I bet the next email I get from John Kerry will claim Bush has finally succumbed to Democrat demands for troop withdrawal.  Of course, the truth is that this move was planned all along.  We planned from the start to begin a methodical troop pullout as the Iraqi forces gained the strength, training and experience necessary to keep the peace themselves.  Looks like that point has been reached, at least in some parts of the country.

However, a Gallup poll taken before Christmas starkly illustrates just the opposite has happened.  In October and again in December, Gallup ask the following questions.

1.  ". . . please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of . . . the Democratic Party."

In October, Favorable outdid Unfavorable by 52%-36%.  That's a 16-point margin.

In December, Favorable edged Unfavorable by only 1, 46%-45%.  That's quite a downward turn.

2.  ". . . please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of . . . the Republican Party."

In October, Republicans were viewed unfavorably by a 10-point margin, 50%-40%.

By December, the unfavorable margin had dwindled to only 3 points, 48%-45%.

At first glance, Americans still maintain a slightly favorable view of the Democrats and a slightly unfavorable view of Republicans.  However, if the pattern of the last two months holds, that will soon change.  I think there is a moral to this story.  Making too much of too many negatives aimed at only one party belies a bias in the media and a lack of substantive solutions in the other party.  Americans are beginning to see combined efforts of the Democrats and the mainstream media as politically motivated propaganda, and they are turning on it.

For My Democratic Friends:

"Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low-stress, non-addictive, gender-neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasion and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2006, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make America great.  (Not to imply that America is necessarily greater than any other country nor the only America in the Western Hemisphere.)  And without regard to the race, creed, color, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual preference of the wishee.

By accepting these greetings you are accepting these terms.  This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal.  It is freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting.  It implies no promise by the wisher to actually implement any of the wishes for herself or himself or others, and is void where prohibited by law and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher.  This wish is warranted to perform as expected within the usual application of good tidings for a period of one year or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first, and warranty is limited to replacement of this wish or issuance of a new wish at the sole discretion of the wisher."

For My Republican Friends:

Here's wishing all of you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

House District 8:  Since 1994, GOP incumbent John Hostettler has consistently won this seat by small margins.  As a result, he is consistently a target for Democrats.  This time, Hostettler faces a legitimate, well-funded challenge from Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth.  Even though this will be a nail-biter, The Blogging Caesar will side with the one whose proven he can win the close ones and call this race a weak GOP hold.

House District 9:  Michael Sodrel upset incumbent Baron Hill in 2004, winning with only 49.4% of the vote.  Naturally, given that outcome, this race promises to be a very difficult task for the freshman GOPer.  Considering that dethroned Rep. Baron Hill has set his sights on taking back the seat he lost to Sodrel, this race figures to be ripe for the Democrats.  Indeed, the rubber match between these two - Bill beat Sodrel 51%-46% in 2002 - is the hardest race yet for The Blogging Caesar.  One small factor tilts the race, in my opinion, toward the incumbent.  As a congressman, Hill voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment.  That vote played a role in getting Sodrel over the top in 2004.  The Blogging Caesar sees Sodrel using that issue in addition to his incumbency in 2006 to eek out an extremely close win.  Is there a word for "much less than weak?"  Let's call it a feeble GOP hold.

Check out more on Indiana here.

Update:  More on the spying hullabaloo from New England Republican here and here.

Hat tip:  Lorie.

Update:  As I re-read this post, it hit me once again just how amazing the story of Jesus is.  What a wonderful testimony to the love of God that in His infinite, unblemished holiness, He would clothe Himself in human flesh and die a horrible death to rescue those whose sin is utterly repulsive and detestable to Him.  Truly, there can be no greater love.

Dear Jesus, may the love you have shown me in my sin cause me to be more loving to those around me.  And may the gift of eternal salvation you fashioned for me on the cross compel me to share it with others.  Amen.

Clearly one can see, from Hindraker's excellent treatise, that there is no legal issue with the policy.  This explains why Bush has been so candid and confident about the practice and so forceful in taking exception to the ones who leaked this information.  After reading Hindraker's piece, I'm no longer concerned about any lasting, negative impact on President Bush's image.  Instead, it is easy to see how this non-story will serve to further diminish the credibility of the mainstream media in general and The New York Times specifically.

Update:  Oops!  Pardon my ignorance; apparently 1984 took place in Britian.

The Money Race

"The Democratic National Committee raised $5.37 million in November and has approximately $7.3 million cash on hand."

"The Republican National Committee raised $5.95 million in November and has an amazing $31.9 million on hand."

The Money Race - Congressional Edition

"The DCCC raised $2.5 million in November and has roughly $11.2 million in cash on hand."

"The NRCC raised $3.7 million in November and has about $19.5 million in cash on hand."

Update:  More good news.

