Senate:  Let me summarize Patty Murray's chances to gain a fourth term in 2010 like this.  Against Dino Rossi, she might lose in any political climate and would be even money in this climate.  Against anyone else, it would take a massive red tide to deny her another six years in Washington (DC, that is).  Now that it appears George Pataki will not engage Kirsten Gillibrand in NY and Tommy Thompson will decline a run against Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Rossi's decision is perhaps the biggest unknown remaining in this election cycle.  If Rossi decides not to run - insiders peg the odds he will at 50-50 - there are four who are already in the race.  Of them, only State Senator Don Benton has run for office in the past.  The others, Clint Didier (whom this Redskins fan remembers fondly for his success as an NFL tight end), businessman Paul Akers, and public speaker and author Chris Widener, are unknown quantities in a political sense.  Though these contenders probably don't have the political chops to threaten Murray much, I have to highlight one SurveyUSA poll taken here.  Released in April, the poll gave Dino Rossi a whopping 10-point lead over Murray and showed the rest of the Republican hopefuls within the margin of error.  Whether this is an outlier poll or another indication of just how large the coming red wave may be is not known.  I'll withhold judgment until more polling data from the state is published.  As for this race's projection, it is always difficult to pinpoint an outlook when a major game-changer like Rossi is sitting on the sidelines contemplating a run.  Given the 50-50 change he won't run, I'll rate this race a tentative Strong DEM Hold.  But should Rossi declare, the race would immediately transform into a nail-biter.

House District 3:  Washington may be a liberal state overall, but this district boasts a good number of conservatives who make incumbent Brian Baird's decision to retire extra problematic for Democrats.  Interestingly this district rates a zero in Charlie Cook's PVI, meaning it closely mirrors nationwide partisan performance.  That also means it flows with the partisan tides, especially when no incumbent is running.  Thus, in this Republican environment, Baird's retirement gives the GOP an excellent pick-up opportunity.  Furthermore, because this district is split between the liberal-leaning Olympia area which is in the Seattle market and the more conservative Vancouver area down near Portland, Oregon, the Democrats must find a candidate that can appeal to both without alienating either.  To illustrate the challenge, Republicans were successful in picking up this seat in 1994 by portraying the incumbent Democrat as an Olympia liberal.  Currently, there are multiple candidates on both sides vying for the nominations.  The GOP is high on State Representative Jaime Herrera, a Latina who represents the heart of the district.  On the Democratic side, Craig Pridemore, a state senator, and Danny Heck, at TV station owner, are in so far.  I could find no polls testing the respective primary contests, but I believe Baird's exit has to lean this race toward the GOP.  Chalk up another Weak GOP Gain.

House District 8:  We finally come to a rare Republican seat on Election Projection's hotly-contested House race list.  It will be, in fact, the last such seat.  At present count, Election Projection is tracking 87 House races.  Of them, just 13 are GOP-held.  And like several other GOP seats on the list, this one is becoming more secure for the Republicans.  Initially, three-term incumbent Dave Reichert's seat looked like it might be very vulnerable.  Early on, he toyed with the idea of running against Murray for the Senate.  That would have left this open seat in a Democratic-leaning district very susceptible to a takeover.  However, he decided to remain in the race to keep his current job.  Also early on, wealthy Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene announced she would run for the Democratic nomination here and quickly amassed a sizable campaign stash.  She added an Emily's list endorsement recently as well.  All that may not, however, be enough to seriously endanger Reichert, whose more liberal voting record actually fits well in this district.  In a race that is moving away from the challenger, the rating here is a Mod GOP Hold.

More on the Evergreen State, check out the Washington state page.

Next stop:  West Virginia



Filed under:  Washington  WA Senate  WA House 

House District 2:  In this Republican-leaning district, one number spells trouble for incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye - 62.  That's the percentage of the vote this district gave to new Republican Governor Bob McDonnell last November.  Unlike his last election attempt when Barack Obama's coattails and Republican incumbent Thelma Drake's weakness helped him to a narrow 4-point takeover, Nye will face a headwind and a well-funded, legitimate challenger this time.  However, there is one thing that may keep Nye in this race - or at least avoid an embarrassing blowout loss.  Two GOP candidates have plenty of money and appear ready to spend a lot of it fighting each other for the Republican nomination.  The front runner, and favorite of GOP insiders, is car salesman Scott Rigell.  Running against him is another wealthy Republican, Ben Loyola, a naval reservist who recently loaned his campaign $500,000.  Rigell should win, though Loyola is likely to remind primary voters of his $1000 contribution to Obama in 2008.  (Full disclosure: Rigell has been a reliable financial supporter for McDonnell and says he only donated to Obama for fear of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.)  My feeling is that Rigell will withstand that line of attack from Loyola.  After all, I'm sure plenty of the primary voters in this district had the same fear early in 2008.  After securing the nomination, Rigell will have the edge in the general election against Nye.  Give another Weak GOP Gain to the red team.

House District 5:  Another very vulnerable Democrat represents this district that stretches from Charlottesville down to Danville and Martinsville in southwestern Virginia.  This is Republican country, and incumbent Tom Perriello faces a daunting challenge to keep it in Democratic hands.  Republican primary front runner Robert Hurt is a state senator who already represents about a quarter of this district's voters in the state legislature.  His entry into the race late last year moved it to the toss-up category in the minds of some political observers - Stuart Rothenberg has since moved it to "Tilt R."  The projection here is Weak GOP Gain.  This is the kind of race one would number among the low-hanging GOP pick-up opportunities in a red wave election.  It should switch to red on Election Night, but keep an eye on it.  If Periello can survive, the night will not be the electoral landslide many expect, and the GOP will not be winning the majority in either Capitol Hill chamber.

House District 9:  There aren't many Democrats in congress who represent a district where Obama's notoriety is as acrid as it is in District 9.  Were it not for incumbent Rick Boucher's 15-term history in the district, he would not win another term in this environment.  As it is, he will have to rely on his long record of bringing federal dollars home to these coal mountains of southwestern Virginia to keep the 9th in Democratic hands.  How difficult a task that is will be determined by who runs against him.  Right now it appears he will face State Senator Morgan Griffith who resides just outside the district.  Republicans are hoping State Senator William Wampler will jump in, but that appears less likely as time goes by.  Boucher defeated Wampler's father in 1982 to first win this seat.  The junior Wampler would be the most difficult opponent for Bouchard to beat.  That's not to say Griffith can't be Boucher, however, and the incumbent must once again gain a strong crossover vote in this district which voted for Barack Obama at a dismal 40% clip.  Election Projection sees this race as a Mod DEM Hold at the moment, though it could certainly tighten before votes are cast.

