Benefiting Democrats is West Virginia's first district.  A Democratic poll completed on August 2 gives Democratic nominee Michael Oliverio a huge 52%-36% lead over Republican David McKinley.  The entire EP pundit panel rates this race a toss-up, so some doubt has to be cast on this polls results.

Two seats changed from blue to red from today's updates.  Just as a Democrat poll vaulted Oliverio into the lead, a Republican poll has moved Republican Adam Kinzinger ahead of incumbent Democrat, Debbie Halvorson.  And, like that poll, this one also raises suspicions.  Partisan polls do tend to be partisan.  That's why I adjust all these House polls before entering them in the calculations by deleting 2 points from the candidate of the pollster's party and adding 2 points to the other.  Even so, polls with large margins can still sway the results.

The second blue-to-red change comes out of Wisconsin where a We Ask America poll gives Republican Sean Duffy a decided edge over Democrat Julie Lassa to replace outgoing Congressman David Obey (D) in District 7.  Since the primaries have not occurred yet in Wisconsin, this change is a preliminary switch.  By the way, for those who doubt We Ask America's legitimacy as a pollster, here are some favorable comments about them.

These changes bring the net Republican gain in the House to a high so far this cycle at EP.  They are now projected to gain 35 seats while losing just 2.  The House tally moves to 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, just 6 GOP gains away from a Republican majority.



Filed under:  House  Illinois  IL House  West Virginia  WV House  Wisconsin  WI House