The Senate projected tally now stands at 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 2 Independents, a gain of 7 seats for the GOP.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  Senate  IL Senate 

Some of the hightlights:  With retirements coming in two of Arkansas' congressional districts since my last update, AR CD-1 and CD-2 have jumped up to 5th and 4th, respectively, on the list.  Previously, Vic Snyder's seat in district 2 was at 25th while Marion Berry's district 1 seat was not listed among the top 30 most vulnerable.  Steve Driehaus in OH CD-1 saw his chances at re-election dwindle.  He moves up 11 from 17th to 6th.  As expected with the trend in pundit ratings changes, the biggest movers down the list were Republicans.  Joseph Cao moved from second to 8th.  Mark Steven Kirk's open seat, IL CD-10, dropped 12 to 19th.  Jim Gerlach in PA CD-6 dropped another 7 spots to 30th.  Since deciding to forego a statewide run, his seat has dropped 21 places.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House 

I'll be posting more on these changes with updates to the House vulnerability rankings later on this evening.  The updated GOP haul in the House increases to 18 with the changes, bringing the House projection here at Election Projection to 239 Democrats and 196 Republicans.



Filed under:  Ratings changes  House  New Hampshire  NH House 

Charlie Cook, whose rating of toss-up I deemed 'strange,' wrote me an email suggesting I take a second look at the race.  He went on to inform me that an African-American state senator, Ed Murray, is eyeing a run as an independent.  While there is no way Cao could take on a Democrat one-on-one here and win, he would have a decent chance of holding off two candidates splitting the opposition vote.  It is entirely possible a three-man race might end up something like 35%-33%-32%, and Cao could be the one at 35.

Since my House projections are based on numerical interpretations of pundit ratings - which have not changed since my preview - Election Projection's rating of the race will not change in view of this update.  It remains a prime Democratic pick-up.

As an aside, I would like to take this opportunity in appreciation for Mr. Cook's multiple emails to highlight his indespensable website.  I use it often to get updates on all the races and insightful commentary on the state of the coming election.  You should too.



Filed under:  House  Louisiana  LA House 

Governor:  Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is term-limited this year.  But after nearly two terms in office, her approval numbers are in the 30's, making re-election, if she were free to run again, a difficult task.  Combine those ratings with economic conditions suited for cultivating voter unrest, and the folks in Michigan might be looking for a Republican alternative for governor in November.  And there happens to be a couple of strong candidates running for the GOP nomination in nine-term Congressman Peter Hoekstra and Attorney General Mike Cox.  On the Democratic side, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, House Speaker Andy Dillon and former State Treasurer Bob Bowman will duke it out in Michigan's August primary.  Given the economics in the state, the GOP holds an advantage in the race despite Michigan's Democratic lean (a Republican has not won Michigan's electoral votes since 1988) .  Early polling also points to a GOP victory with Republicans polling better than Democrats in almost every test between major primary contestants.  At least for the time being, Election Projection is projecting the statehouse to be a Weak GOP Gain.

House District 7:  Two year ago, Democrat Mark Shauer barely won this Republican-leaning district, aided by John McCain's late-stage Michigan pull out.  The GOP incumbent he defeated, Tim Walberg is back to try to regain the seat he lost.  With prospects of a GOP wave in November appearing bright, this should be a ripe takeover opportunity.  Indeed, the preliminary projection here is Weak GOP Gain.  However, Walberg faces a strong challenge in the primary from Brian Rooney, Iraqi war veteran and brother of Tom Rooney, GOP congressman from Florida.  If a damaging primary slugfest leaves the GOP nominee battered, Shuaer could grab another term with another close victory.

For more information on the Wolverine State, please see the Michigan state page

Next stop:  Minnesota



Filed under:  Michigan  MI House  MI Governor 

On the governors list, two Democratic governorships saw significant jumps in their vulnerability.  Polls show Ohio incumbent Ted Strickland is facing serious problems from John Kasich's challenge.  He moves up four spots from 15th to 11th.  Iowa's Chet Culver also has some rough polling troubles, climbing three from 18th to 15th.  On the bright side for Democrats, Colorado looks less likely to switch now.  That race falls to 16th, down 3.  Illinois makes the list this time after a difficult primary test for incumbent Pat Quinn, debuting at number 19.  The open statehouse in Georgia drops off this latest edition.

