Today, they've released another milestone edition.  Republicans have pushed ahead to a phenomenal 10-point lead, 51-41.  To put the result in perspective, this same poll had the Democrats ahead by double-digits just before the 2008 elections.  I've used this example before, but it bears repeating.  Imagine a 20-point swing applied to the House race results in 2008 across the board.  It's easy to envision a Republican wave sweeping away the Democratic majority.

I just wish the Republican lead in Rasmussen's generic poll hadn't shrunk to 6 points in their latest release.  It was a full dozen points two weeks ago.  Perhaps Gallup's poll this week is an outlier.  Even so, it is clear that a large red wave is still on its way.



Filed under:  House 

In the House, changes abound.  Ayers, McHenry and Associates, a Republican-leaning polling firm, continued its tour across America, publishing several polls from House races in the Midwest.  Ohio CD-16, the race between Democratic incumbent John Boccieri and Republican challenger Jim Renacci, is red today due to Renacci's 49-35 lead in an Ayers McHenry survey of the district.

The third force of change in today's House ratings is a boatload of ratings changes released by CQPolitics yesterday.  The online magazine updated their rating of 37 House races, 33 in favor of the GOP.  As a result of a rating change from Lean DEM to Toss-up, Florida CD-2 is projected to go to recent GOP primary winner, Steve Southerland.

All today's changes do not benefit the Republicans, however.  Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright's competitive re-election bid in Alabama's 2nd district appears more likely to succeed after CQPolitics changed their outlook on his race from Toss-up to Lean DEM.  Taken together, then, the GOP gains one more net seat in today's House projection, moving the tally here at EP to 220 Democrats and 215 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  AL House  CA Governor  FL House  OH House 

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released the first post-primary poll from Florida.  The result seems to confirm my hunch that Crist will not be able to beat Rubio.  In the poll, the freshly-crowned GOP nominee leads the turncoat governor by 8 points.  That margin is enough to tip the official tracking numbers in his favor, yielding a Weak GOP Hold.  With no additional independent senators projected, the balance of power moves to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.  With the two existing independents caucusing with the Democrats, it will take three more pick-ups to give the GOP a majority in the Senate. Note: A poll from Rasmussen released after today's update was posted further confirms Rubio's lead.  In it, he tops Crist by 10 points.

Florida party-switchers for today don't stop in the Senate.  Democrat Alex Sink, an easy primary winner on Tuesday, has moved smartly ahead of her Republican counterpart, Rick Scott.  Sink had led a couple of polls prior to the primaries, but because, as I said earlier, my Florida projection was preliminary, she did not move ahead in this race here at EP until I plugged in real numbers afterward.  However, with that same Public Policy poll giving her a sizeable lead yesterday, Sink moves right through "weak" territory.  She's now projected at a Mod DEM Gain.  And with Scott having to contend with a reputation that is in some ways soiled, Sink is going to be hard to beat despite Florida's Republican lean.  The statehouse count now stands at 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 Independent.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Florida  FL Senate  FL House 

The strongest candidate also failed to win the nod in CD-5, Harry Mitchell's district.  But as in district 1, that may not matter this year.  David Schweikert will be the one to test the strength of the red wave here in November.  Then there's CD-8.  For the third time in as many races in the Grand Canyon State, the weaker general election candidate took the nomination.  According to Karl Raszewski, political media strategist and EP's "on the ground" reporter, incumbent Gabrielle Giffords can breathe a bit easier knowing she'll face Jesse Kelly, a one-issue (border security) candidate, instead of conservative State Senator Jonathan Paton.

Currently, all three of these seats are projected to stay in Democratic hands, albeit by slim margins.

Florida's results yesterday were much more GOP-friendly.  In CD-2, the contested primary actually took place on the Democratic side where incumbent Allen Boyd narrowly withstood a strong challenge from Al Lawson.  Ironically, GOP nominee Steve Southerland will likely have a better shot to take the seat now that Boyd has survived.  Another positive primary result - at least for GOP fans - came down in Alan Grayson's eighth district.  Daniel Webster, a favorite of Marco Rubio conservatives, won the nomination over Crist backers' man, Kurt Kelly.  Grayson is not expected to prevail in November, an outlook that became more likely with Webster's win.

In CD-25, a rare vulnerable Republican seat, the strongest Republican candidate, David Rivera, won easily but now faces a serious challenge from Democrat Joe Garcia.  This race should be a tight one all the way to November 2nd.  The projection here stands at Mod GOP Hold, but don't be surprised for this one to buck the national trend and move toward blue as we move toward Election Day.



