Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released the first post-primary poll from Florida.  The result seems to confirm my hunch that Crist will not be able to beat Rubio.  In the poll, the freshly-crowned GOP nominee leads the turncoat governor by 8 points.  That margin is enough to tip the official tracking numbers in his favor, yielding a Weak GOP Hold.  With no additional independent senators projected, the balance of power moves to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents.  With the two existing independents caucusing with the Democrats, it will take three more pick-ups to give the GOP a majority in the Senate. Note: A poll from Rasmussen released after today's update was posted further confirms Rubio's lead.  In it, he tops Crist by 10 points.

Florida party-switchers for today don't stop in the Senate.  Democrat Alex Sink, an easy primary winner on Tuesday, has moved smartly ahead of her Republican counterpart, Rick Scott.  Sink had led a couple of polls prior to the primaries, but because, as I said earlier, my Florida projection was preliminary, she did not move ahead in this race here at EP until I plugged in real numbers afterward.  However, with that same Public Policy poll giving her a sizeable lead yesterday, Sink moves right through "weak" territory.  She's now projected at a Mod DEM Gain.  And with Scott having to contend with a reputation that is in some ways soiled, Sink is going to be hard to beat despite Florida's Republican lean.  The statehouse count now stands at 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats and 1 Independent.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Florida  FL Senate  FL House