The first full tallies are displayed in the projection banner near the top of the page.  As you can see, I am currently predicting a bit of a red surge, but certainly not a tidal wave.  Just eight net House seats are projected to swing to the GOP, far less than the 40 needed to regain control.  In the Senate, Election Projection shows a small GOP gain of 2 seats.  As for the statehouse races, the GOP is projected to pickup one additional net seat gain on the heels of winning Virginia and New Jersey in 2009.  If that projection comes true, Republicans and Democrats will hold 25 governorships apiece.

This year, Election Projection is also providing a helpful 2010 Election Resources section with ranked lists of vulnerable seats, a 2010 election year calendar with all filing deadlines, primary dates, and runoffs, up-to-date lists of all open seats and, beginning after the state previews are done, daily poll reports.  You'll find links to these and other features on the right side of the projection banner above.

I look forward to sharing with you a very exciting year ahead. After tracking two blue wave elections over the last four years, maybe this time EP's maps will be colored a bit more red.  As we get this thing started, let me also offer everyone best wishes for a prosperous and blessed New Year.



Filed under:  2010 Elections  Website administration 

Senate:  Crapo, Idaho's new senior senator, has an enviable position few senators enjoy.  When he first won election to the Senate back in 1998, his victory was essentially a lifetime appointment.  Barring a Craig-like mishap, Crapo will be on Capitol Hill until he decides to give it up.  Already deputy whip, the hard working Crapo may be in line for more powerful party leadership positions in the future.  Next year's race has yet to firm up, but the only candidate currently in on the Democratic side is a 2004 presidential candidate from the Federalist Party.  I'll go ahead and state the obvious.  This race is a slam dunk Solid GOP Hold.

Governor:  Sometimes in highly-partisan states, the Governor's Mansion is occupied by a member of the minority party. We've seen that several times over the last decade in such liberal states as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as well as conservative ones like Wyoming and Kansas.  Since 1990, that hasn't been the case in Idaho where the last four cycles have produced Republican governors.  Butch Otter is the current beneficiary of Idaho's conservative electorate, and his chances of losing next year are remote. Given that he won an open seat race against a strong Democratic challenger in a blue wave election in 2006, his re-election should be much easier.  Like Crapo in the Senate, Otter will win next year in a Solid GOP Hold.

House District 1:  Freshman Bill Sali lost this seat in 2008 to erratic behavior, ineffectiveness in the House, a blue wave and Democrat Walt Minnick.  His departure was noteworthy in this district which favored John McCain last year by over 20 points.  Now the challenge lies with Minnick to duplicate his win without wind at his back.  Currently, all four pundits I use for House projections figure this race to be a tossup - not a good place for a freshman congressman in a less-than-receptive district eleven months away from Election Day.  Once the GOP settles on a candidate, I see this race moving to the red column.  A large Republican victory is not out of the questions here, but I'll start it off as a Weak GOP Gain.

You can find more information on the Idaho state page.

Next stop:  Illinois



Filed under:  Idaho  ID Senate  ID House  ID Governor 

• Senate:  9 total, 6 Republicans, 3 Democrats
• House:  22 total, 12 Republicans, 10 Democrats
• Governors:  20 total, 10 Republicans, 10 Democrats

Senate:   Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye, who will turn 216 years old next year, is seeking his 34 term in the Senate.  Of course, that's an exaggeration - but only a small one!  Truthfully, the octogenarian seeks just his 9 ninth term in 2010.  First elected to the upper chamber in 1963, Inouye is the second longest serving senator in Washington.  Indications are he's indeed in the race again.  Unless that changes, his re-election is sure.  Republican Governor Linda Lingle is barred from seeking a third term in the Governor's Mansion, and she is considering a challenge for Inouye's seat.  The only way the GOP has a chance of getting it would be for him to retire and her to run.  Even then, it would be no better than even money.  As it stands, however, this is a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:   Linda Lingle, a Republican in a sea of Democrats, cannot run for a third term as governor.  Her exit leaves but a small chance that the GOP will keep this governorship.  What chance Republicans do have is probably maximized by Lt. Governor Duke Aiona's decision to run.  On the other hand, the impact of Lingle's popularity - even if Aiona can capitalize on it - will be lessened by the positive voter impressions of U.S. Representative Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, two formidable Democratic contenders.  I'd like to say the GOP will stay in power in Hawaii statehouse, but I just don't see it.  To call it a Mod DEM Gain might be underestimating the Democratic victory.

As you might imagine given the stats I reported above, neither of Hawaii's two congressional districts will be competitive next year.

Please check out the Hawaii state page for more information.

