November should once again prove that point.  Already, polls indicate John McCain faring decently against the two Democratic contenders.  A lot can and will happen over the next seven months.  I think McCain has a chance to turn Oregon to the red, but I'm not overly optimistic.  For now, The Blogging Caesar is calling this one a Weak DEM win that should be somewhere between 2000's razor-close finish and 2004's four-point Democratic victory.

The inflated impression of Oregon's liberal lean also contributes to an air of vulnerability surrounding GOP Senator Gordon Smith.  He is up for re-election this year and, as in 2002, the Democratic faithful see his seat as a pick-up opportunity.  Smith certainly isn't a shoo-in for a third term, but neither is he in serious danger in my view.  Last time, Democrats set their sights on him only to see him cruise to a comfortable 56-40 victory.  I expect the margin will be tighter this time, but still in the Mod GOP Hold range.

A quick look at Oregon's five congressional races shows only an open Democratic seat in District 5 can even earn a possibly competitive rating.

Be sure to check out the Oregon state page where you can find a lot more good information.