Senate:  George Voinovich, one of the "RINO-est" senators outside the northeast, has decided not to run for re-election in 2010.  His exit leaves a very competitive open seat behind.   Vying to keep the seat in Republican hands is GOP frontrunner Rob Portman, a former congressman from Ohio and OMB director under George W.  He should have no problem securing the Republican nomination.   Who the Democratic nominee will be is a bit more cloudy.  Lt. Governor Lee Fisher has a small lead in the polls, but Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is a solid candidate with statewide appeal.  Polls show the race between Portman and either Democrat to be very close - neck-and-neck, in fact.  Given that Portman should be less well known than his potential rivals, I'll give him a Weak GOP Hold.  That said, if you want to see an exciting race currently held by the GOP, this is definitely one to watch.

Governor:  The travails of the GOP in Ohio might have been brought on by several factors, but you have to list former Governor Bob Taft as one of the principle culprits.  In late 2005, he recorded the lowest approval rating I've ever seen. That November, Zogby pegged his approval at an unthinkable 6.5%!  Term-limited in 2006, he left his party's chances of retaining his seat in shambles.  Democrat Ted Strickland easily won that election, trouncing Republican Ken Blackwell by 23 points.  This year things won't come so easy for the first-term governor, however.  The lead weights around the Ohio GOP are mostly gone now, and polls show him in a heated battle against former Ohio congressman, John Kasich.   They're locked in a razor-close contest that's sure to go down to the wire.  In the end, I believe the red wave will propel Kasich to a narrow victory.  Thus, the preliminary projection is Weak GOP Gain.

In the next post, we'll look at Ohio's six competitive House races.



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor