Earlier this year, Barack Obama flung open the doors of voter participation and harnessed great masses of new voters on his way to an upset victory in the Democratic primaries.  His eloquent speaking style and charisma have captivated many a Democrat with visions of John F. Kennedy and a Democratic landslide in November.

Meanwhile, John McCain's path to the GOP nomination, while perhaps not as flashy, was just as remarkable.  Late last year, McCain's candidacy was all but dead, floundering behind no less than 4 other Republicans in the polls.  Nevertheless he plodded on as, one after another, GOP frontrunners rose and fell around him.  Now, the septuagenarian former prisoner of war stands at the helm of his party, within one fateful election day from the White House he has sought for so long.

But that may be as close as John McCain will get.  Poll after poll seems to indicate that Barack Obama is the man to beat.  However, given Obama's rock star status in a time of pessimistic economic sentiment and President Bush's dismal approval numbers, McCain is performing surprisingly well.  That we have a race at all is newsworthy.  History suggests that any opposing party candidate could reasonably expect to win easily given our current political and economic climate.  Yet, McCain remains within striking distance.  On the other hand, remain a close second long enough and you'll invariably lose, and the prospects of McCain eclipsing Obama on November 4 are doubtful at best.  A look at the Electoral College will illustrate why.

In 2004, George W. Bush won 286 electoral votes to John Kerry's 252.  Obviously, if McCain were to win all the states Bush won, McCain would be our next president.  That's a tall order.  Analysis of the battleground states this cycle reveals good news for Obama.  In Election Projection's August 5 update, New Mexico and Iowa are projected to go to Obama by comfortable 5.3% and 7.4% margins, respectively.  Nevada is in Obama's column by 2.4%.  These three states own 17 electoral votes and represent all of Bush's 2004 advantage.  (Take 17 from Bush's total and add it to Kerry's, and you have a 269-269 tie.)

But the climb for McCain doesn't end there.  Four states are currently within one point - Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida.  Notice a pattern there?  Yep, that's right, Bush won all those states in 2004.  By contrast, the blue states with the closest projected margins are New Hampshire (4.0%) and Michigan (4.5%), and every other blue state is projected for Obama by at least 8%.  In other words, the numbers will have to move significantly in McCain's favor for him to legitimately contest any Kerry state at all.  So, barring such a seismic shift, he will have to win all four of the big tossup states I listed - and Nevada, to boot - to win the presidency outright.  As it stands right now then, the election is an all or nothing proposition for McCain - win Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio, or say hello to President Barack Obama.

It is not impossible that McCain could do just that.  The energy crisis plays very well for him and the rest of the GOP, and Obama's luster may be waning somewhat of late.  Looking at November 4 from my vantage point today, though, I'd still give Mr. Obama a decided edge.