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| Thursday, April 24, 2008 |
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| Fifty-state tour: Texas |
| President George W. Bush used to be Governor George W. Bush of Texas. One might imagine having a former governor on the ticket would
produce a convincing victory in his home state. Indeed that was the case both in 2000 and 2004. However, Texas is not just red because of GWB, and
presumptive GOP nominee John McCain shouldn't have to sweat Texas' 34 electoral votes. He might not win by as much as Bush, but his victory should be
suspenseless.
GOP Senator John Cornyn, up for re-election for the first time in 2008, will benefit as well from Texas' conservate streak. Like McCain (at least in Texas),
Cornyn will enjoy a wide margin of victory in November. The same can be said for a surprising number of the Lone Star State's 32 congresspeople. In a
state this big, it seems odd that only two House seats are remotely competitive and only one of them will be truly competitive.
Democrat Nick Lampson was the beneficiary of Tom Delay's resignation debacle in 2006, winning this extremely red district by 10 over write-in GOP candidate
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. This year, a GOP challenger's name (Pete Olsen) is on the ballot. That alone will make Lampson's re-election bid difficult in this
district. Unless Pete Olsen runs a very bad campaign, The Blogging Caesar believes he should win. Give district 22 back to the GOP in November,
Weak GOP Gain. No other House race in Texas is worth mentioning with the possible exception of Ciro Rodriguez's seat in
district 23, and I don't expect to see it moving into the hotly-contested pool anytime soon.
There is much more for your perusal on the Texas state page.
Correction: Previously, I noted Dick Armey as the former congressman from district 22, not Tom Delay.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10pm 04/24/08 ::
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