While he is a favorite target of conservatives like me, Chafee's presence in the Senate is nevertheless welcome.  Many do not view things as I do, however, and conservatives in Rhode Island are staging a revolt this year in the GOP primary.  Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey has been chosen to carry the conservative mantle, and the threat he presents to the incumbent is both real and potentially damaging to the GOP's national fortunes.

If Laffey wins, the GOP loses this seat, period.  If Chafee pulls out a victory, The Blogging Caesar believes he will prevail in the general election as well.  My hunch is that after all the conservative bluster, Chafee will indeed emerge from the primary to defend his seat in November.  Ironically, a tough primary battle may be just what the doctor ordered in this case, since Laffey will no doubt try to hurt Chafee by pointing to his liberalism.  After all, Rhode Islanders like their senators to be liberal.  Under the assumption that Chafee wins the primary, I'm calling this a weak GOP hold.

Governor's Race:  GOP incumbent Don Carcieri is a lot like his counterpart in neighboring Connecticut, Republican Jodi Rell.  Though his approval numbers are not quite as high as hers - nobody's are - he is still a well-liked GOP governor in an ultra-liberal state.  Even so, unlike Rell, he is not assured re-election.  Rhode Island is just too liberal for any Republican to ever feel safe in a statewide election, and his challenger, Democratic Lt. Governor Charles Fogarty will not be pushover.  That said, The Blogging Caesar doesn't see enough impetus here to oust the first-term GOPer.  It won't be a blowout, though, so I'll rate this race a weak GOP hold.

Check out more on Rhode Island here.

If they decide to take that course, Bob Casey, Jr. will be the beneficiary.  His candidacy introduces some interesting factors into this race whose impact is difficult to predict.  The most intriguing of these is his pro-life stance on abortion.  From moderate conservatives' standpoint, this may make Casey attractive enough to cause them to vote against Santorum, or at least diffuse some of the motivation to vote for him.  On the other hand, liberals will have to decide if they hate Santorum enough to venture out and vote for another pro-life candidate.  This pro-life battle makes this race one of the most entertaining of the 2006 election season.

If the election were held today, Casey would win.  Santorum's deficits to Casey in polls have been astronomical for an incumbent this early in a Senate race.  However, don't think Santorum is destined to be defeated in a rout.  Bad press for Santorum, Casey's well-known family name, and the campaign off-season are major contributors to the incumbent's predicament.  Mark my words, this will be a nail-biter in the end.  Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar is leaning toward the challenger at the moment.  As such, I'm projecting this race as a weak DEM gain - the first Senate seat to switch parties so far in my initial tour of the 50 states.

Governor's Race:  If Democratic Governor Ed Rendell were a cornerback and this were a football game, he'd have no chance against his GOP challenger.  Lynn Swann, the hall-of-fame wide receiver and possessor of 4 Super Bowl rings, has decided to try his skills on the political field.  Polls show Swann's candidacy is connecting with Pennsylvania voters.  His 20-point deficit 5 months ago is now gone, and he is in a statistical dead heat with the incumbent.

While Swann's celebrity will play well initially, the main question in this race boils down to the public's tolerance of both Rendell's incumbency and Swann's inexperience.  The mood toward Rendell's governorship is growing increasingly negative.  The poll showing a statistical tie between the two men also finds 54% of registered voters believing Rendell doesn't deserve re-election.  That may indicate Swann will be able to win his first attempt at elected office.

On the other hand, Rendell will probably be able to paint Swann as ill-equipped to go from the football field and broadcast booth to the Executive Mansion.  We'll have to see how far Swann's celebrity will take him and how much political savvy he brings to the table.  Right now, I think Rendell will pull this one out.  Even though I try to be objective in my projections, I must admit that this pick stems from the sense of pessimism I feel about the GOP's performance in Pennsylvania.  I've been disappointed too often to imagine that the GOP will be able to pull Swann to victory in November.  It will be a close race, and I could change my mind quickly, but for now The Blogging Caesar is calling this race a weak DEM hold.