Filed under:  House  Arizona  AZ House  Florida  FL House 

Whoa!  I guess those Tea Party emails claiming the polls were way off in Alaska's GOP Senate primary were right.  It looks like Joe Miller will deny GOP incumbent Lisa Murkowski another term - oh, and yes, I called that one way wrong.  In Arizona, John McCain wins easily, as does Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary in Florida.  Also in the Sunshine State, Rick Scott has pulled out the victory over Bill McCollum to earn the GOP gubernatorial nomination there.

I'll take a look at the House winners later this evening.  There are a combined 8 hotly-contested seats here at Election Proejction from Arizona and Florida alone.  So stay tuned for that.



Filed under:  Senate  Governors  Florida  Alaska  Arizona 

Alaska Senate:  The Tea Party movement has made a bunch of noise here saying GOP incumbent Lisa Murkowski is vulnerable to the primary challenge of Joe Miller.  I don't buy it.  Look for Murkowski to win by a margin similar to her double-digit leads in the polls.  She'll win easily against the Democratic nominee in November, too.

Arizona Senate:  John McCain has expended millions from his campaign war chest to ward off a stout primary run by former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.  The investment will pay off today for him with a return invitation to the general election.

Arizona Governor:  What a difference an issue makes!  Several months ago, Governor Jan Brewer seemed a likely casualty either in the primaries or in November.  But Arizona's decision to enforce already-enacted federal immigration laws catapulted her into the national spotlight - and into re-election shoo-in territory.  Terry Goddard's no contest path to the Democratic nomination will go for naught as a result.

Florida Senate:  What should have been a blowout victory for Republican Marco Rubio over Governor Charlie Crist in the GOP primary has become a meaningless exercise now that Crist is seeking this Senate seat as an independent.  Though polls give Crist a lead currently, I believe his star will fade and Rubio will prevail in November.  On the Democratic side, Congressman Kendrick Meek and self-funder Jeff Greene are running a very close contest for the Democratic nod - and a measly 15-20% cut of the vote on Election Day.

Florida Governor:  This race will feature another three-way general election fight.  On the GOP side, polls have been all over the place.  Will it be seasoned politico Bill McCollum or mega-millionaire Rick Scott?  Depends on whom you ask.  My feeling is that Scott's fast rise and lavish spending will come up short, and McCollum will narrowly win.  On the Democratic side, Alex Sink appears headed for the nomination without much trouble.  Then there's Bud Chiles, son of former Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles.  Like Crist, he's running as an independent.  Unlike Crist, he won't compete.

Vermont Governor:  This open seat race features a bevy of Democrats vying for the chance to pick off what probably should be low-hanging gubernatorial fruit.  Though this state does have a history of electing Republicans to its chief executive position, it remains very deeply blue.  However, Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is polling ahead of the Democratic pack.  That means whoever does win the nomination will have a much tougher time than the fundamentals here suggest.



Filed under:  Governors  Senate  Alaska  Arizona  Florida  Vermont 

As a native North Carolinian, I'm excited to have this kind of race taking place in my neck of the woods, and having a friend and distant cousin working for the Ellmers campaign only increases my interest in it.  So, today I am "adopting" the Etheridge-Ellmers matchup as my spotlight race for the cycle.  What does that mean?  From time to time as we near the election, I'll be posting stuff on the race and how it is progressing.  I hope that this will serve as an interesting "inside look" into a race that represents the possibilities afforded by this year's Republican resurgence.

Right now, most pundits still rate this race a longshot for Ellmers, despite her solid, if scarce, polling numbers and Etheridge's early summer YouTube blunder.  Those who would say she's unlikely to win point to her campaign's lack of funds as part of their rationale.  That's a valid concern, to be sure, but perhaps the recent endorsement by Sarah Palin will improve her financial standing and make her more competitive on that front.

To win the House majority, the GOP probably doesn't have to win this race.  However, much more than the majority is in play for them in the lower chamber, and if the GOP is to realize that tremendous potential, races like this will need to move into the red column.  With polls showing her tied to slightly ahead of Etheridge, I think calling Ellmers a longshot right now is too pessimistic about her chances.  For sure, some healthy fundraising in the coming weeks would remove that label and land this race squarely in toss-up territory.