Next stop: Idaho



Filed under:  Hawaii  HI Senate  HI Governor 

Senate:  In 2004, Johnny Isakson, a man you might call a "politician's politician" for his propensity to compromise to get things done, breezed to election after Democrat-turned-Democratic-antagonist Zell Miller decided to retire.  Isakson's willingness to compromise hasn't always sat well with conservatives.  Among the legislation he had a hand in are the No Child Left Behind education bill, immigration reform and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  That's not a very strong conservative resume.  Still, he scores high with conservative special interest groups and has a lifetime 88.4 rating from the American Conservative Union as of the end of 2008.  His re-election bid will not be a sure thing, but the climate and the man should work together for a comfortable, albeit possibly close, victory.  It's a Mod GOP Hold to start, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it move to the strong category by Election Day.

Governor:  Eight years ago, in the Georgia GOP tidal wave election of 2002, Sonny Perdue beat incumbent Roy Barnes in perhaps the most unexpected upset of the year.  Four years later, the popular governor won re-election with almost 58% of the vote.  This year, term-limits bar him from another run and leave the race to succeed him wide-open.  Among the Democratic hopefuls is none other than Roy Barnes, himself.  Polls give him a decided advantage over the rest of the Democratic field.  On the GOP side, John Oxendine, Georgia's Insurance Commissioner, leads.  However, with Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel and U.S. Representative Nathan Deal running as well, this could be one of the more exciting primary races of the cycle.  Given all these headliners, it's impossible to get a good feel for who will eventually win in November.  I'll lean on the political climate and Georgia's recent track record - Obama's 2008 coattails notwithstanding - and call this a Weak GOP Hold for now.

After several cycles with Democrats Jim Marshall and John Barrow listed among vulnerable House members, this year they appear to be relatively safe bets to win another term in Districts 8 and 12, respectively.  In fact, I'm not even tracking Barrow's race this time.

The Georgia state page is where to find all the details.  Don't miss it!

Next stop: Hawaii



Filed under:  Georgia  GA Senate  GA Governor 

Senate:  Mel Martinez, a Cuban-born GOP senator first elected in 2004, decided earlier this year not to run for re-election in 2010.  In August, he decided to end his term early and retire.  George LeMieux was appointed to replace him, but he, too, has decided against running.  Not so for the man who appointed LeMieux.  Governor Charlie Crist has thrown his moderate Republican hat into the race.  Mix that moderate ideology and good amount of early backing from national GOP powers that be with a favorite of the grass roots conservative movement (aka the Tea Partiers) and you have the makings of a lost opportunity.  This seat should stay in GOP hands, but a bruising primary between Crist and former Florida House Speaker and rising GOP star Marco Rubio could give the Democrats a chance to steal this one away.  My hunch is that Crist would have no problem winning the general election if he defeats Rubio in the primary.  Rubio's chances, however, are a bit more dicey, but he could win as well.  Until the primaries are over, a prediction in this race is a bit premature.  But that's never stopped me before!  I'll call it a Weak GOP Hold for now for the simple reason that this rating probably falls just about in the center of what is a broad range of possible outcomes.

Governor:  Since Crist seeks a Washington office, his residency in the Governor's Mansion will end.  The vacancy has given cause for a plethora of individuals to jump in the gubernatorial race.  Among the GOP hopefuls, it appears to be a two-man...er...one man - one woman race between State Senator Paula Dockery and former Congressman and failed Senate candidate Bill McCollum.  Polls give McCollum a big edge, though one has to wonder if name recognition may play a part in that.  On the Democratic side, CFO Alex Sink has the inside track to the nomination as things currently stand.  This is another difficult race predict this far out.  The results of the primaries loom large as do the candidates' performances on the post-primary campaign trail.  I'm going to call this a Weak GOP Hold, but, honestly, it is without much conviction.

House District 8:  Alan Grayson is no softly liberal.  Oh, he's a liberal for sure, but he's as hard as nails.  He refused to apologize for his now-famous declaration on the House floor during the healthcare debate that Republicans "want you to die quickly."  And this despite the fact that he's a freshman congressman from a GOP-leaning district.  That takes gumption, my friends.  It also puts him in a precarious position heading toward the midterms.  While the GOP has had several first-tier folks decline to run, this race is low-hanging fruit, to be sure, and the eventual GOP nominee should send Grayson back to defending whistleblowers and filing lawsuits against big bad government contractors.  This race is one of the most vulnerable.  It should end up a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 24:  Freshman Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas bucked the norm by winning her first term in a Republican district by a landslide.  GOP incumbent Republican Tom Feeney's corruption problems and the big blue wave in 2008 provided Kosmas with an easy path to Washington.  Since arriving, she has shown centrists tendencies and is a member of the New Democrat Coalition.  These facts give her a good shot at not being a common one-term wave baby.  She will be tested, given the conservative bent of her constituency.  Against a big red wave, she may not get that second term.  For now, though, I see her hanging on in a Weak DEM Hold.

Another possibly competitive race in Florida which Election Projection will be tracking is in district 12, an open GOP seat vacated by Adam Putnam.  He declined to seek re-election in favor of a bid to become Florida's Commissioner of Agriculture.

Please check out the Florida state page for lots more cool stuff on the Sunshine State.

Next stop:  Georgia



Filed under:  Florida  FL Senate  FL House  FL Governor