House District 6:  Larry Sabato calls Jim Gerlach possibly the most endangered GOP incumbent of all in 2006.  In addition to defending an increasingly Democratic district, he must face the same opponent he narrowly defeated last time.  Attorney Lois Murphy is back and raising dough at a break-neck pace.  If Gerlach is still in Congress in 2007, the GOP will have a larger majority than they do now.  The Blogging Caesar believes only a much-improved situation nationally for the GOP will save this seat for him.  Give it to the challenger in a weak DEM gain.

Other Races:  Three other GOP seats must be listed as possible competitive races.  If things go poorly for Republicans, districts 7, 8, and 10 may also join Gerlach's seat on the other side of the aisle.

Check out more on Pennsylvania here.

Mannix defeated former school board member Ron Saxton in 2002.  This year, Saxton must be considered a legitimate possibility, especially since he is fundraising so well.  State Senator Jason Atkinson is also running, but I don't think he will impact the race much.  Right now, I'll give Saxton the edge in the primary.  His strong run in 2002, his cash on hand, and Mannix's lingering $400,000 debt from last time will help win the nomination for the runner-up in the last GOP primary.

In the general election, The Blogging Caesar is sticking with Kulongoski for re-election.  His approval numbers are problematic, and the GOP could pull off a mild upset, but Oregon is blue and getting bluer.  It'll be Kulongoski in a weak DEM hold.

Check out more on Oregon here.

Given Henry's awesome approval numbers, even a well-respected GOP Congressman like Rep. Ernest Istook must be considered a significant underdog at this time.  If Oklahoma weren't so red, I'd rate this race a strong DEM hold.  Since it is, I'll make it a weak DEM hold.  After all, as Larry Sabato says, "in Oklahoma any legitimate GOP candidate must be taken very seriously."

Check out more on Oklahoma here.

Ironically, that fact may prove to work in DeWine's favor.  I'm referring, of course, to Paul Hackett's forced exit from contention.  Hackett, you may recall, is the Iraqi War veteran who nearly unseated Jean Schmidt in 2005 in a heavily Republican district.  With that near-miss under his belt, he set his sights on DeWine.  But with the high-profile, well-funded U.S. Rep Sherrod Brown running against him, the Democratic Party bosses decided to coerce their once-loved poster boy out of the race.  The manner in which his departure came about has irked his supporters and may hurt Brown in the general election.

DeWine is indeed vulnerable, but The Blogging Caesar doesn't see him actually losing.  Hackett's hatchet job notwithstanding, I don't think DeWine was ever on the brink of defeat.  In fact, the GOP in Ohio has seen the bottom and will rebound to some extent by November.  DeWine will be re-elected by a close margin. Verdict:  Weak GOP hold.

Governor's Race:  Back to the woeful Taft and the race to replace him.  It would seem impossible that Ohioans would regard their Governor with such contempt and then elect another candidate from his party.  That, however, is just what current state-wide office holders Ken Blackwell and Jim Petro face.  Blackwell who is Secretary of State holds an advantage over Petro, the Attorney General, in the primary contest.

On the Demcratic side, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland is the favorite.  Polls currently indicate the incumbent party is indeed headed for defeat.  The Blogging Caesar is going to join the flow and predict a Democratic victory.  However, I really do believe the GOP's lot will improve before November.  While Strickland will most likely eventually win by a close margin, I don't consider it a foregone conclusion.  After the primaries, we'll just have to see how these two campaigns develop.

House Districts 6 and 18:  I'm including these two congressional races together because my hunch is they will both go the same way.  Problem is, I don't know which way that will be.

In District 6, we have gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland's marginally conservative district.  It is ripe for the picking for the GOP.  The primaries in this race are but a formality as State Senator Charlie Wilson and State Rep. Chuck Blasdel will win the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively.  Wilson maintains a 3:2 fundraising edge right now.  Flip a coin.