Filed under:  Adopt-a-race, NC-2  House  North Carolina  NC House  Renee Ellmers 

In three races - FL-2, NC-8 and OH-16 - the Democrat leads by 0.1%, and in a fourth, NM-1, the lead is just 0.3%.  It is entirely possible the next batch of pundit rating changes or generic surveys could usher in the first projected GOP majority in the House since early in 2006.  Beyond the majority, however, potential gains remain numerous.  A shift of 2.1% across the board would yield a 50-seat gain for Republicans.  That would give the GOP 229 seats in the House - almost as many as they held at their highest point during the 12 years of GOP control from 1994 to 2006.

There's a wave building out there, a political wave of a decidedly crimson hue.  It's coming, and it's growing as it nears.  It hasn't gotten to us yet; it won't until November.  But we can hear it already, and the sound is getting louder.  To quote the agent from The Matrix, the sound you hear, if you care to listen, "is the sound of inevitability."  And unlike Neo, the Democrat majority doesn't appear capable of a super-human escape.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  House 

In Wyoming, popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal is term-limited this year.  That's bad news for Democratic chances to hold the Governor's Mansion here.  Today's GOP primary will serve as the de facto deciding election in this race.  Auditor Rita Meyer narrowly leads three other strong GOP candidates in the field.  For the Democrats, Leslie Peterson enjoys comfortable leads in recent polling and should win the nod.

As returns come in this evening, you can track them here.

Update:  I incorrectly noted the GOP frontrunner in Wyoming's gubernatorial primary as "Matt Meyer."  It is in fact Auditor Rita Meyer.  Matt Mead, U.S. attorney, is also in the running.



Filed under:  Senate  Governors  Washington  WA Senate  Wyoming  WY Governor 

As we approach President Barack Obama's first midterm elections, the question regarding the outcome is not whether Democrats will lose seats in the House and Senate, but how many they will lose.  Patrick Ruffini, a well-known political operative and blogger, declared earlier this year that House losses for the Democrats would reach 70 seats or more, surpassing the 54 they lost in the landmark Republican wave election of 1994 and nearly doubling the 39 seats the GOP needs to wrest control of the House from the Democrats.  And Fox News contributor and former Clintonite Dick Morris has claimed for months that Republicans would take not just the House, but the Senate also.

Are these bold statements just sensationalism and wishful thinking, or are there valid reasons for reaching such conclusions?  Even a cursory perusal of the current political landscape and recent electoral history reveals indications that Democrats need worry about November.  But if we take a deeper look, a picture of a potentially massive superstorm on the horizon begins to form.

Let’s start with some structural obstacles Democrats face heading toward Election Day 2010.

The president's party generally loses seats in midterm elections.
From Harry Truman's first midterms through George W. Bush's first, the party in the White House lost an average of 24 seats in the House and just over 2 seats in the Senate.  So history says an immediate disadvantage confronted Democrats right out of the gate.

Democrats have gained substantial seats in recent blue wave elections.
Ironically, Democratic successes in the elections of 2006 and 2008, ushered in by a strong political wind at their back, are making this year especially difficult now that the winds are blowing in the opposite direction.  Many of the 55 net House seats won since 2004 would be difficult for Democrats to hold in any year.  With a strong Republican wind blowing, holding many of them this year will be next to impossible.

Beyond structural disadvantages, there are many signs that the electorate is eager to issue an emphatic rejection of Democratic leadership and their policies on Election Day.

Voters who plan to vote Republican are far more enthusiastic.
One of the well-publicized aspects of Election 2010 has been the tremendous enthusiasm shift among the electorate.  It is hard to overstate the importance of voter enthusiasm, and Republicans are clearly reaping a substantial advantage in this area.  Polling results aside, one need look no further than the open primaries held last week in Missouri and Michigan to see the difference it can make in the voting booth.

Both states conduct open primaries which allow folks to vote in either party primary. In Michigan, a reliably blue state, voters chose the Republican primary by a 2-1 margin!  Missourians did the same by 65% to 35%.  This kind of partisan lean foretells hefty Republican margins all over in November.

Generic congressional polling has moved significantly toward the GOP.
Experts agree that a Democratic advantage of 2 points or so in these surveys represents an even playing field in congressional elections.  In 2006 and 2008, Democrats parlayed double-digit leads in this important metric to large House gains.  This year, we are seeing a much different sentiment rising.  Pollster.com publishes a cumulative average based on many generic congressional polls.  At last count, the GOP leads 46.0% to 40.7%, and the margin is growing.  That's a 15-point turnaround from just two years ago.  To put this transformation in perspective, if we transposed a 15-point shift to all House election results in 2008, that alone would bring a GOP House majority within reach.