I am waiting on Larry Sabato to published his updated House race ratings before redoing the House list.  I expect his new ratings out any day now.



Filed under:  Senate  House  Governors 

Governor:  Deval Patrick, Massachusetts' first African-American governor, has been struggling to gain the approval of his constituents.  Polls show him under 40% approval, and he faces strong challenges to his re-election bid from two different sources.  First, Republicans, who have shown the ability in Mitt Romney and William Weld to win the statehouse here over the last two decades despite Massachusetts' overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning electorate, got the candidate they wanted in Charlie Baker (though he'll have to defeat Christy Mihos, a 2006 independent gubernatorial candidate, to secure the nomination).  Second, Cahill's decision to skip the Democratic primary path and run as an independent makes this a race in which any of the three men could win.  Most rate the contest a toss-up with a slight DEM lean.  That's my sentiments at this point, so I'm rating Patrick a Weak DEM Hold.

House:  While none of Massachusetts House districts appears competitive right now, I do think a note of explanation in the wake of Brown's victory is in order.  Republicans are pointing to the fact that Brown carried 6 of 9 districts in the state as evidence that the GOP could make a run at several of them in November.  That optimism ignores the special circumstances surrounding Brown remarkable and rapid rise to victory.  First, he sought an open seat against a poor Democratic candidate rather than a facing a strong incumbent as would be the case for GOP congressional candidates, save perhaps the nominee in district 10 where a soon-to-come retirement announcement from William Delahunt may be on the horizon.  Second, while there is indeed a strong GOP wind blowing across the nation, the run-up to Massachusetts' special election on January 19th witnessed a singular and hard-to-duplicate rush of momentum that carried Brown to victory.  That type of perfect storm will most likely not provide an encore in the state on Election Day in November.  Nevertheless, I will be watching the Bay State for signs of competitive House races shaping up - something I haven't done in previous election cycles.

Get the rest of the scoop on the Massachusetts state page.

Next stop: Michigan



Filed under:  Massachusetts  MA Governor  MA House 

Senate:  Barbara Mikulski is the longest-serving senator among the upper chamber's 17 women.  Her re-election this year is practically certain.  Since winning the seat in 1986 by a 22-point margin, Mikulski's percentage of the vote in three subsequent elections was 71, 71 and 65.  After winning a fifth term in November, Mikulski will become the longest serving woman in Senate history.  Attorney Jim Rutledge and County Commissioner Eric Wargotz are vying to become the token GOP nominee.  This race is a no-brainer, a Solid DEM Hold.

Governor:  Martin O'Malley won the 2006 governor's race with 53% of the vote, ousting one-term Republican Bob Ehrlich.  O'Malley benefited from a Democratic mood that year just as Ehrlich had benefited by a Republican mood four years earlier.  This year, since the mood has flip-flopped back toward the GOP, a O'Malley/Ehrlich rematch would be an interesting race whose outcome would probably be considered a toss-up at this point.  However, Ehrlich has not declared his candidacy in the race.  Signs point to Ehrlich's interest in running, and former Maryland Secretary of Appointments Larry Hogan stepped aside earlier this month to clear the way for the former governor.  With Ehrlich in, this race would be much closer than the Strong DEM Hold rating currently projected here.

House District 1:  Frank Kratovil, Jr. swiped this seat - rated R+13 by Charlie Cook - from the GOP in 2008 after a brutal primary saw the incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest defeated by then-state-senator Andy Harris.  That primary slugfest cost Republicans the seat when Kratovil bested Harris by a single point in November.  Harris is back this year to try again.  In such a Republican-leaning district in a Republican year, this is seat should be easy for the GOP to recover.  However, ill-feelings against Harris by many moderate Republicans in the district - including the former congressman - may handicap him in the general election.  Another Republican might be better suited to run here.  For now, though, given such a strong GOP-tilt in the district, I'm projecting a Weak GOP Gain.

All the rest of the races and much more stuff is available on the Maryland state page.