District 18 doesn't feature an open seat, but it does feature a GOPer with ties to Jack Abramoff.  Bob Ney would easily win re-election here were it not for his association with Abramoff.  Since he is connected to the indicted lobbyist, Ney is in for a major struggle to retain his seat.  I recently conducted a poll which asked how many GOP seats would be lost as a result of the Abramoff scandal.  This is probably the most likely to fall into that category, at least in the House.  Working in Ney's favor is a large fundraising advantage.  He leads probable Democratic nominee Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer over 2:1 in that all-important statistic.

So, who will win these to hotly contested races?  If you've read The Blogging Caesar for long, you know I'm loathe to leave races as toss-ups.  In this case, I really do believe the fortunes of the GOP in Ohio in general will be the determining factor in both races.  If the party rebounds, they should win both; if they sink lower, they will most likely lose both.  You might call this predicting a toss-up without actually predicting a toss-up, but my preliminary projections here favor the incumbent party in both cases.  Weak DEM hold in District 6; weak GOP hold in District 18.

Check out more on Ohio here.

Instant Update:  (District 6) Thanks to a tip from a reader, I've learned that Democrat Charlie Wilson will apparently be disqualified from running in the Democratic primary.  If this report holds up, this race changes character immediately.  I'm not going to make any changes to the projections right now, but I certainly will revisit this race the first time I update Ohio after all the previews are done.

Other races:  Neither of the two GOP senators nor Democratic Governor Mike Easley is up for re-election in 2006.  Of the remaining house races here, only Robin Hayes' 8th District might be somewhat competitive.  I will keep an eye on this race as the year progresses.

Check out more on North Carolina here.

Governor's Race:  GOP incumbent George Pataki has taken an amazing nose-dive since New Yorkers rallied around him and Mayor Guiliani in the aftermath of September 11.  It has been George H.W. Bush-like in its severity.  Now, in the face of sure defeat, Pataki has decided to retire.  Not that his stepping down gives the GOP any hope of retaining this seat, however.  Democratic Attorney General Eliot Spitzer will see to that.

An interesting facet of this race is the unlikely candidacy of former Massachusetts Governor William Weld.  His presence will not help matters for the Republicans as it just clutters up the GOP field.  This race is unique to this point in that not only does The Blogging Caesar predict the incumbent party will lose, but it will lose big.  Spitzer will become the next governor of New York in a strong DEM gain.

House District 29:  GOPer Randy Kuhl won this seat by a narrow margin in 2004.  Narrow margins by first-time winners are not uncommon.  Most times a freshman congressman will use the power of incumbency to widen that margin the next time around - unless his first victory resulted from a partisan wave.  In Kuhl's case, he did not benefit from such a wave in 2004 and should be reasonably safe, relatively speaking, in 2006.  Nevertheless, his performance in 2004 was less than stellar, and his potential Navy vet opponent could give him trouble.  For the meantime, though, The Blogging Caesar rates this contest a weak GOP hold.

Check out more on New York here.

Governor's Race:  Bill Richardson is eyeing a greater role than his current position as New Mexico's governor.  Instead of the New Mexico Statehouse, he'd rather take up residence in the White House.  In the meantime, getting re-elected to said statehouse will be an easy task for this former Clinton administration cabinet member.  Unfortunately, neither minister George Bailey nor radiologist J.R. Damron will be able to unseat the incumbent - not by a long shot.  Another easy call, another strong DEM hold.

House District 1:  What the statewide races lack in drama, this race more than compensates for.  Incumbent Heather Wilson, a Republican, is in the political fight of her life in this hispanic district won by John Kerry in 2004.  To add to her troubles, the best candidate possible is lining up opposite her.  Hispanic Attorney General Patricia Madrid will be formidible for sure.

This race is very difficult to call right now.  Many pundits are calling it a tossup, and if I allowed myself to call tossups, I would too.  I don't, however, and so I deliberate.  In the challenger's favor are her hispanic heritage, the district's Democratic lean, her statewide popularity, and her recent fundraising prowess (even though Wilson leads in cash-on-hand to date, Madrid won the fundraising race handily in the fourth quarter last year).

