Though much less publicized, these two elections could have great import on balance of power.  Rumors have been circulating that Republican Dale Shultz, who was once a Democrat, may be considering switching back.  Such a move would give control to the Democrats.  Hence, today's races could once again decide who controls the Wisconsin State Senate.

Actually, since only the 12 district stands to be competitive, all eyes will be on that race.  The incumbent, Jim Holperin, narrowly won the district in 2008, 51-49, even while President Obama carried it 54-46.  Two years later, Republican Governor Scott Walker won here by a landslide 58-42 margin.  If today's vote falls somewhere in between those results, Holperin will likely lose to Republican and Tea Party activist Kim Simac.  If that were to happen, Shultz's decision to bolt the GOP would have much less impact.

You can follow the returns as they come in tonight at this link



Filed under:  2011 Special Elections 

One more thing:  If Obama's job approval stays where it is now for the next 15 months, Rick Perry is your next POTUS.  Mark my words.



Filed under:  2012 Elections 

A view of the latest polls and other pertinent information about the recall elections can be found here.  I will post a link to the results as soon as it becomes available.

Update:  You can follow the results at this link.  Returns should start coming after 8pm local time.

Update2 (10:25pm):  This link is updating the returns faster.  So far, 2 GOPers have won (Sheila Hardorf and Robert Cowles, both expected to win), Luther Olsen is leading 54-46 with 78% reporting, Randy Hopper is up with 15% reporting, and Alberta Darling is down with 18% reporting.  Dan Kapanke, who is expected to lose, is losing 53-47 with 45% reporting.  The races to watch at this point look to be Hopper's and Darling's.  Democrats need both to gain the majority - assuming Olsen holds on.



Filed under:  2011 Special Elections 

(A presentation illustrating just how close this correlation has been used to be posted here.  It served as a cornerstone of my first Election Projection formula back in 2004.  Unfortunately, it has since been removed, so I don't have the specifics readily available.)

At 42% approval, Gallup's survey indicates Obama would almost certainly be defeated if the election were held today - regardless of who his GOP opponent might be.  That's the bad news for Democrats.  The good news, of course, is that the election is not being held today.  In fact, the president still has 456 days to get that approval rating up above 50% and into winning territory.  For us political fans - liberals and conservatives alike - it'll be fun to watch how that quest progresses over the next 15 months.



Filed under:  2012 Elections  President Obama