by 4 (late-Oct) in Colorado - Bush won by 5
Personally, that's not a track record on which The Blogging Caesar wants to pin the reputation of Election Projection. By the way, notice a
pattern? That's right, everyone of these results falsely inflated Kerry's position in the race. I found only one instance where
Zogby missed royally in Bush's favor. Ironically, it was in New Mexico. Somehow, by the last weekend before the election, Zogby's poll
indicated New Mexico had somehow swung from a 10-point Kerry lead to a 9-point Bush lead - in just 10 days!!
Now with Scott Rasmussen (who incidentally redeemed himself in 2004 from his debacle in 2000) showing Kyl up by 22, does anyone want
to put any money on Pedersen to get within 5 of Kyl in Arizona like Zogby's poll predicts? I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd take that one.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:40pm 04/04/06 ::
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