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  Politics and Elections
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
"On the ground" Florida primary election preview
As promised, here is Karl's on the ground report on today's primary elections in House races in Florida.  Again, this report does not attempt to pick winners.  Rather, it looks at the impact the primary winners could have on the general election in November.
FL-2:  There are competitive primaries on both sides of the aisle in this race.  Despite the R+6 rating, Democrats have successfully held this seat since 1990, and Rep Allen Boyd has had it for 7 terms.  He's facing State Senator Al Lawson, who has polled strongly against him in several polls.  Boyd, who has a habit for sticking his foot in his mouth, has openly said at political events that many Democrats are racist in FL-2 and that they'll vote for the Republican over Lawson, who is Black.  On the Republican side Steve Southerland is the favorite, with only Ed Hendry having any shot at catching him.  Southerland has out-raised Boyd in campaign contributions this year, and Boyd hasn't faced serious competition in over a decade.  He has a lot of funds saved up but is an inexperienced campaigner.  Southerland is certainly the favorite to bring this seat home for the GOP in November over Boyd.  However, despite Boyd's claim of racist democrat voters, a Lawson victory in the primary could make this race a Tossup.

FL-3:  Rep Corrine Brown has face many ethics questions, and could have a tough primary against Scott Fortune.  Despite the D+18 rating and the fact that this is a majority Black district, it is a conservative district because of the high number of Military living in the area.  If Brown survives her primary, she could be vulnerable.  However, only black conservative Chris Nwasike has the opportunity to defeat her, and he has a few primary challengers to get through first.

FL-5:  While this is an R+9 district, retiring Republican Ginny Brown-Waite took it from Democrats by a narrow margin in 2002.  While The Democrats haven't fielded strong candidates in a few cycles, this year may be different.  Jim Piccillo, who switched from R to D to run for this seat, is capable of making this race competitive in November.  If Republican Sherrif Rick Nugent wins the primary, this seat should stay with the GOP, however, if Tea Party candidate Jason Sager wins, he'll be more vulnerable to Picollo.

FL-8:  Alan Grayson is one of the most likely Democrats to be unseated in November since he won FL-8 almost solely on Obama's coattails.  As a result, Republicans rushed to enter this race.  The 2 GOP frontrunners are State Senator Kurt Kelly and conservative Dan Webster.  Kelly is getting the moderate establishment Charlie Crist vote, while Webster has received the endorsement of Jeb Bush.  He's getting a lot of support from Rubio conservatives.  Some argue that the moderate Kelly is the better general election candidate, but it's actually Webster who will be more likely to defeat Grayson.  He should be able to cut into the moderate vote and do much better with conservative voters.

FL-24:  This R+4 district is one of the most interesting races in the country because of the vulnerability of freshmen Democratic Rep Suzanne Kosmas.  She's very vulnerable in tomorrow's primary to Paul Partyka, who has lead in the 2 most recent polls.  On the GOP side, it's been considered a 3-way race between Craig Miller, Karen Diebel and Sandy Adams.  Diebel looked like the leader, but a 911 call surfaced where she claimed a snake was thrown in her pool by "political operatives."  Craig Miller has since attacked her "mental fitness" to serve, even sending out a paid mailer where two of her co-workers discuss her "delusional" nature.  Miller & Diebel have both been damaged by these attacks, and conservative Sandy Adams now looks like the favorite.  If Adams wins the primary, she'll be the favorite over either Partyka or Kosmas.  If Miller wins, he'd likely defeat Kosmas, but Partyka could be a tough race for him.  Diebel will have a hard time defeating either of the Democrats after the damage caused.

FL-25:  Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is leaving this seat and moving to the safer one that his brother, Lincoln, is retiring from.  Republicans have entered State Rep David Rivera, who is a strong candidate in this heavily Cuban district, and should defeat "Tea Party Republican" Paul Crespo.  However, the Tea Party has also managed to get Roly Arrojo on the ballot as 3rd Party candidate, which will take away some conservative Republican support in November.  Democrats have two candidates running in the primary, and who wins that race could likely determine whether Rivera keeps this seat for Republicans.  If Director of the Cuban American National Foundation Joe Garcia, who almost defeated Diaz-Balart in this district, wins the primary, then Rivera will have a very tough race, but if Luis Meurice is victorious, Rivera will have an easier time.

The information in this post courtesy of
Karl Raszewski, Political Media Strategist
R.P.C.Strategies@aol.com




Filed under:  On the ground  House  Florida  FL House 



posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20am 08/24/10::
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