House District 11:  Incumbent Gerry Connolly is member of the 2008 Democratic freshman class.  After 7-term Republican Tom Davis retired, Connolly won a convincing open-seat takeover over Keith Fimian.  While Fimian is back this year, filling his political outsider role, the strongest potential opponent to Connolly is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.  Problem is, Herrity has to get past Fimian without sustaining too much damage.  In a March poll, Herrity led Fimian 42%-21%, so he looks poised to win what should be an expensive primary contest.  In the general, the prospects of the GOP seem fundamentally much improved over two years ago.  But whether Herrity can overcome Connolly's double-digit margin in 2008 and the benefits of incumbency he's accumulated since remains to be seen.  Currently, I give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  Just as a Tom Periello victory in District 5 would signal a less-than-spectacular GOP House seat gain probably in the low 20's, a Connolly loss here likely would foreshadow a GOP gain of 50 seats or more.

Don't miss the Virginia state page for much more Old Dominion goodies.

Next stop:  Washington



Filed under:  Virginia  VA House 

Senate:  That happened for the first time back in 1974.  Now, six terms and four decades later, Leahy is as safe as ever.  He is an influential figure on Capitol Hill, chairing the prominent Judiciary Committee, and claims the fourth longest tenure among Senate Democrats.  During his time in the Senate, he has participated in the confirmation hearings of every sitting Supreme Court justice.  With his far-reaching power and his consistent liberal voting record (he voted with a majority of the Democratic caucus 95.4% of the time in the 110th Congress), Leahy has achieved untouchable status in this small, liberal state.  This race is a lock, a Solid DEM Hold for the incumbent.  But I suppose for the sake of completeness, I should note that he faces an insignificant primary battle against physician Daniel Freilich and a no-more-daunting challenge against Republican Len Britton in the general election.

Governor:  I've highlighted before on Election Projection how gubernatorial elections are sometimes not nearly the partisan affairs Senate and House elections are.  In recent memory, there have been Democratic governors in such ruby red states as Wyoming, Oklahoma and Kansas, and Republican governors in blue stalwarts such as California, Massachusetts, New York, and, yes, Vermont.  Here in the Green Mountain State, the current governor is Republican Jim Douglas.  He has successfully sought re-election three time since first winning the governorship in 2002.  After four two-year terms, Douglas is calling it quits.  His second-in-command Brian Dubie gives the GOP a reasonable shot at retaining the Governor's Mansion come January.  Depending on the polling firm and the opponent tested, Dubie has a small but comfortable lead or is in a toss-up situation.  I did not see any polling on the Democratic field, but Deborah Markowitz, Vermont's secretary of state, appears to be the strongest Democrat against Dubie in general election tests.  The consensus right now, despite Rasmussen's outlook, is that the Democrats hold a slight advantage.  I'm inclined to agree; therefore, this race is projected as a Weak DEM Gain.

The Vermont state page is where you'll find much more information on the Green Mountain State.

Next stop:  Virginia



Filed under:  Vermont  VT Senate  VT Governor 

Senate:  Bob Bennett is a Republican incumbent who faces a very serious threat to his re-election hopes, but it's not in spite of GOP dominance in the state.  It is, rather, in part because of it.  You see, Bennett doesn't have a storehouse of good will to bank on with the state's conservative voters.  Instead, his vote for TARP and his co-sponsorship of a bi-partisan health care bill have driven them straight to Tea Party candidates vying for the GOP nomination Bennett has cruised to in the past.  Odds are Bennett will NOT be the nominee to defend his own seat in 2010.  In the Utah GOP's unique system of granting party nominations, the top two convention votegetters do battle in a primary - unless one candidate gets the vote of at least 60% of convention delegates.  Recent polls show delegates giving former counsel to Gov. Jon Huntsman, Mike Lee, a clear advantage but not near the 60% required to avoid a runoff.  Chances are Lee and Bennett will head to a primary, though a Mason-Dixon poll out last week relegates Bennett to third place behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater.  Regardless of whether Bennett survives the convention to contest the primary, it is unlikely he will have the support to win it.  On the Democratic side, ABC chairman Sam Granato looks to be the nominee.  Though some Democratic strategists hope a non-Bennett GOP nominee will be vulnerable, I don't see it.  Bennett or not this is a Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  After Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, he tapped Utah Governor Bill Huntsman, Jr. to become U.S. ambassador to China.  Huntsman's replacement, Lt.Governor Gary Herbert, stepped up to take the top job.  This year, a special election will be held to see if Herbert gets to keep that job.  Early on, Herbert's chances were unknown, and time was needed to see how Utahans would take to their interim governor.  He seems to have made good impressions all around as his approval rating in a recent Rasmussen poll hit the 70% mark.  With approval ratings that high, Herbert's potential opponents, both within the GOP and without, largely decided to pass on the opportunity to deny him his first election to the governorship.  Three minor Republican candidates, none of which is a threat, filed to run against him in the primary, and Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon is the only Democrat in the race.  The Rasmussen poll conducted two weeks ago gives Corroon little chance of victory.  It shows the incumbent with a 2-1 advantage.  Since assuming office, Governor Herbert has filled the role well, turning what could have been an obstacle-filled path to re-election into a Solid GOP Hold for himself.

Check out the Utah state page for the rest of the story.

Next stop:  Vermont



Filed under:  Utah  UT Senate  UT Governor 

Governor:  …and, since George W. beat Ann "Ma" Richards, the Lone Star State's Democratic matriarch and sitting governor at the time, for the statehouse in 1994, so has the top executive office in the state.  Rick Perry was Bush's lieutenant governor, becoming interim top dog upon his boss' 2000 presidential triumph.  He has since run successfully for election in his own right in 2002 and for re-election four years later.  His path to re-election in 2010 got difficult, however, even before the primaries due to a intra-party battle he waged with Senator Hutchison and Tea Party favorite, Debra Medina.  Perry eventually won an easier victory than many had expected, averting a nasty runoff election in the process by grabbing 51% of the vote.  On the Democratic side, former Houston Mayor Bill White breezed to the nomination with over three-quarters of the vote.  The Perry-White match up will be a close race all the way.  Unfortunately for Perry, his longevity in Austin may be wearing thin his welcome, and, as a result, he stands to benefit less from the Republican mood in November.  Mayor White certainly has a shot at knocking off the incumbent, but current polls give Perry a slight lead.  We'll go with that here and project a Mod GOP Hold (which borders on a weak GOP hold) for the time being.