In the incumbent's favor are her willingness to criticize her party's leadership in the House - a good thing in a Democratic district, her own popularity, and her incumbency.  With extreme hesitation, The Blogging Caesar is going to give it to the hispanic home girl by the narrowest of margins.  Call it a weak DEM gain - but don't be surprised to see this one go flippity-flop-floppity-flip all the way to November 7.

Check out more on New Mexico here.

Facing him will be Republican Tom Kean, Jr., the son former GOP Governor Tom Kean, Sr.  The younger Kean represents what some New Jersey Republicans feel is a great red hope for the GOP in a state which has not elected a Republican senator since 1972.  Early indications are that this will be a close race - a poll released in January showed Kean with a double-digit lead.  However, since 37% of those polled were undecided, I don't put much stock in Kean's apparent lead right now.

New Jersey is solidly Democrat, and voters hear often deceive GOP hopefuls with promises of support.  I say that because I've noticed a trend in this state where GOP candidates boast strong numbers in early polls only to see those numbers swing toward the Democrat by Election Day.  To mix metaphors, when all is said and done, the chickens will come home to roost and Senator Menendez will keep his newly-acquired seat in Washington.  Due to the Kean family prominence, though, The Blogging Caesar rates this a weak rather than strong DEM hold.

Check out more on New Jersey here.

Baystater John Kerry's candidacy accelerated this red-to-blue shift.  In the 2004 presidential elections, New Hampshire was the only red state from 2000 to be won by the Democrat.  Accompanying Kerry in the Granite State's winner's circle was gubernatorial candidate John Lynch.  Lynch's victory is note-worthy because of New Hampshire's rare 2-year-terms for governors and their reluctance to reject a first-term executive officer.  Republican Craig Benson was the first freshman governor to fail to gain re-election here in over 8 decades.

The only real chance the GOP had of regaining the statehouse was for Lynch to perform poorly - as his predecessor did.  Instead, Lynch has done very well, at least as judged by his astronomical +42% net job approval.  The Blogging Caesar rates Lynch a shoo-in for re-election.  State Representative Jim Coburn doesn't stand a chance.

Senate and House Races:  New Hampshire's congressional delegation is oddly still completely red.  And it will remain as such with neither GOP senator up for re-election and both GOP congressmen cruising to another term.

Check out more on New Hampshire here.

Second, the monopolistic grip on spin held by the mainstream media is all but gone.  In prior times, negative stories about the GOP and conservatives would inflict maximum damage as a result of a constant, unbalanced barrage of news coverage.  These days, big media still trumpets its unending Democratic party line, but they have lost a tremendous amount of credibility among everyday Americans.  Today people take much of what MSM produces with a grain a salt as though they were listening to a bunch of Democratic propagandists.  Considering the fact that "inside- the-beltway" journalists vote Democrat in roughly the same proportion as African-Americans, they're undoubtedly right.  Moreover, the rise of conservative talk radio and the conservative hemisphere of the blogosphere has provided a consistent source for "the other side of the story."

I'm definitely not taking anything for granted in this year's elections, and I'm in no way predicting another resounding GOP victory.  However, if the Democrats don't make a solid showing in November, it will be an undeniable sign of just how far the party has fallen.  If they can't win in 2006, it might be a long, long time, barring a fundamental ideological change in direction, until they win again.

First, Nevada is by no means a deep red state - they voted basically identically to the nation as a whole in 2004.  Moreover, Nevada sports a split delegation to the U.S. Senate and is certainly not a given to vote red in 2008.  Second, Ensign's approval numbers, while positive, are not especially strong.  By comparison, his Democrat counterpart, Harry Reid, boasts a net +21% mark for the job he's doing.  Third, he faces an unknown quantity on the Democrat side in Jack Carter.  If the name sounds familiar, that's because it is.  Jack's father is James.  As in James Carter.  As in Jimmy Carter.  As in former President Jimmy Carter.  Jack has never run for public office before, but his high profile pedigree gives him a measure of celebrity, the effect of which on the outcome of this race is hard to predict right now.

