|
Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here. Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.
|
| Archives |
|---|
May, 2012
April, 2012
March, 2012
February, 2012
January, 2012
December, 2011
November, 2011
October, 2011
September, 2011
August, 2011
July, 2011
June, 2011
April, 2011
March, 2011
February, 2011
January, 2011
November, 2010
October, 2010
September, 2010
August, 2010
July, 2010
June, 2010
May, 2010
April, 2010
March, 2010
February, 2010
January, 2010
December, 2009
November, 2009
October, 2009
September, 2009
August, 2009
June, 2009
May, 2009
April, 2009
March, 2009
November, 2008
October, 2008
September, 2008
August, 2008
June, 2008
May, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
February, 2008
January, 2008
December, 2007
November, 2007
October, 2007
September, 2007
July, 2007
June, 2007
May, 2007
April, 2007
March, 2007
February, 2007
January, 2007
November, 2006
October, 2006
September, 2006
August, 2006
July, 2006
June, 2006
May, 2006
April, 2006
March, 2006
February, 2006
January, 2006
December, 2005
November, 2005
August, 2005
July, 2005
June, 2005
May, 2005
April, 2005
March, 2005
February, 2005
January, 2005
November, 2004
October, 2004
September, 2004
August, 2004
July, 2004
June, 2004
May, 2004
April, 2004
March, 2004
February, 2004
January, 2004
December, 2003
|
|
| |
|---|
| Friday, August 11, 2006 |
|---|
| Summary of recent changes |
|---|
| If you've browsed through the state pages today, you've probably noticed a rating change or two. Fact is, The Blogging
Caesar has been very busy here at Election Projection. I've re-evaluated all 435 house races and found many more races that I need to track, and
recent polls have nudged several Senate and gubernatorial races into different rating categories. In all, a total of 28 race ratings have been
changed, with 2 more impacted by a change in the favored candidate's party designation. Without further ado, here's the rundown.
I'll start with the two races whose projections changed from one party to another. Coincidentally, they are both in Rhode Island.
Rhode Island Senator:
Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain. This race projection is still
preliminary and will be until after the hotly-contested struggle for the GOP nomination is decided. If incumbent Lincoln Chafee loses the primary,
this race will be a very strong gain for the Democrats. If he wins, recent polls now predict, he will lose a close race to Democrat Sheldon
Whitehouse.
Rhode Island Governor:
Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold. This race is very close.
A recent Rasmussen poll showing a tie at 43% was just enough to give incumbent Republican Don Carcieri the razor-thin edge over Democratic Charles
Fogarty. How close is this race? In the last poll Rasmussen put out, Fogarty led Carcieri 43% to 42%. When a one-point change in one
poll causes a flip, that's a real toss-up!
These two governor's races moved more solidly in the projected winner's direction.
Illinois Governor (Blagojevich vs. Topinka):
Weak Dem Hold to Mod Dem Hold.
Michigan Governor (DeVos vs. Granholm):
Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain.
One Senator is not quite as comfortably ahead now.
Nevada Senate (Ensign vs. Carter):
Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold.
Now, on to the House. Consistent with the negative environment facing the GOP, most of these changes favor the Democrats. The following
races have become competitive and detailed tracking information has been added for each one.
Republican Seats:
Indiana CD-2 (Chocola vs. Donnelly):
possibly competitive to Weak Dem Gain
Texas CD-22 (??? vs. Lampson):
possibly competitive to Weak Dem Gain
Kentucky CD-3 (Northup vs. Yarmuth):
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Illinois CD-6 (Roskam vs. Duckworth):
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Ohio CD-15 (Pryce vs. Kilroy):
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Pennsylvania CD-7 (Weldon vs. Sestak):
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Pennsylvania CD-8 (Fitzpatrick vs. Murphy):
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Virginia CD-2 (Drake vs. Kellam):
uncompetitive to Weak GOP Hold
Democratic Seats:
Iowa CD-3 (Boswell vs. Lamberti):
possibly competitive to Weak Dem Hold
Texas CD-17 (Edwards vs. Taylor):
possibly competitive to Weak Dem Hold
These two races have not turned out to be as competitive as originally projected. They've moved off the race tracking board and into
the possibly competitive category.
California CD-50 (Bilbray vs. Busby):
Mod GOP Hold to possibly competitive
Colorado CD-3 (Salazar vs. Tipton):
Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive
A total of 11 more races previously thought uncompetitive have caught my eye and are now designated possibly competitive. Nine of these are
currently held by Republicans. They are CA-11, CT-5, NV-3, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-7, NY-20, OH-1, and PA-10. The two Democratic seats are SC-5 and
WV-1.
And finally, two other races to note.
Connecticut Senate:
With Ned Lamont's victory in the primary Tuesday, Joe Lieberman has decided to pursue his own seat as an independent.
The Blogging Caesar has declared Lieberman will win (scroll down). As a result this race moves from Strong DEM Hold to
Weak IND Gain.
Vermont Senate:
Originally, this race was designated Strong IND Hold with Bernie Sanders set to succeed Jumpin' Jim
Jeffords. Sanders will indeed win this seat. However, when surfing the Vermont Secretary of State website to update the candidate lists, I
found there that Sanders actually filed as a Democrat. So, until someone can prove otherwise, the Senate race in Vermont will be considered a
Strong DEM Gain.
Well, that'll do it for now. But expect some more changes in the near future. I just found out that Congressional Quarterly has
updated a bunch of their race ratings. The Blogging Caesar's job is never done.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:40am 08/11/06 ::
link |
|
|
|
|
| Election Projection Resources |
|---|
EP's RSS Feed |
RSS
|
| 2010 Projection Results |
|
| 2008 Projection Results |
|
| 2006 Projection Results |
|
| 2004 Projection Results |
|
| Search this site |
provided by Google
|
| Contact Me |
e-mail Scott at:
thebloggingcaesar
-at- yahoo.com
|
|
|
