Senate:  In a liberal state like Oregon, Ron Wyden fits right in.  Though he has acquired a reputation for bi-partisanship and independence, his voting record belies a solid liberal ideology.  His liberal composite score over the years as calculated by the National Journal is right at 80%.  That mark falls in line with the prevailing mindset of Oregonians, and provides him with strong popularity in the state.  As a result - and aided by $2.8 million war chest - Wyden will not face a credible threat to a third term this year.  Instead, he'll easily win a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  Another reason Wyden won't face a viable GOP challenger in 2010 is because any Republican with designs on a statewide office this year sees winning the open Governor's Mansion as an easier task.  Incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is term-limited, so an open seat adds extra appeal to GOP candidates  Frankly, however, the Republicans probably don't have a legitimate shot at this office either.  With either Secretary of State Bill Bradbury or former Governor John Kitzaber sure to win the Democratic nomination, any Republican nominee faces a long uphill road to victory in November.  We'll start this race off as a Mod DEM Hold.

House District 5:  Despite the fact that there hasn't been a close congressional race in Oregon in years, Republicans are excited about their chances to unseat Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in this Salem-based district.  They feel State Representative Scott Bruun is the type of candidate who can present the incumbent with problems, especially in a year when the red winds are blowing.  Currently, all four on my pundit panel rate this race as lean Democrat.  That lands it squarely in the Weak DEM Hold category here at Election Projection.  I suggest keeping an eye on this one as a good measuring stick against the Republican tide.  If this race moves toward Bruun, it should indicate a very big Republican wave.  If it becomes less vulnerable for Schrader in the coming months, that may mean a softening of the GOP momentum nationwide heading toward Election Day.

The rest of the story is available on the Oregon state page.  Don't miss it!

Next stop:  Pennsylvania



Filed under:  Oregon  OR Senate  OR House  OR Governor