I feel pretty confident Ensign will prevail.  However, due to the factors I've mentioned above, my confidence level will only allow me to rate this race a weak GOP hold.

Governor's Race:  An interesting intra-party duel is unfolding in this race.  Term-limited GOP incumbent Kenny Guinn and presumed GOP nominee, U.S. Rep Jim Gibbons are, um, let's say not bosom buddies.  In fact, Gibbon's decision to run for Governor incited Guinn to push Lt. Governor Lorraine Hunt to consider running.  Hunt has decided she will do just that.  Gibbons should win the nomination, and he should win the governorship in November as well.  However, a dirty primary and party infighting - should they occur - may give the Democrats all they opportunity they need in this marginally red state to capture the Statehouse.

Running for the Democratic nomination are current State Senator Dina Titus and Henderson Nevada Mayor Jim Gibson.  Right now, the money's on Titus for the party spot.  A Gibbons/Titus matchup will be entertaining with Gibbons the early favorite and Titus' chances hinging on how battered Gibbons is coming out of the primary.  The Blogging Caesar will stick with Gibbons and call this a weak GOP hold as well.

Check out more on Nevada here.

I am calling this race for Nelson at the moment, but given Nebraska's conservative nature, a GOP victory is not impossible.  If that happens, Nebraska State GOP Chairman David Kramer, former Nebraska Attorney General Donald Stenberg, or Peter Ricketts, former COO of Ameritrade will be the next senator here.  Those three comprise the field seeking the GOP nomination.  I'm not sure who has the edge right now, but I get the feeling Ricketts candidacy may be picking up steam.  At any rate, until something changes - if it does - The Blogging Caesar will keep this race in the weak DEM hold column.

Governor's Race:  Early last year, President Bush came knocking and Mike Johanns answered the door.  His departure elevated Lt. Governor Dave Heineman to the governorship.  After doing an admirable job since then and running as a quasi-incumbent, Heineman could be expected to cruise to election in his own right in November.  However, he is being challenged a virtual Founding Father in Nebraska - former head football coach Tom Osborne.  Larry Sabato has a great rundown of this race at his website.  Sabato writes...

The Republican Party will decide the next governor in this heavily GOP state.  Governor Mike Johanns left office early to become President Bush's new Agriculture Secretary, and Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman succeeded Johanns. The Crystal Ball just returned from a trip to Nebraska, on the very day that GOP Congressman Tom Osborne, the famous former U of N football coach, announced that he had decided to challenge Heineman in the Republican primary.  While in the Cornhusker state, we were able to survey a variety of politically knowledgeable people. Almost all expect Osborne to win the primary easily, and yet...every single one said Heineman was a competent, fairly impressive governor, who is doing an energetic job.  As such, some wondered whether the much older Osborne would impress people on the campaign trail and in the debates. The Crystal Ball believes that there is some chance--though less than 50 percent--that Heineman will upset Osborne.  Usually, voters must have a strong reason to oust an incumbent, even one who has not been elected to the office.  But, these are not the usual circumstances.  We actually heard Heineman supporters, many of whom are concentrated in the Nebraska business community, suggest that Heineman should step down and run for lieutenant governor for a term under Osborne, and then, after Osborne retires, Heineman could seek a full term as governor.  Indeed, Osborne has strongly hinted that he would probably serve only one four-year term. Of course, he could also change his mind, and Heineman--who has worked his entire life to get to the governor's office--could be in servitude for a seemingly eternal period. Even though Nebraska can already be safely put in the Republican column (publishing executive David Hahn is the only Democrat to have declared his candidacy), this primary will be one of the most fascinating in the country.  This is an odd situation with few precedents anywhere, but football really matters in Nebraska (as it does in Texas).

No matter who emerges victorious from this primary, this race is a strong GOP hold.

Check out more on Nebraska here.

Consequently, I did not get the preview for Nebraska up.  Conner said he had a wonderful b-day, so I hope everyone will be patient with me.  I'll try to get it posted tomorrow.