But that’s only part of the generic poll story.  Exacerbating the problem for Democrats is the fact that polls measuring "likely voters" give the GOP an even larger advantage.  In truth, getting an accurate turnout model in these polls is guesswork at best, a fact that may mask greater Republican gains than the rosiest outlooks project.

Polls hint that even normally safe Democratic incumbents are vulnerable.
Surprise upsets are an important aspect of any election where one party scores historic gains in Washington.  Iowa CD-2 in 2006 is a perfect example of such an upset.  Throughout the election season that year, this district wasn't on anyone's hotly contested short list.  Yet when the dust settled, Republican Jim Leach was no longer a congressman.  Fast-forward to this summer.  House polls released over the last several weeks show several Democratic incumbents, who have won re-election by large margins in the past, facing challenges that may send them packing come January.

Bob Etheridge (D-NC 2) was just two points ahead of little known Republican nominee Renee Ellmers before the incumbent’s Washington sidewalk misstep was caught on YouTube.  Polls taken since give Ellmers a small lead.  This is a congressman who has enjoyed 58-67% support from his district each of the previous six elections.

Other similar examples abound.  Incumbents in Illinois CD-11 and 17, North Dakota CD-AL, South Dakota CD-AL and Ohio CD-13, to name a few, all won comfortably in 2008.  All are struggling in the polls this year.  It is possible none will survive.  And with so many Democratic incumbents performing poorly among the handful of polls that have been publicly released, one has to wonder how many more unpolled races fall in the same category.

On the Senate side, a prime example of how the Republican tide may effect elections there can be found in Wisconsin.  Entrenched Democratic Senator Russ Feingold should have been given a free re-election pass when former Governor Tommy Thompson declined to challenge him.  That is not the case, however, and Feingold now finds himself in a true toss-up against political novice Ron Johnson.  Moreover, incumbent senators in California (Boxer) and Washington (Murray) are also in toss-up struggles in these two Democratic strongholds.

Finally, the issues that drive news cycles continue to fuel the Republican wave.
In Missouri's primary last week, the Show-Me State had the opportunity to show us all how they feel about ObamaCare.  Seventy-one percent came down against it.  For Democrats in Congress who voted for the bill, that result has to be a chilling omen.  It also demonstrates how badly Democratic leadership's ongoing attempts to paint ObamaCare in a positive light are missing their mark with the American people.

But ObamaCare is just one, albeit large, issue stoking voter angst against Democrats and their liberal policies.  Consider New York City's approval for a mosque to be built near Ground Zero and Judge Vaughn Walker's decision to overturn Proposition 8, a ballot initiative which added a traditional marriage amendment to California's constitution.  Consider further a growing circle of scandals involving Democrats headlined by Congressman Charles Rangel's alleged misdeeds.  Through a steady stream of current events like these, voters are regularly reminded how far from their ideals Democrats in power have steered the national agenda.  November 2 will be their chance to say enough is enough, and they look poised to say it loudly and clearly.

Political winds have a way of abating quickly or even making U-turns without warning, and we still have nearly three months for the electorate's mood to shift and reduce Democratic losses on Capitol Hill.  However, taking all these signs at face value, it is hard to avoid coming away with the impression that we are in the midst of an historic election season - one that could make Ruffini and Morris appear prophetic.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  Senate  House 

Benefiting Democrats is West Virginia's first district.  A Democratic poll completed on August 2 gives Democratic nominee Michael Oliverio a huge 52%-36% lead over Republican David McKinley.  The entire EP pundit panel rates this race a toss-up, so some doubt has to be cast on this polls results.

Two seats changed from blue to red from today's updates.  Just as a Democrat poll vaulted Oliverio into the lead, a Republican poll has moved Republican Adam Kinzinger ahead of incumbent Democrat, Debbie Halvorson.  And, like that poll, this one also raises suspicions.  Partisan polls do tend to be partisan.  That's why I adjust all these House polls before entering them in the calculations by deleting 2 points from the candidate of the pollster's party and adding 2 points to the other.  Even so, polls with large margins can still sway the results.

The second blue-to-red change comes out of Wisconsin where a We Ask America poll gives Republican Sean Duffy a decided edge over Democrat Julie Lassa to replace outgoing Congressman David Obey (D) in District 7.  Since the primaries have not occurred yet in Wisconsin, this change is a preliminary switch.  By the way, for those who doubt We Ask America's legitimacy as a pollster, here are some favorable comments about them.

