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  Politics and Elections
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Even for Huckabee, no success without money
Back in October, when Mike Huckabee was just beginning his remarkable rise in Iowa, I issued an edict decreeing that he would finish no worse than second there and get at least 25% of the vote.  At that time, he was barely in third place in the polls with an average of slighly less than 14% support.  Since then, Huckabee has moved into an effectual tie with Mitt Romney for the lead with 26% support.

Even more noteworthy is the fact that Huck's gains have been realized without a lot of money.  He is contesting to win the Iowa Caucuses outright with barely a whisper of a campaign presence on the ground.  How he fares in Iowa, of course, remains to be seen, but without money and organization, he faces a difficult task capitalizing on his polling numbers and turning them into actual votes on January 5.  I do believe Huckabee can pull it off and ride the momentum into subsequent primaries.  He can be a force for the nominatioin, a true contender.  However, eventually, he must compete with the big guys in fundraising.

I wrote last month that his lack of money right now doesn't doom his candidacy, and I stand by that assertion.  It is, though, an assertion that hinges on one pivotal and crucial development.  He must be able to translate increased support in the polls into much increased campaign contributions.  Most political pundits still see Huckabee as just a spoiler, as the one who will weaken Romney, Thompson, and McCain and pave the way for Giuliani to stroll to the nomination.  Almost invariably, the main reason for such sentiment is the diminutive size of Huck's campaign wallet.

Unless he is able to change that current circumstance, indeed, he will likely be banished to that role, and his candidacy will not be sustainable.  We've seen a recent uptick in his fundraising, but nothing like what we need to see before Iowa.  One candidate has done a tremendous job raising money.  Ron Paul looks like he will raise more in the fourth quarter than any other candidate.  What a waste!  In the previously mentioned post, I made the point that much of the GOP money had not yet been given which explains the financial deficit GOP candidates are facing when compared to the Democrats.  I did not see, however, the growing Ron Paul sink hole that would devour so much of that latent GOP money.  Instead, I believed it would go in large part to Huckabee.  I can only hope that there is enough still left ungiven to make the Huckabee campaign viable for the long run.  He's doing well in Iowa right now.  But without money, and tons of it, his shot at the nomination - and even more so the presidency - will be short-lived.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:35am 12/04/07 ::
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