House District 17:  Congressman Chet Edwards represents the most Republican district in the nation held by a Democrat.  With a Cook PVI of R+20, the fact that Edwards remains on Capitol Hill is a testament to the relationship he has developed in this district.  Over the years, he has withstood the red tsunami of 1994 and GOP-led redistricting in 2004 that produced the highly-Republican district in which he now runs for an eleventh term.  However, as Cook points out, "Edwards overcame a rough climate in 1994 and a rough district in 2004, but he has never had to overcome both."  And this year is shaping up to be one of his toughest election challenges.  Signs are he understands what he faces.  Edwards' votes against Cap and Trade and Obamacare show he is trying hard not to disrupt the good vibes he has cultivated with his conservative constituents.  Whether that's enough to save this seat for the Democrats will be a story told only by the vote count on Election Night, and this race will be on lots of radars between now and then.  The Republican opposing him is Bill Flores who won a runoff primary vote to advance to the general election.  Flores is a political novice and self-described "limited government conservative."  His profile should sit well in this conservative district and make this race competitive.  However, Edwards has demonstrated great staying power before, so this race will be a Mod DEM Hold until Flores shows he can connect with the district's voters as well as Edwards has.

House District 23:  Republicans got the candidate they wanted to face off against Democratic incumbent Ciro Rodriguez when Hispanic-American Quico Canseco finally emerged from a Republican primary with the nomination.  This district boasts a large Hispanic population as well as a highly-engaged non-Hispanic one.  Where previous GOP nominees here did well with the latter group, Rodriguez's advantage among the former has been more than enough to ensure victory.  That may change this year.  I believe, given the makeup of this district and the national GOP tide, that Canseco brings the right kind of cross-section appeal to the race to gather the votes he'll need to ride Rodriguez out of office in November.  Pundits don't quite see it that way…yet.  (Stuart Rothenberg, for example, doesn't even have this race on his watch list)  So, until they do, this race will remain in the Mod DEM Hold category.

The lowdown on the Lone Star can be had on the Texas state page.

Next stop:  Utah



Filed under:  Texas  TX House  TX Governor 

Governor:  Democrat Phil Bredesen won re-election in 2006 with 69% of the vote.  Too bad for Democrats, the well-liked incumbent is barred from a third term.  Instead of a relatively easy hold, which I imagine a Bredesen run would have represented, Democrats are faced with a daunting task of trying to elect a non-incumbent to the statehouse of a strengthening GOP state in the midst of a strengthening GOP wind.  That's probably just too much to expect, and the projection here at EP bears that out.  Apparently, Democrats also agree with that assessment - only Mike McWherter, who is the son of former Governor Ned Ray McWherter but has not held elected office, decided to jump in.  On the Republican side, legitimate candidates abound.  Congressman Zach Wamp polled best in a GOP primary survey taken last summer, but Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam or State Senator Ron Ramsey could win the nomination and would be favored to win the general election as well.  The winner of the primary contest in the end will most likely be the Tennessee's next governor.  However, pinpointing the margin is a bit more difficult.  It could range from a close but comfortable victory to a blowout.  The initial projection falls somewhere in between, a Strong GOP Gain.

House District 6:  Of the two very vulnerable seats on EP's tracking list from Tennessee, this one is by far the most troublesome for Democrats.  With a PVI of R+13, this seat would be a challenge for Democrats even if incumbent Bart Gordon were seeking re-election.  Since he's not, this race is all but gone.  In fact, in the latest Most Likely Takeover list for the House, this district ranks number one.  At CQ Politics, it occupies an extremely rare position - in the "Safe" category for the opposition party!  There are several candidates in the running for both nominations, but I couldn't find any polling that would help determine who the front runners are right now.  No matter, whoever wins the GOP nomination will easily and handily beat whomever wins the Democratic nomination.  The rating starts off as a Mod GOP Gain, a rating that has nowhere to go but in the GOP's direction.

House District 8:  Though District 8 is not nearly as vulnerable as District 6, it nevertheless represents a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP with Democratic incumbent John Tanner's decision to forego another run.  This is another district with a strong GOP lean (PVI R+6), and in an open seat battle, the Republican nominee will have an advantage, especially with the decidedly Republican-favored mood out there.  While three of the pundits on my pundit panel rate this race a toss-up, Larry Sabato moved it into the "Lean GOP" category soon after Tanner announced his intentions.  My hunch is that he'll be proven prescient, and I fully expect the others to eventually follow suit.  Unlike District 8, the front runners are already clear on both sides.  State Senator Roy Herron looks to be the Democratic nominee.  For the Republicans, Christian gospel singer Steve Fincher is out in front.  He raised $300,000 within weeks of announcing his candidacy largely from his presumptive fans throughout the rural reaches of this districts and brings a squeaky-clean image that will be hard for his detractors to attack.  Though Herron is a strong candidate who will put up a decent fight here, the newcomer Fincher should score a Weak GOP Gain unless he turns out to be way off key as a political candidate.

You can find the rest of story on the Tennessee state page.

Next stop:  Texas



Filed under:  Tennessee  TN House  TN Governor 

Senate:  John Thune is a well-spoken, classy senator who had the honor of unseating Democrat Tom Daschle while Daschle was Senator majority leader.  That was in 2004, just two years after he narrowly lost his first Senate attempt against Democrat Tim Johnson.  Thune's loss in 2002 was the only competitive Senate race the GOP didn't win that year, but it didn't dim Thune's rising star.  This year, Thune is up for re-election for the first time.  As the target of presidential rumors, Thune will have no problem holding his seat in South Dakota.  Without a Democrat to challenge him, his Solid GOP Hold re-election bid is just a formality.  The most interesting facet of this election, I believe, is what Thune will do with his enormous $5 million war chest in a race without an opponent.  Might it come in handy for a White House run?

Governor:  Republican Mike Rounds first won the governorship here in 2002 after he beat two stronger and better funded Republicans to gain the nomination.  As the two of them plastered each other with mud and vitriol, Rounds scooped up all the voters turned off by the fighting above and slipped away with one of the biggest upsets in South Dakota history.  Now, 8 years and a re-election later, Rounds will finish up his second term in a few months.  He is term-limited, so he won't be able to seek a third term.  Even with him out of the picture, though, this race should be a easy hold for the GOP as long as primary front runner Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard takes care of business and wins the nomination.  For their part, Democrats landed a solid candidate when state Senator Scott Heidepriem joined the fray.  He is the minority leader in the state Senate and ensures this race will not be a formality.  Polls give Daugaard a large and growing lead in this race, so I'm rating it a Strong GOP Hold to start.

