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| Friday, August 18, 2006 |
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| New Senate approval numbers |
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| SurveyUSA has released
August approval numbers for all 100 senators. I've
incorporated them all into the projections. A few of the results are worth mentioning. Here's a brief rundown of the more interesting
ones.
Jon Kyl (R-Arizona): Kyl's 10-point improvement was the second largest among the 33 senators up for re-election this year. With this
result, Democrat Jim Pederson's long-shot bid to unseat the incumbent seems a bit longer.
Jim Talent (R-Missouri): Talent's first attempt at re-election is proving to be a difficult task. Democrat
Claire McCaskill is a strong contender who has been projected here to take away this swing-state Senate seat. Not anymore. Talent's 6-point
gain in approval has pushed him back into the lead here at Election Projection, returning the Senate majority back to the GOP.
Conrad Burns (R-Montana): Slowly but surely, Senator Burns' numbers are climbing up from the abyss. In each
of the last two surveys, he has gain 4 points. However, at -16, he is still in serious trouble and is projected to lose his seat to Democrat Jon
Tester.
Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey): Menendez's numbers have fallen back into negative territory (-1) after one month
in the black. Nothing to get excited over, GOP fans - the Democrat will keep his seat.
Mike DeWine (R-Ohio): This seat is looking more and more like a Democratic takeover. In a month where most
vulnerable GOP senators saw their numbers improve, DeWine's numbers fell. At -6, he is certainly not dead and buried, but The Blogging Caesar has
this growing sense that this seat is slipping away.
Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania): Well surprise, surprise! Given all the negative press Mr. Santorum has
received over the last year, you might think his approval numbers would be pitiful. In fact, a 6-point gain from the last survey has pushed him
into the black (+1). He still cannot be considered popular in Pennsylvania, but this improvement means he still has some political legs at a time
when most people are counting him out.
Lincoln Chafee (R-Rhode Island): While not a major shift in public opinion, Chafee's 5-point improvement (to +7)
is a welcome sign that his campaign might have hit bottom and turned the corner. Buffeted on both the left and the right, the GOP incumbent is
fighting for his political life. Are these numbers a sign he may be winning that fight? Only time will tell. For now, he remains the
projected loser here at EP.
Maria Cantwell (D-Washington): This should be a welcome bit of news for my Democrat friends out there.
For a few weeks now, it has seemed like GOP challenger Mike McGavick might give the incumbent a real fight. Indeed he may still, but Cantwell has
to be feeling better after seeing these numbers. Her 11-point improvement takes the prize for the largest gain of any senator up for re-election
this year.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 08/18/06 ::
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