Fortunately for him, this is a very blue state, and the GOP party in this state has had a rough go of it recently.  As a result, this race is still probably his to lose.  Blagojevich's chances got a real boost when former GOP Governor Jim Edgar declined to challenge him.  Larry Sabato, political science professor at the University of Virginia, bluntly said "Edgar would have defeated Blagojevich".

Stepping in to accept the challenge Edgar refused are several Republicans.  Among them are St. Senator Bill Brady, former primary Senate candidate James Oberweis and St. Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka.  Also slated to run was St. Senator Steve Rauschenberger, however, in an unusual turn of events, he has signed on to run as candidate for Lt. Governor with Ron Gidwtiz, a former head of the Illinois Board of Education.  Tickets such as this normally don't materialize until after the primaries.  We'll have to see if this strategy makes hay with the Republican voters of Illinois.

If this were a less azure state, The Blogging Caesar would be comfortable declaring this race a weak GOP gain.  If this were New Jersey, Blagojevich would be a shoo-in for re-election.  Since it is Illinois, I'll have to rate this a weak DEM hold.

House District 8:  Affluent and white-collar, Illinois CD 8 is a GOP stronghold.  Only "giant missteps," as Sabato calls them, by GOP incumbent Phil Crane enabled Democrat Melissa Bean to score an eyebrow-raising upset here in 2004.  The National Republican Congressional Committee has made taking this perennially GOP seat back into the fold one of their very top priorities.

Bean's support of the Central American Free Trade Act (CAFTA) has prompted organized labor to distance themselves from her.  In fact, GOP challenger David McSweeney was a special guest a recent function hosted by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters.  In the end, however, labor's reaction to Bean will probably have little tangible effect in this sparcely unionized district.  Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar sees this race as a weak GOP gain and believes Bean's victory in 2004 was a fluke.  Either McSweeney or businesswoman Teresa Bartels will beat Bean in the general election.  We'll just have to see who survives the primary.

Senate Race:  Neither Democratic stalwart Dick Durbin nor rising Demcratic party star Barack Obama is up for re-election in 2006.

Check out more on Illinois here.

First, he accepted responsibility for touting incorrect intelligence even while affirming the legitimacy of our actions to remove Saddam from power.

It is true that Saddam Hussein had a history of pursuing and using weapons of mass destruction ... that he systematically concealed those programs ... that many nations believed that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.  But much of the intelligence turned out to be wrong.  And as your President, I am responsible for the decision to go into Iraq. Yet it was right to remove Saddam Hussein from power.  He was given an ultimatum — and he made his choice for war.

He then rebuked those who claim we have created more problems than we are solving by going into Iraq.

If you think the terrorists would become peaceful if only America would stop provoking them, then it might make sense to leave them alone My conviction comes down to this:  We do not create terrorism by fighting the terrorists.  We invite terrorism by ignoring them.

On political ploys to weaken the President, Bush said this.

We will continue to listen to honest criticism, and make every change that will help us complete the mission.  Yet there is a difference between honest critics who recognize what is wrong, and defeatists who refuse to see that anything is right. Defeatism may have its partisan uses, but it is not justified by the facts.  For every scene of destruction in Iraq, there are more scenes of rebuilding and hope.  For every life lost, there are countless more lives reclaimed.  And for every terrorist working to stop freedom in Iraq, there are many more Iraqis and Americans working to defeat them.  My fellow citizens:  Not only can we win the war in Iraq — we are winning the war in Iraq.

I think it is so important for the American people to hear this again and again - regardless of the one-sided, anti-American, fatalistic coverage the War in Iraq receives in America's mainstream media, we are winning it!

President Bush also talked about the roadmap for troop reduction and withdrawal in the future.

I will make decisions on troop levels based on the progress we see on the ground and the advice of our military leaders — not based on artificial timetables set by politicians in Washington.  Our forces in Iraq are on the road to victory — and that is the road that will take them home.

Some may be thinking that Bush's optimism is fabricated and motivated solely by political designs.  Truly, many will never be convinced that we did the right thing by taking out Saddam.  Sadly, some will view each and every future car bomb or IED as irrefutable evidence of our inability to win and our inevitable defeat in Iraq.  To skeptics like this, the President had this to say.

I also want to speak to those of you who did not support my decision to send troops to Iraq:  I have heard your disagreement, and I know how deeply it is felt. Yet now there are only two options before our country — victory or defeat.  And the need for victory is larger than any president or political party, because the security of our people is in the balance.  I do not expect you to support everything I do, but tonight I have a request:  Do not give in to despair, and do not give up on this fight for freedom.

I hope my fellow Americans who oppose the war will heed our President's call.  The optimism for our country's ability to win in Iraq is well-founded - not only because of the skill and dedication our military forces and the resolve of our President, but, even more importantly at this stage of the struggle, because of the will of the Iraqi people themselves.  President Bush sited one Iraqi man's sentiments that encapsulates the reason for hope for a victorious end in Iraq.