House At Large District:  Stephanie Herseth, as she was known at the time, won a special election in June of 2004 to replace former Governor Bill Janklow, who had resigned in the wake of a vehicular manslaughter conviction in January that year.  Herseth had lost a close race against Janklow in 2002, so she was a natural pick to try for the seat he vacated.  After winning a full term later in 2004, she has since used a more conservative voting record to cruise to two solid re-election victories in 2006 and 2008.  This year, GOP strategists think Herseth-Sandlin, as she has been known since her 2007 marriage broke the hearts of many single male fans of politics, may be vulnerable to a rising Republican tide.  Though she would be very hard to beat, pundits have begun to characterize this race as more competitive than previously thought.  The rating here is Mod DEM Hold.  If the GOP ends up winning this one, I believe that will mean the Democratic majority is history.  Instead of striving for 40 seats, the GOP will be pushing 50 or more if SD-AL turns red.

Click here for the South Dakota state page.

Next stop:  Tennessee



Filed under:  South Dakota  SD Senate  SD House  SD Governor 

Senate:  Jim DeMint won this seat in 2004.  For over forty years prior, Fritz Hollings held it in Democratic hands.  Interestingly, though Hollings served seven 6-years terms, he claimed the title of senior senator from South Carolina for just his last two years in office, thanks to Strom Thurmond's historic 9 terms which ended in 2002.  This year, the pronounced Republican lean of the state and favorable political winds provide a safe environment for DeMint to seek re-election.  A favorite among conservatives - the National Journal has ranked him the number one conservative senator multiple times since he took office in 2003 - he'll face no major obstacles earning a second term in a Solid GOP Hold in this state full of conservative voters.

Governor:  Republican incumbent Mark Sanford's highly publicized moral sins may have made headlines for months, but they won't keep him from running for another term in Columbia.  Term-limits will.  Sanford must leave office at this end of this his second term.  The likely Republican nominee for this open governorship race is hard to determine.  Rasmussen released a survey of GOP primary hopefuls back in March which showed no candidate in a crowded field polling better than 21% and no less than four candidates polling in double-digits.  The same kind of free-for-all exists on the Democratic side where the top three in the Rasmussen poll are stuck between 12% and 16%.  Regardless who emerges from the respective primary battles to face off in the general election, the GOP nominee will start off with a significant advantage.  This isn't a done deal for the GOP that Senator DeMint enjoys in the Senate race, but it should be a moderately easy high-single-digit Mod GOP Hold.

House District 5:  Democrat John Spratt has persevered through difficult cycles (1994 and 2006) and easy cycles (most of the rest) during his 14 terms in the House, but 2010 may turn out to be his most difficult re-election challenge.  Spratt holds the distinction of representing the most Republican district (R+7) of any Democrat who voted for both the cap and trade and health care bills.  Talk about cultivating a difficult path to a 15th term!  Hoping to take advantage of the tension Spratt's votes have created with his constituents, Republican Mick Mulvaney will attempt to unseat the veteran congressman.  Mulvaney may not be the best candidate due to his Charlotte-based roots in this largely rural district.  Yet, those rural voters are likely among the most disillusioned with the incumbent's recent voting record.  Look for a competitive race, but give the Spratt the edge right now, a Mod DEM Hold.

Check out the South Carolina state page for more information on these and other races.

Next stop:  South Dakota



Filed under:  South Carolina  SC Senate  SC House  SC Governor 

Governor:  Trying to keep an open governorship in Rhode Island in Republican hands is a monstrous task, one where failure is practically a foregone conclusion.  The Democratic candidate should cruise to an easy takeover, right?  Not exactly.  Remember "then-RINO" Lincoln Chafee?  Well, he's not a RINO anymore - he's an independent, he's leading in the polls in this race, and Election Projection gives him the best chance to win.  This race's projection starts out as a Weak IND Gain, the only one you'll find in all the 2010 projections on this website.  By the way, if you've been wondering why the total projected Democratic and Republican governors adds up to just 49, this is why.  After November, it should be 49 + Lincoln Chafee, the Independent.

The Rhode Island state page has more interesting stuff for your perusal.

Next stop:  South Carolina



Filed under:  Rhode Island  RI Governor 

House District 8:  Some districts, such as Pennsylvania's 4th, have races that seem to be moving toward the incumbent party candidate.  Others have the opposite feel.  This district is an example of the latter.  Initially thought of as safe, it has moved now to a Mod DEM Hold.  One main reason for the shift is Mike Fitzpatrick's decision to try again for the seat he won in 2004.  Though Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy ousted him just two years later, Fitzpatrick brings to this race name recognition and the current letter-of-the-day after his name.  He also brings the support of local Republican machinery which should enable him to effectively play catch-up in the fundraising arena.  It's true that Murphy has a substantial war chest ($1.3 million), but Fitzpatrick's $470,000 ain't too shabby, especially considering his late start relative to the incumbent.  I predict this race will tighten before November, and, if the night meets moderate expectations for the GOP, don't be surprised to count it among the list of Republican takeovers.

House District 10:  This district has a legitimate rightward lean.  Its Cook PVI is R+8.  Incumbent Democrat Chris Carney has the requisite "conservative" label attached to the D after his name, otherwise he probably would not be the incumbent right now.  His victory in 2006 was largely due to the sex scandal that was Don Sherwood's undoing, but he relied heavily on conservative credentials for his 2008 triumph.  This year, his bid for a third term is a microcosm of the political forces at work nationwide.  Like so many other Democratic incumbents, he faces both the consequences of a yes vote for Obamacare and a Republican candidate backed by Tea Party activists.  Chiropractor David Madeira is just the type of novice candidate that could excite this conservative-leaning area no doubt reeling from Carney's Obamacare vote.  And this is just the type of race that can be impacted by the Tea Party movement.  Right now this race projects as a Weak DEM Hold, but it exudes the urge to flip to red by Election Day.  However, if that is to be the case, Madeira or Tom Marino, the other possible nominee, will have to overcome a substantial financial deficit.  Carney has $665,000 in the bank.  Neither Madeira nor Marino has eclipsed six figures yet in that department.

House District 11:  Democrat incumbent Paul Kanjorski has faced Republican Lou Barletta before - twice, in fact.  In 2002, Kanjorski won the first match up with 56% of the vote.  Six years later, the two butted heads again.  This time, even while President Obama was garnering 57% of the vote in the district, Kanjorski needed all the help he could get to make it to 52%.  The climate has changed for round three, and, for Barletta, that could make all the difference.  Two factors to keep in mind as we move toward the primaries and then onto the general election.  First, how much fight will Corey O'Brien, Kanjorski's primary opponent exert on the incumbent, and, second, how effective will Barletta be in closing an enormous fundraising gap which Kanjorski now leads 6 to 1?  Time will tell, of course, but for now this race is classified as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 12:  The late John Murtha's unexpected passing has left this seat open and very much in play.  At a Cook PVI of R+1, this district is about as balanced as you can get.  However, the coincidence of the special election to fill Murtha's seat with the statewide primary on May 18 may help Democrats retain it.  That's because in Pennsylvania's closed primary format, the Democrats' 2-1 edge in voter registration here provides them with a structural turnout advantage.  Yet, polls and pundit ratings would give the GOP a slight edge right now with Republican nominee Tim Burns leading the Democrats' pick Mark Critz by 3 in Public Policy Polling's mid-April survey.  In light of that, the projection for the special election is a Weak GOP Gain.  Given the potential for Democratic turnout to be higher proportionally for this special election than they can expect to see in November, if they do lose the seat in 3 weeks, it will be a very difficult task to take it back in 6 months.  On the other hand, if Critz is victorious, this district is sure to land right back on the highly-vulnerable list once the special election dust settles.

