The question then becomes when will this transistion reach critical mass and flip Virginia to blue?  We may see that point reached this year, although I suspect we are still one or two election cycles away.  You can count on Virginia to be a battleground state this year, but The Blogging Caesar thinks John McCain will take it by a Weak GOP margin.

One thing that may prove me wrong on that one is what could be called a "reverse coattails effect."  Down-ticket contests favor the Democrats, starting with the race for retiring GOP Senator John Warner's seat.  With uber-popular Democrat and former Governor Mark Warner trouncing his fellow ex-Governor Jim Gilmore in the polls, the Democratic nominee for president could realize at least a slight tailwind from Warner's likely strong performance.  Warner's presumed victory is among the most certain Democratic takeovers of the cycle.  Unless Gilmore finds a miracle on the way to the voting booth, this one will be a Strong DEM Gain.

The good news doesn't stop there for Democrats in Virginia.  Looking at the House races, the blue team has a good chance to cut into the GOP's 8-3 congressional advantage.  District 11, situated in the increasingly liberal Northern Virginia area, is presently held by Republican Tom Davis.  He is retiring at the end of this term, leaving an open GOP seat vulnerable to a rising opposing demographic.  This race will be very tight, but The Blogging Caesar thinks the political landscape lends itself to a Weak DEM Gain here.  Beyond 11, Congresswoman Thelma Drake in district 2 is also somewhat vulnerable, but she should retain her seat.

This should be an exciting year in Virginia, so you'll want to check out the Virginia state page frequently.