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| Monday, August 4, 2008 |
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| Daily dispatch |
Preliminary Rating Changes: The situation in Alaska, with the recent indictment of Senator Ted Stevens and the constant negatives of
Representative Don Young, has forced me to re-evaluate my preliminary ratings there. I usually resist changing preliminary ratings, but the prospects of these gentlemen
winning their respective primaries compels me to make an exception. Election Projection now lists both races as Weak DEM Gain. And frankly,
if you're not willing to step down after being indicted on multiple felony counts, as in Stevens' case, perhaps that's what you deserve.
President: National tracking polls from Gallup and Rasmussen are tightening again. However, Republicans shouldn't be get too optimisitic until other national
polls and, especially, state polls follow suit. Case in point: Even though Obama's projected popular vote advantage has been reduced by a third, he still commands a large
electoral vote lead, 338-200, which is unchanged from last Monday. Time will tell whether the recent uptick in McCain's national numbers portends a broader, sustainable recovery
or whether it's just another high point in a permanent up and down cycle of second place.
House: I've gotten up-to-date with many new pundit rating changes for House races. As a result of CQ Politics revised rating of "toss-up" for Democrat Nick
Lampson's CD-22 race in Texas, Election Projection now projects a Weak GOP Gain there. No change results in the overall count this week, however,
due to the rating change in Alaska CD-AL I already mentioned.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:05am 08/05/08 ::
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