House District 15:  At first glance, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan appears to sit in an unusually strong position as a congressional challenger.  He is the party's first choice to run against the Republican incumbent in a district which boasts a slight Democratic lean, and his cash on hand outpaces the incumbent by $6000 - something almost unheard of this early in a congressional race.  Yet, the projection for this race is not all that close.  Callahan's main problem is an issue of timing.  Had he contested for this seat two years ago, he would no doubt be poised to win it.  This year, however, the climate just doesn't suit Democratic candidates who have a penchant for raising taxes.  (As Bethlehem mayor, he advocated a 17% increase in the local sales tax.)  Illustrating voter sentiment, a January poll conducted for incumbent Charlie Dent's campaign shows Dent with an overwhelming 53% to 27% lead over Callahan.  Yes, this is a partisan poll, but Callahan's climb is undeniably substantial even with the positives he has going for him.  The opening projection is a Mod GOP Hold for Dent.  While this race could tighten, if could also widen if Callahan cannot counter the tax and spend mantle Dent is sure to try to pin on him.

House District 17:  After re-districting gave this district a much stronger Republican lean, Democratic incumbent Tim Holden should have had a difficult, if not impossible, challenge holding onto the House seat here.  Instead, Holden has used a conservative voting record and strong personal ties to the more Republican areas of the district to win the last several elections without any trouble - he claimed 64% of the vote here while President Obama could manage just 48%.  Republicans attribute his easy re-elections to a lack of formidable challengers, a shortcoming they think they can remedy this cycle.  State Senator Dave Argull, they believe, can be the threat Holden has not yet faced, and his strength is enhanced by the prevailing political winds.  It remains to be seen if voters in the district will forgive him for voting in his current job for an unpopular legislative pay raise, a move for which he has since apologized.  Pundits appear to view Argull's candidacy in a positive light, rating this race as competitive even considering Holden's previous overwhelming victories.  Based on those sentiments, I rate this race a Mod DEM Hold.

The Pennsylvania state page is one resource you'll want to take full advantage of.

Next stop:  Rhode Island



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

Senate:  As a former Republican, Arlen Specter cannot be happy with his current situation.  Seeing easier access to power and a less doubtful path to re-election, Specter granted the Democrats a then-filibuster-proof majority in the Senate by switching parties last April.  That move, in his mind I'm sure, should have made another term a strong likelihood for him.  (At that time, he was trailing badly to his primary opponent Pat Toomey.)  Unfortunately for him, the switcharoo did not work as he had planned.  Instead of breezing to another term against Toomey in the general election, he's now facing a strong primary challenge from within his new party in Congressman Joe Sestak - and he continues to trail Toomey in the polls.  Sestak's fortunes have faded a bit here lately, so it looks like Specter will at least win the nomination.  Once he gets to the general, though, I've become more convinced with each passing poll that Toomey can actually beat him.  That sentiment is reflected in the Weak GOP Gain projection I'm giving this race to start.

Governor:  Any misgivings I have about Pennsylvania's willingness to elect a Republican to statewide office (i.e. Toomey beating Specter) is somewhat allayed by the current outlook in this race.  It appears at the moment that outgoing Democratic Governor Ed Rendell will take the (D) with him as he leaves.  That's because State Attorney General Tom Corbett, the presumptive GOP nominee, leads all Democratic contenders by double-digits in the polls.  His closest rival is Dan Onorato, an Allegheny county executive.  That's good news for Democrats as he is also the front runner for the nomination.  Corbett's strength in the polls is another demonstration of what may be in store for the Democrats nationwide come November.  In what should be at worst an even-money race for them, this contest is projected as a Weak GOP Gain, and it could be argued that projection is calling it too close.

House District 3:  In a classic partisan wave victory, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper defeated incumbent GOP Congressman Phil English in 2008.  In 2010, the classic power of incumbency gives her a good early position in her quest to keep the seat.  If the current political climate did not favor the GOP, she would probably coast to victory.  That, however, is not the case, and she does face a rocky road to re-election.  Republicans Paul Huber and Mike Kelly are self-fundable candidates who can give Dahlkemper a run for her money.  Either could win the nomination, and either would point to Dahlkemper's Obamacare cave in the general election.  Like Bart Stupak, she changed her vote from no to yes at the last minute.  That decision alone brings her race into play.  Time will tell if the eventual GOP nominee can tighten this race from its current Mod DEM Hold rating.

House District 4:  This district claims a Cook PVI rating of R+6, and Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire has won two elections here during Democratic wave years.  Given those facts, one might expect this seat to be imminently vulnerable for the blue team.  While it is certainly in play, it is not, however, on anyone's short list of probable GOP takeovers.  Sure, the GOP might win here if the Republican wave is of tidal proportions, but Altmire has sticking power this year due to the fact that he has nearly $1.2 million on hand - and no formidable Republicans challenging him.  For the moment, this race is a Mod DEM Hold, though it's a coin flip as to whether it even stays on Election Projection's tracking list.

House District 6:  With his less-than-stellar conservative voting record, GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach isn't particularly well-liked in purist conservative circles, and he has biennially had a major target on his back fastened by Democrats eager to get rid of him.  Nevertheless, he keeps on winning elections - even in huge Democratic cycles.  Last year, Democrats appeared to finally get their wish as he opted to run for governor.  That plan soon changed, and in January he announced his intent to run for re-election to his House seat.  His change of heart had a profound effect on this race.  As Charlie Cook observes, "ever since Gerlach abandoned his run for governor and filed for re-election, Democrats have been a total mess."  And though he trails mightily against wealthy Democrat Doug Pike in fundraising, Cook attributes that to his "gubernatorial detour" and says "come the fall, Gerlach should have the money he needs to make his case."  With that in mind, this race has moved from likely Democratic pickup without him in the race to lean and now likely GOP retention since he's jumped back in.  We'll see how long the current Mod GOP Hold rating lasts, or if the prevailing trend eventually removes him from the vulnerable list altogether.

That's enough for this first installment.  In this pivotal state, we still have seven more competitive House races to go.  I'll cover the rest in the next post.