[A] voter was asked, "Are you Sunni or Shia?"  He responded, "I am Iraqi."

True hope for Iraq, and true optimism.  That's what President Bush's speech was about.  That's what America needed to hear.

Hat tip to Viking Pundit who also has a mini-roundup of other bloggers' thoughts on the speech.

Senate and House Races:  Neither GOP Senator is up for re-election in 2006, and both House seats here will remain securely in GOP hands.

Check out more on Idaho here.

I know problems still exist and the struggle is far from over.  However, today's resoundingly successful election sends a clear message that we (our forces, our policy, and the vast majority of the Iraqi people) are winning over there and they (the insurgents, Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein and his few remaining supporters, and those who wish for our President's political doom) are losing.  Need more encouragement?  Check out this from a U.S. Army Military Police member quoted in the article to which I linked above...

For the elections, we don't see much of what's going on, as it is the Iraqi army and police forces that are at the polls.  So for us, we are just at our FOBs [forward operating bases] watching and waiting.  (Emphasis added)

Let the full weight of that statement sink in.  The situation in Iraq has progressed so much that the security provided at polling places was made up of Iraqi forces!  Truly this is a wonderful day in the neighborhood.  The Arab neighborhood that is.  And with our (our forces, our policy, and the vast majority of the Iraqi people) continued diligence, there will be many more wonderful days to come.  It kind of looks like Howard Dean is just plain wrong.

Governor's Race:  Linda Lingle is an oxymoron.  She is a GOP incumbent governor in a very Democratic state whose Democratic Party is having trouble finding someone to challenge her.  Hawaii's two aging senators are part of the reason as prominent Democrats here seem to be jockeying for the chance to succeed them.  Lingle's victory in 2002 was an amazing feat considering Hawaii solid Democratic ideological makeup.  Her victory, and the declining margin of victory for recent Democrat presidential candidates, indicate the Democrats' hold on Hawaii may be weakening somewhat.  (Don't expect the state to go for a GOP presidential candidate in the near future, however.)

Gov. Lingle's job approval is high at +27% net.  Like Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Lingle's GOP affiliation will not keep her from returning to her Democratic state's Executive Mansion.  Unlike Gov. Rell, Lingle will not enjoy a landslide victory.  Instead, she'll have to work to win re-election.  Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar rates this race as a weak GOP hold.

House Races:  Hawaii is still very blue; both of the two House seats will remain in Democrat hands.

Check out more on Hawaii here.

Lt. Governor Mark Taylor and Secretary of State Cathy Cox both weathered the rising GOP tide in 2002 and came out victorious in the midst of it.  Either will be strong contenders for in the general election, though their primary battle will probably determine just how strong.  As always, a bitter primary will weaken the winner's effectiveness against Perdue and could move this from comfortable GOP territory to landslide land.  For now, I'll call this a strong GOP hold - rather than an overwhelming GOP hold.  This race could tighten depending on the prevailing partisan winds come election day, but for now, I don't see Mr. Perdue having to sweat this one too much.

Georgia House Districts:  In state after state over the last 4 years or so, redistricting has become big news.  Georgia is no exception.  In fact, redistricting has quite possibly had more impact in Georgia than in any other state.  In 2002, Democrats were able to redraw Georgia's congressional district map in such a way as to secure Georgia's two new seats in the House for their party.  In 2004, the Democrats reaped further benefits from the new map by winning CD 12 in a race which essentially undid an upset win by GOP Rep. Max Burns two years earlier.

This go 'round, the tables have turned.  The GOP has had their opportunity to redraw Georgia's CD map, and the outcome has resulted in much more clearly defined districts, geographically speaking, and worries for two Democrat incumbent representatives.

House District 8:  This race finds an incumbent running in a different district than the one in which he was first elected.  Rep. Jim Marshall won his seat in 2004 in district 3.  The new map has drawn him into district 8.  As a result, he finds himself in much less friendly territory.  Significantly, the African-American population is down from 37% to 30%, which translates into at least a 5-point loss in support right from the start.

Compounding the problem is the unopposed GOP candidate Mac Collins.  Collins is a former legislator himself who served 6 terms in Congress before withdrawing to run for the Senate in 2004.  I can't imagine a more formidable opponent to face the quasi-incumbent Democrat.  Due to the changes in Marshall's constituency and to the fact that Collins won six elections without a loss in this general area of Georgia, The Blogging Caesar is declaring Georgia CD 8 to be the first district I've looked at to change hands.  While not a for sure thing in the least, I'm calling this a weak GOP gain for the time being.