Next stop: Massachusetts



Filed under:  Maryland  MD Senate  MD House  MD Governor 

Governor:  Democrat John Baldacci is term-limited.  He is currently serving his second four-year term in Augusta.  Looking to occupy the Governor's Mansion after he leaves are no less than 20 different folks, 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats and, in keeping with Maine's political DNA, 6 independents.  At this stage it is highly difficult to pick the nominees - much less the next governor.  Polls don't help much, giving nobody a clear advantage.  So, the preliminary projection leans left just as Maine does.  Call it a Mod DEM Hold.

More information on the Pine Tree State is available on the Maine state page.

Next stop:  Maryland.



Filed under:  Maine  ME Governor 

Senate:  It's been six years since Vitter succeeded popular outgoing Democratic Senator John Breaux, and this year he's up for re-election for the first time.  Last year as races across the nation were shaping up, Vitter seemed quite vulnerable.  Fresh off the heels of a scandal involving a DC madam, Vitter's outlook was less than enviable.  However, since a public apology with his wife by his side, Vitter's fortunes have improved.  And last month, Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne announced his decision not to stage a primary run against Vitter, eliminating perhaps the biggest obstacle in the incumbent's path to a second term.  On the Democratic side, Congressman Charlie Melancon, the state's lone House Democrat, is running to unseat Vitter.  Recent polls show him well behind.  The race is currently a Mod GOP Hold, but could move into more secure territory for Vitter by November.

House District 2:  Freshman Republican incumbent Joseph Cao is hands down the most vulnerable congressman in the country.  Elected in 2008 in a district which sports a 60% African-American populace, Cao benefited from the criminal activities of former incumbent William Jefferson and from the December time slot in which the election was held.  Essentially, Cao's first term will be, in all likelihood, the only term by a Republican in this district in my lifetime.  Due to the strange rating of toss-up offered by Charlie Cook, this race is listed as a Mod DEM Gain.  In reality, a strong or even solid rating in favor of the Democrats is probably more appropriate.

House District 3:  Just as CD-2 is sure to go back to the Democrats in November, CD-3 is a GOP-leaning district itching to switch the other way.  Democrat Charlie Melancon is running for Senate.  His departure opens the door for what should be a relatively easy GOP pick-up.  Currently five folks are running on the GOP side, including two Louisiana state legislators.  So far on the Democratic side, several are looking at the race but only Ravi Sangisetty, an attorney, has declared a run.  Again, this should be low-hanging fruit for the GOP.  The race probably won't be very close when all the votes are counted, but it starts off at Election Projection as a Weak GOP Gain.

A lot more information can be had at the Louisiana state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop: Maine



Filed under:  Louisiana  LA Senate  LA House 

For the Republicans, rising-star Secretary of State Trey Grayson is attempting to parlay his precocious statewide victory in 2003 into a seat on Capitol Hill.  When he won that race at 29 years of age, he became the youngest secretary of state in the nation.  Now 37, he'll be the youngest sitting senator in Washington if he wins again this year.  That's a big if.  Opposing him in the GOP primary is Rand Paul, son of libertarian-leaning congressman and 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul.  Many were saying early on that Paul's like-father-like-son views would not sit well with Kentucky Republicans socially conservative streak.  However, he has experienced a slow and steady rise in both primary and general election polls over the last few months, and he now appears to be the odds-on favorite to win the seat.  In this current climate, either Republican would probably win by a small margin, so I'll start this race off as a Weak GOP Hold.

Check out much more information on the Bluegrass State on Election Projection's Kentucky state page.

Next stop:  Louisiana



Filed under:  Kentucky  KY Senate 

As a result of incorporating actual polling numbers into the projections for Illinois, Mark Steven Kirk is now projected to win the Senate race.  Yep, that's the seventh seat now projected to go to the GOP in November and moves the projected Senate tally to 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 2 Independents.

One more note: The GOP gubernatorial primary is still too close to call, so the projection for that race remains preliminary.  I'll update this post when I receive word that the nominee has been named.

Update:  State Senator Bill Brady is the GOP nominee for governor.



Filed under:  Primary results  Illinois  IL Senate  IL House  IL Governor