Filed under:  Pennsylvania  PA Senate  PA House  PA Governor 

Senate:  In a liberal state like Oregon, Ron Wyden fits right in.  Though he has acquired a reputation for bi-partisanship and independence, his voting record belies a solid liberal ideology.  His liberal composite score over the years as calculated by the National Journal is right at 80%.  That mark falls in line with the prevailing mindset of Oregonians, and provides him with strong popularity in the state.  As a result - and aided by $2.8 million war chest - Wyden will not face a credible threat to a third term this year.  Instead, he'll easily win a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  Another reason Wyden won't face a viable GOP challenger in 2010 is because any Republican with designs on a statewide office this year sees winning the open Governor's Mansion as an easier task.  Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is term-limited, so an open seat adds extra appeal to GOP candidates  Frankly, however, the Republicans probably don't have a legitimate shot at this office either.  With either Secretary of State Bill Bradbury or former Governor John Kitzaber sure to win the Democratic nomination, any Republican nominee faces a long uphill road to victory in November.  We'll start this race off as a Mod DEM Hold.

House District 5:  Despite the fact that there hasn't been a close congressional race in Oregon in years, Republicans are excited about their chances to unseat Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in this Salem-based district.  They feel State Representative Scott Bruun is the type of candidate who can present the incumbent with problems, especially in a year when the red winds are blowing.  Currently, all four on my pundit panel rate this race as lean Democrat.  That lands it squarely in the Weak DEM Hold category here at Election Projection.  I suggest keeping an eye on this one as a good measuring stick against the Republican tide.  If this race moves toward Bruun, it should indicate a very big Republican wave.  If it becomes less vulnerable for Schrader in the coming months, that may mean a softening of the GOP momentum nationwide heading toward Election Day.

The rest of the story is available on the Oregon state page.  Don't miss it!

Next stop:  Pennsylvania



Filed under:  Oregon  OR Senate  OR House  OR Governor 

Senate:  One of those senators is up for re-election this year.  Tom Coburn, while not always the darling of establishment Republicans, is a favorite of small-government fiscal conservatives.  His conservative views on money matters put him at odds with former President George W. Bush on occasion but found harmony in this deeply-red state.  As he seeks re-election in 2010, his only potential obstacle, Governor Henry, decided early on against challenging him.  Had Henry jumped in this would have been an exciting, close race.  Without him, it'll be a cakewalk for Coburn, a true Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  If the Democratic incumbent Henry wanted a third term and if he wasn't term-limited, it would be his.  After nearly two terms as governor, Henry remains very popular.  Alas, at least for Democratic number crunchers, he won't be able to run again.  The race for the chief executive office he leaves behind should be quite entertaining.  On the Democratic side, two heavyweights, state Attorney General Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, are vying for the nomination.  Either would be a formidable candidate in the general election with a solid chance to retain this governorship for the Democrats.  On the other side, Republicans are not without a strong candidate themselves.  Primary front runner, Congresswoman Mary Fallin, who has also served as Oklahoma's lieutenant governor, probably gives the GOP a better chance at taking the statehouse than either Democrat has of keeping it.  That's why this race starts as a Weak GOP Gain..

Check out the Oklahoma state page for more good information.

Next stop:  Oregon



Filed under:  Oklahoma  OK Senate  OK Governor 

House District 12.  Pat Tiberi is one of just seven Republican incumbents who are on Election Projection's hotly-contested House race list.  The main reason he is here is because the Democrats have been able to muster a solid challenger this year in Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks.  Initially, her entry into the race for this ever-so-slightly Democratic-leaning district gave pundits reason to view Tiberi as vulnerable.  While his re-election remains in question, his fundraising ability and work ethic on the campaign trail are not.  As the election season begins to heat up in earnest, Tiberi seems less and less vulnerable.  This race is listed as a Mod GOP Hold, but don't be surprised if it becomes "previously competitive" before the fall.

House District 13:  Some races are close because of district demographics, other due to battered incumbents, still others from open seats they sometimes leave behind.  Democrat Betty Sutton is in a contested battle for none of those reasons.  After winning her first two elections with over 60% of the vote, she is looking at a tough re-election this year for one reason - the war chest presumptive GOP nominee, Tom Ganley, brings to the race.  He forwarded over $1 million from his aborted Senate campaign and now has twice that on hand.  By comparison, Sutton's $280,000 seems woefully wanting.  Even so, this is a Democratic district, and Sutton's ties to big labor in this blue-collar area will suit her well.  Until polls come out showing otherwise, she is still projected to garner a close but comfortable Mod DEM Hold.

House District 15:  Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy's battle with Republican Steve Stivers for outgoing GOP congresswoman, Deborah Pryce was a nasty affair.  But it worked for Kilroy as she prevailed with just a plurality of the vote.  This year - as is the case in so many House races - she won't be helped along by a Democratic-friendly tide in her rematch with Stivers.  While I see district 1 as the most likely GOP takeover in the state, Charlie Cook believes a Stivers win here is even more likely.  Call it another Weak GOP Gain.

House District 16:  This race is similar in many respects to District 15 - like Mary Jo Kilroy, Democratic incumbent John Boccieri won his first term two years ago, and like her, he faces a much different political climate this year.  Unlike her, however, he holds nearly a three-to-one advantage in cash on hand over his closest GOP rival.  Money is key in politics, as we all know, and that advantage gives him a much more comfortable starting position than Kilroy has.  Nevertheless, one underestimates the coming GOP tide at one's peril, and GOP frontrunner Jim Renacci should not be taken lightly.  This race starts as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 18:  Finally, there's Zack Space, the Democratic incumbent with the cool name.  He was part of the first blue wave back in 2006, earning an easy victory in the wake of disgraced GOP incumbent Bob Ney's retirement and subsequent prison term.  Enjoying the second blue wave two years ago, he won re-election without much trouble.  In a red year, in this rural district won by John McCain with 53% of the vote, Space should be near the top of the vulnerability scale.  That's not so much the case.  On the one hand, Republicans could not get a first-tier challenger to run against him. And on the other, he just happens to be a very effective fundraiser who will enjoy a substantial money advantage this election season.  Those factors don't completely remove him from danger.  His re-election chances are projected as a Weak DEM Hold.

With Ohio's eight tracked races, you'll definitely want to make the Ohio state page a frequent stop.

Next stop:  Oklahoma



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor 

Senate:  George Voinovich, one of the "RINO-est" senators outside the northeast, has decided not to run for re-election in 2010.  His exit leaves a very competitive open seat behind.   Vying to keep the seat in Republican hands is GOP frontrunner Rob Portman, a former congressman from Ohio and OMB director under George W.  He should have no problem securing the Republican nomination.   Who the Democratic nominee will be is a bit more cloudy.  Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has a small lead in the polls, but Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is a solid candidate with statewide appeal.  Polls show the race between Portman and either Democrat to be very close - neck-and-neck, in fact.  Given that Portman should be less well known than his potential rivals, I'll give him a Weak GOP Hold.  That said, if you want to see an exciting race currently held by the GOP, this is definitely one to watch.