These changes bring the net Republican gain in the House to a high so far this cycle at EP.  They are now projected to gain 35 seats while losing just 2.  The House tally moves to 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, just 6 GOP gains away from a Republican majority.



Filed under:  House  Illinois  IL House  West Virginia  WV House  Wisconsin  WI House 

In Colorado, the fate of Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet hangs in the balance.  The partial-term senator is facing a strong challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.  Recent polling shows the race to be a toss-up, probably not a good sign for the Bennet.  On the Republican side, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton and DA Ken Buck are also in a toss-up contest.  Buck is the Tea Party favorite and may benefit from voter enthusiasm.

Moving from the Rockies to the Northeast, we check in on the Nutmeg State.  Connecticut has one of the more intriguing candidates of the cycle in wrestling executive Linda McMahon.  Though she received enough support at the Republican convention earlier this year to garner the Senate nomination, two other GOP hopefuls qualified for the primary ballot.  Polls show McMahon to be the prohibitive favorite, however.  In the gubernatorial race, close primary contests await in both parties.  Former Senate nominee Ned Lamont appears to be a few points ahead of Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy on the Democratic ballot, while former ambassador Republican Tom Foley's double-digit lead has shrunk considerably of late as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has made a late charge.  Fedele now looks to be within striking distance though Foley still holds a small advantage.

The last primary to cover is in Minnesota.  Just this week, I had to change the preliminary projection on the governor's race from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DFL Gain because of former Senator Mark Dayton's large lead in the polls.  He should win the Democratic nomination without problem and looks poised to best presumptive GOP nominee Tom Emmer in the general.

Finally, Georgia Republicans will choose between Former GA Secretary of State Karen Handel and Former Congressman Nathan Deal to be their nominee in the gubernatorial race.  Former Governor Roy Barnes awaits the winner.  Recent polls have been neck-and-neck.  Who wins is anybody's guess right now, but general elections polls show Deal to be the stronger candidate against Barnes in November.



Filed under:  Colorado  Connecticut  Minnesota  Georgia  CO Senate  MN Governor  GA Governor 

Party nominees for two highly-vulnerable Democratic House seats will also be determined today.  A crowded field on both sides battle for outgoing Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon's District 6 seat.  In District 8, John Tanner, another retiring Democrat, will leave his seat for one of five Republicans or two Democrats vying for party nods there.  Both seats are currently projected to go to the Republicans on Election Day.

Once the returns start coming in this evening, you can track them here.



Filed under:  Tennessee  TN House  TN Governor 

In Kansas, the successor to Republican Senator Sam Brownback will be decided tonight.  OK, technically that won't happen until November 2, but just as Brownback is a shoo-in to become governor, the GOP Senate nominee will be heavily favored to win the general.  That nominee will most likely be Congressman Jerry Moran.  He holds double-digit leads in the polls over another Kansas congressman, Todd Tiahrt. 

Up in Michigan, the gubernatorial primaries for both parties are too close to call, but the top three Republicans are all well-positioned to earn a statehouse takeover against the top two Democrats.  On the Democratic side, there are conflicting polling results that are quite stark.  A mid-July poll released by the Glengariff Group shows Virg Bernero, mayor of Lansing, 9 points ahead of Michigan State House Speaker Andy Dillon.  But, a more-recent EPIC-MRA poll gives Dillon an 8-point lead.

Finally, Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan will officially begin their highly-anticipated head-to-head battle for the open Senate seat in Missouri.  I have been waiting for this primary to pass for months now so that I can initiate projection tracking on the race.  In fact, I'm looking forward to moving past preliminary projections on all these races and getting some hard numbers in the calculations.

After today, just 20 state primaries remain on the 2010 election calendar.  The last, Hawaii's, is on tap for September 18.



Filed under:  Kansas  KS Senate  Michigan  MI Governor  Missouri  MO Senate 

This year, I am trying a new way to generate revenue and, hopefully, more traffic.  Instead of offering subscription-based premium content, all pages and updates on Election Projection will be open to everyone.  But I still need the support of Election Projection's fans.  To that end, I'm asking for contributions once a month through EP's "Firstday Fundraisers."

Please consider contributing what you can to help keep Election Projection up and running.  You can click the button below to make a secure contribution.

Previous contributors:  36 Contributors this month:  50 Total contributors to date:  86 Goal for 2010:  600

Thank you so much for your generosity.



Filed under:  EP Support