AZ-3:  This is the R+9 open seat of retiring Republican Congressman John Shadegg.  A dozen candidates or so entered this race because the primary winner is viewed as the heir-apparent to Shadegg in this heavily Republican district.  Of the many contenders, four have been fighting it out at the top.  But in a race where a relatively low percentage of the vote will take the prize, several others have the opportunity to sneak in and take the nomination, especially considering how the top-tier candidates have been trashing each other. 

The race started out with former VP Dan Quayle's son Ben Quayle, State Senator Jim Waring and Mayor Vernon Parker standing above the field in-terms of visibility and name recognition.  But Steve Moak has used his money to run a strong paid-media campaign that has propelled him to the top as well.  Parker, who is endorsed by Arpaio, has also received DC-based GOP support because - like Tim Scott, Allen West and Ryan Frazier - he is a high profile black conservative with a genuine opportunity for victory in November.  Waring is the clear favorite of the state GOP party and Senator McCain.  Ben Quayle has never had any major support from any Arizona politicians.  He has sold himself as the Tea Party candidate.  A strong front-runner at one point, Qualye has fallen sharply after several major debacles (i.e. borrowing kids for paid media photos, admitting to writing posts for a female-bashing website).

Parker or Waring would certainly keep this seat in GOP column in November.  Moak and state legislators Pam Gorman or Sam Clump would also likely win due to the registration advantage.  On the other hand, should Quayle win this race, his baggage will make it hard for him to keep conservative Democrat and father-of-five, John Hulburd from taking this one for the Democrats.

AZ-5:  While this seat is rated R+5, it is very much a swing seat that will likely go back and forth between parties every few cycles.  Democrat Harry Mitchell is not very popular these days, but none of his GOP rivals have really managed to pull the majority of Republicans together.  David Schweikert has ran for office twice before and lost, and Susan Bitters Smith was the 2008 nominee that Mitchell easily defeated.  She's also known for using a 2008 Arpaio endorsement to make it appear as if he supports her again, which he does not.  If either of these candidates wins the primary, it's not likely they can unseat Mitchell.

Tea Party favorite Mark Spinks exited the race after his 2005 arrest for indecent exposure was revealed.  The top two candidates are Dr. Chris Salvino and Jim Ward.  Salvino initially used Obamacare to gain support, but has since switched to border issues to be more competitive against Ward.  For his part, Ward has the support of most conservatives and is becoming the favorite of the GOP establishment as well.  Though neither is a sure shot to defeat Mitchell, Ward is certainly the strongest candidate with the best chance to succeed in November.

AZ-8:  Brian Miller, president of the Freshman 50 PAC, exited this race after facing questions about spending PAC funds on his own race.  As a result, the race is down to conservative State Senator Jonathan Paton and Tea Party/Arpaio candidate and veteran Jesse Kelly.  Kelly was an early favorite, and attempted to define Paton as the "establishment" Republican.  However, Paton's record as a legislator proved him to be a strong conservative, who continually takes on the governor and the leadership of both parties.  The race between Kelly and Paton is very close, and either could win the primary.  However, while Paton almost certainly will defeat embattled Democrat incumbent Gabrielle Giffords in November, Kelly may have a tougher time.  He'll have to prove he's about more than just border security.