Alaska Senate:  The Tea Party movement has made a bunch of noise here saying GOP incumbent Lisa Murkowski is vulnerable to the primary challenge of Joe Miller.  I don't buy it.  Look for Murkowski to win by a margin similar to her double-digit leads in the polls.  She'll win easily against the Democratic nominee in November, too.

Arizona Senate:  John McCain has expended millions from his campaign war chest to ward off a stout primary run by former Congressman J.D. Hayworth.  The investment will pay off today for him with a return invitation to the general election.

Arizona Governor:  What a difference an issue makes!  Several months ago, Governor Jan Brewer seemed a likely casualty either in the primaries or in November.  But Arizona's decision to enforce already-enacted federal immigration laws catapulted her into the national spotlight - and into re-election shoo-in territory.  Terry Goddard's no contest path to the Democratic nomination will go for naught as a result.

Florida Senate:  What should have been a blowout victory for Republican Marco Rubio over Governor Charlie Crist in the GOP primary has become a meaningless exercise now that Crist is seeking this Senate seat as an independent.  Though polls give Crist a lead currently, I believe his star will fade and Rubio will prevail in November.  On the Democratic side, Congressman Kendrick Meek and self-funder Jeff Greene are running a very close contest for the Democratic nod - and a measly 15-20% cut of the vote on Election Day.

Florida Governor:  This race will feature another three-way general election fight.  On the GOP side, polls have been all over the place.  Will it be seasoned politico Bill McCollum or mega-millionaire Rick Scott?  Depends on whom you ask.  My feeling is that Scott's fast rise and lavish spending will come up short, and McCollum will narrowly win.  On the Democratic side, Alex Sink appears headed for the nomination without much trouble.  Then there's Bud Chiles, son of former Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles.  Like Crist, he's running as an independent.  Unlike Crist, he won't compete.

Vermont Governor:  This open seat race features a bevy of Democrats vying for the chance to pick off what probably should be low-hanging gubernatorial fruit.  Though this state does have a history of electing Republicans to its chief executive position, it remains very deeply blue.  However, Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is polling ahead of the Democratic pack.  That means whoever does win the nomination will have a much tougher time than the fundamentals here suggest.



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