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  Politics and Elections - April, 2009
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Arlen Specter, Democrat, no surprise
Down big to his primary challenger and facing a party that views him as a member in name only, Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania has switched partisan allegiance.  His move to the Democrats gives the party of Obama an almost-certain sixty seats in the Senate.  If anyone is counting - and everyone is - that means the Democrats have attained a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.  In one sense, reaching that coveted mark is big news.  Afterall, it has been 32 years since the upper chamber on Capitol Hill has seen such an overwhelming partisan advantage.  In one sense, a senator with 30 years experience switching parties is big news.  Afterall, seeing a veteran politician overturn a lifetime of service to one political party is a rare sight indeed.

On the other hand, I would contend neither aspect of Specter's announcement today is all that newsworthy.  Here's why.  First, Specter's bolt only formalizes the filibuster-proof status of Senate Democrats.  With 59 seats already in their fold and at least three RINOs - Specter and Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine - at their disposal, Democrats had little real fear of the GOP mustering a filibuster.  Second, Specter has never been a conservative stalwart.  Long the object of wrath among party faithful, Specter's "independent" streak fits just as well, if not better, in his new party as it did in his former one.  And with his imminent demise becoming clearer as next year's primary battle peaks over the horizon, a shift to the Democrats makes perfect sense.  He was never a true Republican, so, in his case, there is not much of a Republican track record to overturn.

I don't fault Arlen Specter for switching parties and his move probably won't affect the partisan makeup of the Senate after the mid-term elections.  (Toomey would be the GOP nominee in either case and would most likely lose the general election in either case.)  The bright side of this outcome for me is that Specter is no longer a GOP senator - I don't even have to wait another year and a half for it to happen.  Frankly, I'm glad to see him go.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:55pm 04/28/09 ::


Monday, April 27, 2009
Obama's job approval 100 days in
The first 100 days of Barack Obama's presidency draw to close.  I thought this would be a good time to look at how we Americans think he's doing so far.  Looking at the data compiled at PollingReport.com, you'd have to say folks are pretty satisfied at this point.  Here are the last several polls measuring Obama's job approval.
Polling FirmApprove      Disapprove     Dates
CNN/ORC63%33%4/23-26/09
CBS/New York Times68%23%4/22-26/09
Marist55%31%4/21-23/09
ABC/Washington Post      69%26%4/21-24/09
Fox/OD62%29%4/22-23/09
Pew Research63%26%4/14-21/09
AP-GfK64%30%4/16-20/09
The average approval of these polls is right at 63%.  Not bad.  President Obama's approval right now is similar to former President George W. Bush's approval as the midterm elections of 2002 neared.  The historic gains of the GOP that year have been well-documented.  If Obama can maintain this level of satisfaction until November, 2010, he stands to oversee a third straight celebratory election night for his party.  Of course, that will be much easier said than done - especially given just how difficult the job of President of these United States can be.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:25pm 04/27/09 ::
Monday, April 13, 2009
Special election in NY-20 razor close
Democrat Scott Murphy has opened up a two-digit lead (as measured in votes, not percentage!) after seeing Republican Jim Tedisco take an even more narrow advantage last week in the special election in New York's CD-20.  Last Monday, Tedisco held the lead by 17 votes with several thousand absentee votes yet to be tabulated.  Today, the margin favors Murphy by 25 votes.  There are still a couple thousand votes to count, so either man can still win.  The New York State Board of Elections' home page posts a new total sometime after the close of counting each day.  I'll keep a link to the daily count on Election Projection's home page.

If Tedisco eaks ahead in the end to claim a victory, it would give the GOP 179 seats in the House, 77 seats less than the Democrats.  It would also provide a glimmer of positive light to a party lost in electoral darkness over the last 2 1/2 years.  At a minimum, Tedisco's win would represent a takeover in a formerly-Republican district recently trending toward the Democrats.  Republicans, of course, hope Tedisco will prevail and that his victory will signal a larger change - that the blue wave of 2006 and 2008 is at long last subsiding.  On the other hand, should Murphy hold on and win, Democrats will breathe a sigh of relief that this strong Republican challenge yielded yet another special election Democratic triumph.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05pm 04/13/09 ::
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Iowa action alert - HJR 6
Last week, the Iowa Supreme Court decided to force legalized same-sex marriage on the people of Iowa.  Now, those in the Iowa legislature who want to preserve the true meaning of marriage are attempting to do something about the Court's judicial malpractice.  HJR 6 would provide the opportunity for Iowa voters to add an amendment to Iowa's constitution officially sanctioning only marriage between one man and one woman.

Trouble is, there is plenty of opposition to allowing the democratic process to run its course on this issue.  In a state where a recent poll showed less than 30% of Iowa voters support same-sex marriage, the bill is stuck in committee and may not make it out.  Our task in this critical hour, as Americans who support the traditional definition of marriage, is two-fold.  First, I encourage all of you to do as I have done and send an email to Iowa legislators who represent pivotal votes.  The National Organization for Marriage has published a very convenient form email that took me less than two minutes to send.  Please visit the site and send that email. 

Second, if you have any friends or family in Iowa, please forward this link to them.  Any email received by these legislators will matter, but those received from constituents will carry more weight.  There is a war raging in this country for its very heart and soul.  Those standing for traditional values have won few battles in this war over the last decade.  If you've ever yearned to make a difference but didn't know how, this is your answer; this is your chance.  Click on the link, send the email, contact your friends.  If enough of us do, the battle for Iowa's marriage amendment can be won.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:40pm 04/09/09 ::
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