Governor:  The travails of the GOP in Ohio might have been brought on by several factors, but you have to list former Governor Bob Taft as one of the principle culprits.  In late 2005, he recorded the lowest approval rating I've ever seen. That November, Zogby pegged his approval at an unthinkable 6.5%!  Term-limited in 2006, he left his party's chances of retaining his seat in shambles.  Democrat Ted Strickland easily won that election, trouncing Republican Ken Blackwell by 23 points.  This year things won't come so easy for the first-term governor, however.  The lead weights around the Ohio GOP are mostly gone now, and polls show him in a heated battle against former Ohio congressman, John Kasich.   They're locked in a razor-close contest that's sure to go down to the wire.  In the end, I believe the red wave will propel Kasich to a narrow victory.  Thus, the preliminary projection is Weak GOP Gain.

In the next post, we'll look at Ohio's six competitive House races.



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor 

New tally:  234 Democrats, 201 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Florida  FL House  Virginia  VA House  House 

Back to the changes.  Republican Mark Steven Kirk is now projected to win over Democrat Alex Giannoulias in the race for Illinois' open Senate seat, while his partisan colleague, Bill Brady, now leads Democratic Governor Pat Quinn in his re-election bid.  These changes leave the projected balance of power in the Senate at 49 Democrats, 49 Republican and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.  On the gubernatorial stat sheet, EP projects 28 Republicans, 21 Democrats, and 1 Independent.  That's a net gain of 8 seats in the Senate and 4 governorships for the GOP.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Illinois  IL Senate  IL Governor 

Senate:  One of the main reasons voters here will be voting more Republican this year is due to the double-whammy of Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan's decision to retire and Republican Governor John Hoeven's decision to run for his Senate seat.  Both men are wildly popular in the state, though Hoeven is more wildly so.  I'm sure that fact influenced Dorgan as he contemplated his political future and as Hoeven's candidacy became more likely.  Rather than face the state's Republican juggernaut in a Republican climate, Dorgan decided to forego a re-election bid.  Ok, to clarify, I'm not sure he actually admitted that to be the case, but I can't help but wonder.  With Dorgan out and Hoeven in, this race is transformed from a secure Democratic retention to a Solid GOP Gain.

House At-Large District:  Earl Pomeroy won his seat in congress the same year Dorgan was elected to the Senate.  Since then, he's only endured a couple close-calls and regularly wins re-election by comfortable margins.  This year may be different though.  Republican gains are on the horizon, and the target on Pomeroy's back has only grown larger with Dorgan out of the picture.  His most likely opponent will be State Representative Rick Berg.  Rasmussen is the only polling firm I could find that has tested this race since Berg became the GOP frontrunner.  In Rasmussen's March poll, Berg actually leads Pomeroy by 7 points.  On the other hand, pundits have been reluctant to classify the incumbent as imminently vulnerable and still give him an advantage.  Until more polling confirms Rasmussen findings, I'm also giving Pomeroy the nod.  We'll call it a Weak DEM Hold for now.  This is, however, one race I sense will end up in Republican hands after Election Day.

The North Dakota state page has a lot more useful information.

Next stop:  Ohio



Filed under:  North Dakota  ND Senate  ND House 

Senate:  First-term Republican Richard Burr beat out Clintonista Erskine Bowles in 2004 to take over this seat held by failed presidential hopeful and recent tabloid staple, John Edwards.  This year he faces the dreaded incumbent curse.  While Jessie Helms and, before him, B. Everette Jordan held North Carolina's other Senate seat for nearly half a century until Helms' retirement in 2002, senators holding this seat have faced much less friendly outcomes.  Since Sam Ervin's last successful re-election in 1968, no senator has been able to get re-elected here.  This year, it is Burr's turn to try to break the spell.  Early polls show him leading the top three Democratic challengers, but the strength of his numbers varies greatly depending on whom is conducting the poll.  In General, Burr has trouble cracking the 50% mark in most surveys.  That's usually not a good sign for an incumbent.  This race seems eerily similar to Elizabeth Dole's re-election run in 2008.  Leading for most of the campaign, she faltered at the end and lost to Democratic nominee Kay Hagan by a solid margin on Election Day.  One thing Burr won't have to face, however, that certainly handicapped Dole is a political headwind.  In fact, the winds will be blowing in his favor, a factor that lends him less vulnerability.  Among the Democratic candidates, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is the front runner and the most formidable general election opponent for Burr.  That said, the tailwind to which I alluded makes me feel much better about Burr's chances in November.  This race won't be a rout, but it should be a Mod GOP Hold for Burr.

House District 8:  This district saw two very close, very entertaining battles the last two cycles.  In 2006, GOP incumbent Robin Hayes narrowly beat an unknown teacher named Larry Kissell.  Two years later, Kissell took another shot at the sometimes unpopular Hayes.  The second time proved the charm, and Kissell earned a spot in the large Democratic freshman class of 2009.  Now he faces re-election without the help of a national Democratic wave in this Republican-leaning district.  Uh oh for him, right?  Well, not so much, it appears.  The front runner in the GOP field, at least in a financial sense, is a character named Tim D'Annunzio.  Charlie Cook's website has this to say about him.  "GOP strategists are horrified by the prospect that Tim D'Annunzio, a bombastic former Army paratrooper who built a personal fortune selling lightweight body armor to the military following 9-11, could spend his way to the GOP nomination in a May 4 primary.  D'Annunzio sports hefty personal baggage and recently hosted a "Machine Gun Social" fundraiser for his campaign. On his personal blog called "Christ's War," D'Annunzio refers to President Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Kissell as "Liberal Left God Haters." Yikes!  Until the nomination is settled, there's a chance Kissell might face a viable challenger.  Therefore, this race is currently on the hotly-contested list.  It's projected as a Mod DEM Hold at present.  If D'Annunzio wins the nomination and turns out to be as repulsive as evidence indicates, tracking on this race will likely be discontinued.

Check out the North Carolina state page for the rest of the story.

