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| Saturday, December 12, 2009 |
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| Fifty state tour - Idaho preview |
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You don't get much more conservative than Idaho, a state in which Mormons boast a 25% share of the population. George W. Bush carried the state twice by more than 35 points, and
John McCain won here last year by 25. Mike Crapo, the state's first Mormon senator, probably expends more effort raising funds for his GOP colleagues' re-election bids than on
his own race. And even a controversy like the toe-tapping scandal which led to political end-of-life for former GOP Senator Larry Craig could derail Republican dominance in Idaho
statewide elections.
Senate: Crapo, Idaho's new senior senator, has an enviable position few senators enjoy. When he first won election to the Senate back in 1998, his victory
was essentially a lifetime appointment. Barring a Craig-like mishap, Crapo will be on Capitol Hill until he decides to give it up. Already deputy whip, the hard working Crapo
may be in line for more powerful party leadership positions in the future. Next year's race has yet to firm up, but the only candidate currently in on the Democratic side is a 2004
presidential candidate from the Federalist Party. I'll go ahead and state the obvious. This race is a slam dunk Solid GOP Hold.
Governor: Sometimes in highly-partisan states, the Governor's Mansion is occupied by a member of the minority party. We've seen that several times over the last
decade in such liberal states as Massachusetts and Rhode Island as well as conservative ones like Wyoming and Kansas. Since 1990, that hasn't been the case in Idaho where
the last four cycles have produced Republican governors. Butch Otter is the current beneficiary of Idaho's conservative electorate, and his chances of losing next year are remote.
Given that he won an open seat race against a strong Democratic challenger in a blue wave election in 2006, his re-election should be much easier. Like Crapo in the Senate,
Otter will win next year in a Solid GOP Hold.
House District 1: Freshman Bill Sali lost this seat in 2008 to erratic behavior, ineffectiveness in the House, a blue wave and Democrat Walt Minnick. His
departure was noteworthy in this district which favored John McCain last year by over 20 points. Now the challenge lies with Minnick to duplicate his win without wind at his
back. Currently, all four pundits I use for House projections figure this race to be a tossup - not a good place for a freshman congressman in a less-than-receptive district eleven
months away from Election Day. Once the GOP settles on a candidate, I see this race moving to the red column. A large Republican victory is not out of the questions here,
but I'll start it off as a Weak GOP Gain.
You can find more information on the Idaho state page.
Next stop: Illinois
Filed under:
Idaho
ID Senate
ID House
ID Governor
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:08pm 12/12/09::
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