Update:  Well, I'm having second thoughts at this stage (March 11, 2006) about this race.  The better call would have been to predict either GA-8 or GA-12 going to the GOP but not both.  So this race also becomes the first one to have The Blogging Caesar change the initial call.  I now rate this a weak DEM hold.

House District 12:  Max Burns won this seat in a mild upset in 2002.  As I previously stated, the Democrats took the seat from him two years later.  Incumbent John Barrow faces a re-match with his 2004 foe, but in a less Democratic district this time.  Barrow's district was redrawn to favor the GOP, and Burns' entry into the race portends a strong GOP showing here in 2006.  Even as it was drawn in 2004, Barrow's victory was narrow (52%-48%), and the redder version next year causes The Blogging Caesar to call another Georgia district for the GOP, albeit weakly.

Check out more on Georgia here.

Conventional wisdom says that Harris is much too controversial to beat even the vulnerable Nelson in a statewide contest.  The Blogging Caesar is not completely convinced.  I'm still calling this one a weak DEM hold, but don't turn this race off totally.  Once the election gets into full swing, those that need to will begin to see Harris as their gal.  I predict this race will be much closer than one might expect.  Here's some food for thought that might buttress my hunch on this one.

Few thought Harris could win when she ran for state Senate in 1994, but she did, beating a popular Republican in the primary and a Democratic incumbent in the general election.  Then many said she had no chance when she challenged Republican incumbent Secretary of State Sandra Mortham in 1998.  Harris won.  Both races she used relentless and focused attacks to win and in each [Campaign Consultant Adam] Goodman was with her. "I've seen it too many times," said Richard Pinsky, a Republican strategist. "When this horse goes around the track it does what it needs to do to win, and she wins.  She has a proven track record and she has the same jockey." Money can also do a lot to change images and she's expected to be able to raise a lot.  She has raised money for many Republicans around the country and can cash in on the IOUs, said Tom Slade, a former Republican Party of Florida chairman. "She can raise as much money as she wants to spend. It's as simple as that," he said.

Read the whole thing; there's more good stuff in that article.

In order to cover all the bases, I must mention Rep. Mark Foley.  If Harris were to be challenged by Foley, she would probably win the primary.  But if he somehow came out on top, Nelson would be in serious trouble.  I think Foley would unseat the incumbent.  However, I don't expect at this time that Harris will be opposed by anyone in the GOP.

Governor's Race:  Jeb Bush's two terms in the Florida Executive Mansion have been anything but dull.  He oversaw a contentious presidential election in 2000 in which his state held the fortune of his brother's bid for the White House in limbo for weeks.  Two years later, he overcame stiff opposition to his re-election by an amazingly comfortable margin considering the emphasis the Democrats placed on defeating him in 2002.  Term-limited in 2006, Jeb leaves behind one of the most highly anticipated gubernatorial races in the country.  Once again, the Democrats see Florida as an excellent opportunity to capture a major governorship.

It should be an exciting race indeed as highly-qualified candidates are in contention for both major party nominations.  On the GOP side, Attorney General Charlie Crist is battling State Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher for a chance to meet probable Democrat nominee, U.S. Rep Jim Davis.  State Sen. Rod Smith is challenging Davis and Lt. Governor Toni Jennings may makes some waves in the GOP primary, but neither is expected to emerge as a solid contender.

Crist vs. Gallagher is shaping up to be an enormous primary race.  The Blogging Caesar believes the GOP will eventually hold this governorship, but a possible bloodfest between them could tip the general election in Davis' favor.  As of now, I'm giving Crist the nod to win both the GOP primary in September and the Statehouse in November.  That said, this race is far, far, far from decided.

House District 22:  Clay Shaw has won 12 elections in this moderately GOP-leaning district.  In 2000, he won by only 1000 votes.  Last time, he won with 62% of the vote.  Next year, he faces a strong opponent in State Sen. Ron Klein.  Adding to the uncertainty of this race is Shaw's possible retirement at the end of this term.  A Democratic pick-up would not be much of a stretch here whether or not Shaw calls it quits.  For now, The Blogging Caesar will keep with the pattern of predicting weak holds for the incumbent party.  If Shaw does retire, I might consider, depending on his GOP successor, changing my preliminary projection.

Check out more on Florida here.

By the way, I'm busy working on Florida's preview now.  It should be up today or early tomorrow.

Token GOP opposition will be provided by perpetual candidate and airline pilot, Mike Protack and recent nominee for Lt. Governor, Jim Ursomarso.  Interesting that neither of the two challengers to Carper seems to have ever actually won an election.  They won't win this time, either. Another easy pick for The Blogging Caesar:  Strong DEM Hold.

Governor and House Races:  Democrat Gov. Ruth Ann Minner is not up for re-election in 2006, and GOP Rep. Mike Castle will win an 8th term easily.

Check out more on Delaware here.