However, NC-8 still remains a major focus of the NCGOP and the NRCC, and many Tea Party voters have come around to supporting GOP nominee Harold Johnson after their favorite, Tim D'Annunzio, was shown to be a strange, troubled candidate, who had deceived even close supporters about his past.  D'Annunzio's subsequent lawsuit against the NCGOP and Johnson has actually helped to reveal his true nature and allowed for some GOP reconciliation between his former supporters and Johnson.

In NC-13, where Tea Party candidate Bill Randall won the run-off, many in the conservative GOP base are unconvinced that conspiracy-prone Randall can stay on message long enough to defeat the Democratic incumbent, Brad Miller.  NC-13 is a long, strangely gerrymandered district, which pairs conservative white rural Republican vote in the northern counties with urban portions of inner-city Raleigh and Greensboro.  While the NRCC hopes for NC-13 have dwindled, if Randall, a Black Republican from Raleigh, can make meaningful gains among traditionally Dem-leaning voters in those urban areas, he still has some opportunity for a victory.  (Scott's note:  He could also pull out a squeaker if the enthusiasm gap yields high enough Republican turnout in this district on Election Day.  That seems to be a more plausible path to victory for Randall than winning over the urban Democratic vote.)

Beyond these early targets, several other seats are now in play.  NC-7 and NC-11, which seemed safe for Democrat Rep. Mike McIntyre and Rep. Heath Shuler - especially after they voted against Obamacare - are now some of the most fertile areas for Republican pick-ups.  Republicans already have a voting advantage in these districts, and despite McIntyre and Shuler being Blue Dogs, they're still Democrats who would vote to keep Pelosi as Speaker.  This, as much as anything, has opened up these races.  But there are other issues aiding Republicans as well.

In NC-7, Republicans got an unexpected surprise when conservative Catholic Marine Ilario Pantano entered the race.  The GOP had already started backing 2008 nominee Will Breazeale again in 2010 when Pantano entered the race.  Republicans instantly recognized Pantano's strength, and several even negated their endorsement of Breazeale to support him.  McIntyre is also being hurt by liberal Democrats who are taking part in a boycott of his campaign in protest of his vote against Obamacare.  Started by students at UNC-Wilmington, the boycott is refusing to volunteer for his campaign and promising to stay home on Election Day.  This angst from the left, coupled with the fact that Pantano has proven to be an intelligent and inspiring campaigner, gives the GOP an opportunity to pick up this seat for the first time since the Civil War era.

As for NC-11, Shuler has played a role in opening this race up.  Instead of settling in as a consistent Blue Dog who has high approval, even among Republicans, Shuler decided to be proactive.  His campaign ran a push poll in the district.  The pollster conducting the poll suggested that his GOP opponent Jeff Miller's business was failing because of recent losses and that he'd soon be closing down.  While Miller's business had a tough year due to recession, he had laid off no workers and had no intention to close.  Shuler's poll, designed to undermine Miller's candidacy, backfired instead when workers from Miller's business went to the local media, fearing they'd lose their jobs.  Shuler's campaign was forced to admit they had paid for the poll and were only making assumptions about Miller's business, not working from fact.  This instantly dropped Shuler's approval and removed him from any high ground that he hoped to hold over other endangered "corrupt" Democrats.  A poll was conducted the next week by Survey USA which showed that Shuler had fallen well below 50% and into a dead heat with Miller.

Two other districts, NC-2 and NC-4, have recently become competitive as well.  These were districts where Republicans made half their 1994 gains in North Carolina, but both went back to Democrats two years later.  In 2000, Democrats had control of redistricting in the state and made both districts slightly safer for Democrats.  Republicans haven't really come close to taking either since.  This meant that the NRCC focused no time on candidate development in either district in 2010.  Both races started out with a GOP field of 2008 nominees and a handful of political unknowns.

In NC-2, Renee Ellmers managed a decisive enough victory in the GOP Primary to avoid a run-off.  Ellmers, a political newcomer, is a nurse, wife of a doctor and mother.  She was active in grassroots activity against Obamacare and was the strongest candidate in the 2010 GOP field.  However, Etheridge has displayed an ability to hold onto this R+2 district.  His connections here provide him with friends from both parties, and he seemed safe for re-election.  This is likely why he felt comfortable voting for Obamacare this past spring.  But that was the first chink in his armor, and his poll numbers fell below 50%.  Then came his angry tirade [caught on YouTube].  This severely eroded his middle class support in the district, especially among women.  Ellmers suddenly looked like the perfect candidate to challenge this bloated lifetime politician and his entitlement mentality.  This race is far from an easy GOP gain, but recent polling and Etheridge's own actions show a him to be very vulnerable in 2010.

Finally, there's NC-4, rated PVI D+8 by Charlie Cook. Incumbent Democrat David Price should be a shoo-in for re-election, but his support of Obamacare and every other bill pushed by the White House has cost him support among many middle-class Democrats who see Obama's economic policies as an utter failure.  Then there's 2008 nominee BJ Lawson.  He started campaigning for 2010 the day after his 2008 loss.  In a 4-way GOP primary, which included a strong challenge from Frank Roche, Lawson managed to win solidly enough to avoid a run-off.  It's rare that a candidate who lost by 26% returns to pose a stronger challenge to the incumbent two years later, but it's almost certain that BJ Lawson will do just that.

With the Presidential elections the focus of 2008, Lawson was defined by Democrats as a computer company owner from Florida.  It went unnoticed that he was also a physician who had graduated from Duke University Medical School, located in the district, and has lived in North Carolina ever since.  This is now well-known and helped him have a strong media presence during the debate on Obamacare.  He published several well-informed and thoughtful op-ed pieces on the subject in local publications.  And considering Rep. Price is a UNC grad, many Duke students and alumni - both Republican and Democrat - have gotten behind Lawson's campaign this time around, hoping to finally have a "Blue Devil congressman."  NC-4 remains the toughest of the 6 CDs for the Republicans to win, but Price is certainly vulnerable.  If the "Republican wave" continues to rise while Obama's approval falls, Lawson certainly is capable of picking this seat up for the Republicans.