House District 12.  Pat Tiberi is one of just seven Republican incumbents who are on Election Projection's hotly-contested House race list.  The main reason he is here is because the Democrats have been able to muster a solid challenger this year in Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks.  Initially, her entry into the race for this ever-so-slightly Democratic-leaning district gave pundits reason to view Tiberi as vulnerable.  While his re-election remains in question, his fundraising ability and work ethic on the campaign trail are not.  As the election season begins to heat up in earnest, Tiberi seems less and less vulnerable.  This race is listed as a Mod GOP Hold, but don't be surprised if it becomes "previously competitive" before the fall.

House District 13:  Some races are close because of district demographics, other due to battered incumbents, still others from open seats they sometimes leave behind.  Democrat Betty Sutton is in a contested battle for none of those reasons.  After winning her first two elections with over 60% of the vote, she is looking at a tough re-election this year for one reason - the war chest presumptive GOP nominee, Tom Ganley, brings to the race.  He forwarded over $1 million from his aborted Senate campaign and now has twice that on hand.  By comparison, Sutton's $280,000 seems woefully wanting.  Even so, this is a Democratic district, and Sutton's ties to big labor in this blue-collar area will suit her well.  Until polls come out showing otherwise, she is still projected to garner a close but comfortable Mod DEM Hold.

House District 15:  Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy's battle with Republican Steve Stivers for outgoing GOP congresswoman, Deborah Pryce was a nasty affair.  But it worked for Kilroy as she prevailed with just a plurality of the vote.  This year - as is the case in so many House races - she won't be helped along by a Democratic-friendly tide in her rematch with Stivers.  While I see district 1 as the most likely GOP takeover in the state, Charlie Cook believes a Stivers win here is even more likely.  Call it another Weak GOP Gain.

House District 16:  This race is similar in many respects to District 15 - like Mary Jo Kilroy, Democratic incumbent John Boccieri won his first term two years ago, and like her, he faces a much different political climate this year.  Unlike her, however, he holds nearly a three-to-one advantage in cash on hand over his closest GOP rival.  Money is key in politics, as we all know, and that advantage gives him a much more comfortable starting position than Kilroy has.  Nevertheless, one underestimates the coming GOP tide at one's peril, and GOP frontrunner Jim Renacci should not be taken lightly.  This race starts as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 18:  Finally, there's Zack Space, the Democratic incumbent with the cool name.  He was part of the first blue wave back in 2006, earning an easy victory in the wake of disgraced GOP incumbent Bob Ney's retirement and subsequent prison term.  Enjoying the second blue wave two years ago, he won re-election without much trouble.  In a red year, in this rural district won by John McCain with 53% of the vote, Space should be near the top of the vulnerability scale.  That's not so much the case.  On the one hand, Republicans could not get a first-tier challenger to run against him. And on the other, he just happens to be a very effective fundraiser who will enjoy a substantial money advantage this election season.  Those factors don't completely remove him from danger.  His re-election chances are projected as a Weak DEM Hold.

With Ohio's eight tracked races, you'll definitely want to make the Ohio state page a frequent stop.

Next stop:  Oklahoma



Filed under:  Ohio  OH Senate  OH House  OH Governor