On to this week's projection changes.  In the House, we had two days of numerous rating changes.  This resulted from adjusting Pollster.com's generic composite average.  I learned from having 8 of 10 GOP-favored rating changes move back to the Democrats the next day.  Instead of updating that figure each day, I will only be updating it once a week - on Saturday.

The net movement this week in the House brought the GOP one seat closer to the projected majority.  With the tally at 221-214, Republicans are four seats away.  In the statehouse races, a couple of rating changes occurred, but nothing to move any races from one color to another.  The Senate, which had been stable for a couple weeks, did see a late party-switcher.  Just today, a poll released by We Ask America put Republican Mark Steven Kirk up slightly in his race against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias.  The Senate tally stands at 50-47-3 in favor of the DEMs.

Finally, a word about polls and ties.  In Washington, the race between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi is sure to be a close contest.  The latest poll in the race comes from SurveyUSA and gives Rossi a large 7-point lead.  I am suspicious of those numbers, yet I can't pick and choose which polls I use and maintain objectivity in my projections.

The poll counters two other recent polls' findings and moves the projected margin to exactly 0.0% - a tie.  What I have decided to do to address this type of situation is give the benefit of the doubt to the candidate who is leading in more polls.  In this case, I've adjusted the projection by 0.2% in Murray's favor since she leads in two of three polls in the formula's calculations.  This plan also helps combat SurveyUSA's suspiciously GOP-favored numbers.

Looking forward to a busy and exciting fall!

Talk to you again next week.