Next stop:  North Dakota



Filed under:  North Carolina  NC Senate  NC House 

House District 1:  Since Democrat Tim Bishop won this seat from a battered incumbent back in 2002, he has not been seriously threatened in three re-election bids.  But neither has he faced a well-funded challenger in an environment unreceptive to Democrats - which is exactly what's coming at him in November.  Combine that with his liberal voting record and you have the makings of close race.  Republican and OfficeTiger entrepreneur Randy Altschuler has the personal wealth to fund his own candidacy and has shown the willingness to do so ($450,000 so far).  A recent SurveyUSA poll puts Altschuler just two points behind Bishop.  Clearly, Altschuler has the potential to win here, though pundits still give a close but clear advantage to Bishop.  As of now, this race projects as a Mod DEM Hold, but you might want to keep close eye on it as we near Election Day.

House District 13:  Like Bishop in District 1 back in 2002, Democrat Mike McMahon benefited from an imploding GOP situation in this district in 2008.  He won two years ago with 61% of the vote even though McCain carried the district with 51%. This year, the GOP is stronger, both locally and nationally, and better prepared to contest for the seat.  Two Republicans seek the nomination, but Mike Grimm, Gulf War veteran, appears to be the front-runner and the better choice to face McMahon.  As in District 1, the pundits currently like the Democratic incumbent to win, but this race is moving with the winds toward the GOP.  It's a Mod DEM Hold race that could tighten or even swing to the GOP in the coming months.

House District 19:  John Hall, like so many other Democrats incumbents, is still relatively new to the Congress, having first won this Republican-leaning district in 2006.  Two years later, he was easily re-elected with 58% of the vote.  But, like so many other Democratic incumbents, he faces a completely different climate in 2010.  Moreover, his probable challenger, ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth, is well-funded and representative of the political outsider that may connect especially well with voters looking for a different kind of change.  Still, the power of incumbency must be pretty strong here as all four on Election Projection's pundit panel give Hall the edge in the general election.  For now, call it a Mod DEM Hold.

House District 20:  Were it not for the fact that the GOP has not been able to field an appetizing candidate to challenge him, partial-term Congressman Scott Murphy would be sitting much more precariously as this election cycle moves into full swing.  Elected last year in a special election by the scantest of margins (726 votes), he should be a ripe takeover target for the GOP.  Apparently, however, the GOP has so far missed the mark.  The consensus among the pundits is that he re-election is "likely."  Nevertheless, at 8%, the projected margin lands him on the hotly-contested list, even if just barely.  If the red wave is large enough to capsize the Democratic majority in the House, Murphy's seat might be swept away.  Short of that, he should win re-election.  Mod DEM Hold.

House District 23:  This area of New York has been at once liberal and Republican in recent memory.  Its penchant for electing liberal GOPers produced a unique special election last November.  An insurgent Conservative Party nominee, Doug Hoffman, ran in opposition to hand-picked Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava and her liberal positions in the issues.  At the eleventh-hour, when Hoffman seemed poised to actually pull off an upset victory, she dropped out of race and threw her support behind Owens.  Indications are that her surprise withdrawal and support for Owens propelled him to a narrow victory.  This year, Hoffman is back, but headed for the GOP nomination this time.  While this rematch is intriguing and should lean toward the GOP, Owens appears to maintain an advantage seven months out.  It's projected here as a Weak DEM Hold currently.

House District 24:  After winning his first election to congress in 2006, Democrat Michael Arcuri could only secure 51% of the vote in his re-election bid in 2008's blue wave election.  Combine that poor showing with his flip-flop vote on Obamacare sandwiched around the entry of a solid GOP challenger into the 2010 edition of the race for this seat, and Arcuri is clearly one of the more-vulnerable of New York's long list of vulnerable House Democrats.  After he voted for the House version of Obamacare, 2008 GOP nominee, Richard Hanna declared his candidacy.  Arcuri then voted against the Senate version of the bill.  Whether Hanna's decision to run influenced Arcuri to change his vote is not known, but, as Charlie Cook's analysis of the race states, "it makes the incumbent look like anything but a profile in political courage."  I personally expect Hanna to prevail in November, but the aggregate pundit ratings give Arcuri an early edge, a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 29:  Finally, we've reached the end of the list in New York.  And we finally have a race Election Projection gives to the GOP.  Democrat Eric Massa didn't just decide not to seek a second term here in November, he decided to call it quits mid-term.  His decision leaves the seat vacant and leaves the Democrats searching for a viable candidate.  On the other hand, the GOP is sitting pretty in this Cook PVI R+5 district where Massa barely won against a poor Republican incumbent two years ago.  With Massa running, this would have been a pure toss-up at this stage.  Without him, it's a Weak GOP Gain.

The New York state page is chock full of more information.  Don't miss it!

Next stop: North Carolina



Filed under:  New York  NY Senate  NY House  NY Governor 

Senate:  Democrat Chuck Schumer is a powerful member of the Senate, serving as vice-chairman of the Senate Democratic Caucus since 2006, chairman of the Senate Rules committee since last year, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from 2005 to 2009, a tenure which saw 14 Senate seats flip from red to blue.  He also excels at fundraising - despite the fact that he faces essentially no real threat to his re-election.  In February, he had an astronomical $19.4 million on hand, tops in the Senate.  Anybody care to guess what his chances to win another term are this year?  Yep, Solid DEM Hold.

Senate (special):  Kristen Gillibrand was appointed to this seat after New York's adopted daughter Hillary Clinton accepted President Obama's offer to become Secretary of State.  She is a fast riser who vaulted to the Senate just 3 years after she won her first political contest, unseating Republican incumbent John Sweeney to assume the House seat from New York's 20th congressional district in 2006.  This year's bid to be elected to the Senate in her own right could hinge on the decision of former Republican Governor George Pataki.  He has yet to announce a run, but he seems to be considering it.  Survey tests between the two show a very competitive race is in store if he jumps in.  If he doesn't, though, Gillibrand position is relatively strong heading into the general election season.  Until Pataki proves otherwise, I'm guessing he won't run.  That's why this race is projected as a Strong DEM Hold.

Governor:  Oh boy, what a mess the New York governorship has been lately!  First, there was Democrat Eliot Spitzer's highly publicized, highly scandalous demise in March of 2008.  Then Spitzer's Lt. Governor, David Paterson, who assumed the role after his resignation, faced all kinds of personal potholes and public oops'es before officially deciding against seeking the Governor's Mansion in 2010 - just 6 days after officially entering the race.  The good news is that, in his absence, the Democrats may have secured a first-tier candidate in NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.  Though he isn't declared yet, his candidacy is likely.  Polls give him solid advantages over all potential GOP challengers.  If he runs, he'll most likely face Rick Lazio, the former congressman who lost the 2000 New York senate election to "sitting" First Lady Hillary Clinton.  Since I'm confident a Cuomo-Lazio matchup in the offing, I feel free to project this race as a Strong DEM Hold.

I'll continue this preview in the next post.  Be sure to check back for "Part 2" soon.



Filed under:  New York  NY Senate  NY House  NY Governor