House District 2:  In this Republican-leaning district, one number spells trouble for incumbent Democrat Glenn Nye - 62.  That's the percentage of the vote this district gave to new Republican Governor Bob McDonnell last November.  Unlike his last election attempt when Barack Obama's coattails and Republican incumbent Thelma Drake's weakness helped him to a narrow 4-point takeover, Nye will face a headwind and a well-funded, legitimate challenger this time.  However, there is one thing that may keep Nye in this race - or at least avoid an embarrassing blowout loss.  Two GOP candidates have plenty of money and appear ready to spend a lot of it fighting each other for the Republican nomination.  The front runner, and favorite of GOP insiders, is car salesman Scott Rigell.  Running against him is another wealthy Republican, Ben Loyola, a naval reservist who recently loaned his campaign $500,000.  Rigell should win, though Loyola is likely to remind primary voters of his $1000 contribution to Obama in 2008.  (Full disclosure: Rigell has been a reliable financial supporter for McDonnell and says he only donated to Obama for fear of Hillary Clinton's candidacy.)  My feeling is that Rigell will withstand that line of attack from Loyola.  After all, I'm sure plenty of the primary voters in this district had the same fear early in 2008.  After securing the nomination, Rigell will have the edge in the general election against Nye.  Give another Weak GOP Gain to the red team.

House District 5:  Another very vulnerable Democrat represents this district that stretches from Charlottesville down to Danville and Martinsville in southwestern Virginia.  This is Republican country, and incumbent Tom Perriello faces a daunting challenge to keep it in Democratic hands.  Republican primary front runner Robert Hurt is a state senator who already represents about a quarter of this district's voters in the state legislature.  His entry into the race late last year moved it to the toss-up category in the minds of some political observers - Stuart Rothenberg has since moved it to "Tilt R."  The projection here is Weak GOP Gain.  This is the kind of race one would number among the low-hanging GOP pick-up opportunities in a red wave election.  It should switch to red on Election Night, but keep an eye on it.  If Periello can survive, the night will not be the electoral landslide many expect, and the GOP will not be winning the majority in either Capitol Hill chamber.

House District 9:  There aren't many Democrats in congress who represent a district where Obama's notoriety is as acrid as it is in District 9.  Were it not for incumbent Rick Boucher's 15-term history in the district, he would not win another term in this environment.  As it is, he will have to rely on his long record of bringing federal dollars home to these coal mountains of southwestern Virginia to keep the 9th in Democratic hands.  How difficult a task that is will be determined by who runs against him.  Right now it appears he will face State Senator Morgan Griffith who resides just outside the district.  Republicans are hoping State Senator William Wampler will jump in, but that appears less likely as time goes by.  Boucher defeated Wampler's father in 1982 to first win this seat.  The junior Wampler would be the most difficult opponent for Bouchard to beat.  That's not to say Griffith can't be Boucher, however, and the incumbent must once again gain a strong crossover vote in this district which voted for Barack Obama at a dismal 40% clip.  Election Projection sees this race as a Mod DEM Hold at the moment, though it could certainly tighten before votes are cast.

House District 11:  Incumbent Gerry Connolly is member of the 2008 Democratic freshman class.  After 7-term Republican Tom Davis retired, Connolly won a convincing open-seat takeover over Keith Fimian.  While Fimian is back this year, filling his political outsider role, the strongest potential opponent to Connolly is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity.  Problem is, Herrity has to get past Fimian without sustaining too much damage.  In a March poll, Herrity led Fimian 42%-21%, so he looks poised to win what should be an expensive primary contest.  In the general, the prospects of the GOP seem fundamentally much improved over two years ago.  But whether Herrity can overcome Connolly's double-digit margin in 2008 and the benefits of incumbency he's accumulated since remains to be seen.  Currently, I give the incumbent a Mod DEM Hold.  Just as a Tom Periello victory in District 5 would signal a less-than-spectacular GOP House seat gain probably in the low 20's, a Connolly loss here likely would foreshadow a GOP gain of 50 seats or more.

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Filed under:  Virginia  VA House