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| Thursday, April 3, 2008 |
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| Fifty-state tour: New Mexico |
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| This Southwestern state has been very closely contested the last two presidential cycles. In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by a mere
366 votes - Florida's official margin was 537, though Floridians cast 10 times more votes overall. Four years ago was not much different. Different result,
similar margin. This year, John McCain will be fighting to attain the same level of support that Bush had back then (yes, it was much better than it is today).
With a large and growing Latino population and smaller pool of "independents," New Mexico will be a tall order for the presumptive nominee. The state will be
very close again, but this time The Blogging Caesar says, "Weak DEM."
Complicating the matter for the GOP is the retirement of long-time Senator Pete Domenici. His seat will be contested by, ironically, all three of New
Mexico's congresspeople. I am not aware of a time when that has ever happened. Among the three, Democrat Tom Udall appears to be in the best shape.
Polls have shown him way out in front of both GOP candidates. It looks like a good year to be blue in New Mexico. For now, I'll go with the numbers and
project a Weak DEM Gain.
And the hits don't stop there. Heather Wilson's entry into the Senate race has left the Democratic-leaning seat in District 1 up for grabs. The
GOP has been able to enlist a strong candidate in Sheriff Darron White, so hope remains that this seat will stay in the red column. However, as Larry Sabato
says, "this will likely be one of the fall's most competitive races with the strength of White's candidacy balanced against a pro-Democratic demographic and national
mood." Until I see the mood rising out there, I'm rating this one a Weak DEM Gain as well.
Well, that completes the Democratic sweep here. Please check out the New Mexico state page for more information.
Next stop: New York
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 04/03/08 ::
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