House District 8:  Some districts, such as Pennsylvania's 4th, have races that seem to be moving toward the incumbent party candidate.  Others have the opposite feel.  This district is an example of the latter.  Initially thought of as safe, it has moved now to a Mod DEM Hold.  One main reason for the shift is Mike Fitzpatrick's decision to try again for the seat he won in 2004.  Though Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy ousted him just two years later, Fitzpatrick brings to this race name recognition and the current letter-of-the-day after his name.  He also brings the support of local Republican machinery which should enable him to effectively play catch-up in the fundraising arena.  It's true that Murphy has a substantial war chest ($1.3 million), but Fitzpatrick's $470,000 ain't too shabby, especially considering his late start relative to the incumbent.  I predict this race will tighten before November, and, if the night meets moderate expectations for the GOP, don't be surprised to count it among the list of Republican takeovers.

House District 10:  This district has a legitimate rightward lean.  Its Cook PVI is R+8.  Incumbent Democrat Chris Carney has the requisite "conservative" label attached to the D after his name, otherwise he probably would not be the incumbent right now.  His victory in 2006 was largely due to the sex scandal that was Don Sherwood's undoing, but he relied heavily on conservative credentials for his 2008 triumph.  This year, his bid for a third term is a microcosm of the political forces at work nationwide.  Like so many other Democratic incumbents, he faces both the consequences of a yes vote for Obamacare and a Republican candidate backed by Tea Party activists.  Chiropractor David Madeira is just the type of novice candidate that could excite this conservative-leaning area no doubt reeling from Carney's Obamacare vote.  And this is just the type of race that can be impacted by the Tea Party movement.  Right now this race projects as a Weak DEM Hold, but it exudes the urge to flip to red by Election Day.  However, if that is to be the case, Madeira or Tom Marino, the other possible nominee, will have to overcome a substantial financial deficit.  Carney has $665,000 in the bank.  Neither Madeira nor Marino has eclipsed six figures yet in that department.

House District 11:  Democrat incumbent Paul Kanjorski has faced Republican Lou Barletta before - twice, in fact.  In 2002, Kanjorski won the first match up with 56% of the vote.  Six years later, the two butted heads again.  This time, even while President Obama was garnering 57% of the vote in the district, Kanjorski needed all the help he could get to make it to 52%.  The climate has changed for round three, and, for Barletta, that could make all the difference.  Two factors to keep in mind as we move toward the primaries and then onto the general election.  First, how much fight will Corey O'Brien, Kanjorski's primary opponent exert on the incumbent, and, second, how effective will Barletta be in closing an enormous fundraising gap which Kanjorski now leads 6 to 1?  Time will tell, of course, but for now this race is classified as a Weak DEM Hold.

House District 12:  The late John Murtha's unexpected passing has left this seat open and very much in play.  At a Cook PVI of R+1, this district is about as balanced as you can get.  However, the coincidence of the special election to fill Murtha's seat with the statewide primary on May 18 may help Democrats retain it.  That's because in Pennsylvania's closed primary format, the Democrats' 2-1 edge in voter registration here provides them with a structural turnout advantage.  Yet, polls and pundit ratings would give the GOP a slight edge right now with Republican nominee Tim Burns leading the Democrats' pick Mark Critz by 3 in Public Policy Polling's mid-April survey.  In light of that, the projection for the special election is a Weak GOP Gain.  Given the potential for Democratic turnout to be higher proportionally for this special election than they can expect to see in November, if they do lose the seat in 3 weeks, it will be a very difficult task to take it back in 6 months.  On the other hand, if Critz is victorious, this district is sure to land right back on the highly-vulnerable list once the special election dust settles.

House District 15:  At first glance, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan appears to sit in an unusually strong position as a congressional challenger.  He is the party's first choice to run against the Republican incumbent in a district which boasts a slight Democratic lean, and his cash on hand outpaces the incumbent by $6000 - something almost unheard of this early in a congressional race.  Yet, the projection for this race is not all that close.  Callahan's main problem is an issue of timing.  Had he contested for this seat two years ago, he would no doubt be poised to win it.  This year, however, the climate just doesn't suit Democratic candidates who have a penchant for raising taxes.  (As Bethlehem mayor, he advocated a 17% increase in the local sales tax.)  Illustrating voter sentiment, a January poll conducted for incumbent Charlie Dent's campaign shows Dent with an overwhelming 53% to 27% lead over Callahan.  Yes, this is a partisan poll, but Callahan's climb is undeniably substantial even with the positives he has going for him.  The opening projection is a Mod GOP Hold for Dent.  While this race could tighten, if could also widen if Callahan cannot counter the tax and spend mantle Dent is sure to try to pin on him.

House District 17:  After re-districting gave this district a much stronger Republican lean, Democratic incumbent Tim Holden should have had a difficult, if not impossible, challenge holding onto the House seat here.  Instead, Holden has used a conservative voting record and strong personal ties to the more Republican areas of the district to win the last several elections without any trouble - he claimed 64% of the vote here while President Obama could manage just 48%.  Republicans attribute his easy re-elections to a lack of formidable challengers, a shortcoming they think they can remedy this cycle.  State Senator Dave Argull, they believe, can be the threat Holden has not yet faced, and his strength is enhanced by the prevailing political winds.  It remains to be seen if voters in the district will forgive him for voting in his current job for an unpopular legislative pay raise, a move for which he has since apologized.  Pundits appear to view Argull's candidacy in a positive light, rating this race as competitive even considering Holden's previous overwhelming victories.  Based on those sentiments, I rate this race a Mod DEM Hold.

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