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| - February, 2011 |
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| Monday, February 28, 2011 |
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| 2012 Redistricting updates coming soon |
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Program update here at Election Projection. Starting soon, I will be publishing a section on the redistricting process after the census of 2010. Reapportionment has been finalized, but the
real fun of redistricting is just getting underway. Check back here often for state-by-state updates as they come in.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Redistricting
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:13pm 02/28/11::
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| Thursday, February 17, 2011 |
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| Tea Party making waves for 2012 |
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Last year's elections saw mostly positive results from the growth of the Tea Party movement. Next year, it looks like they'll be aiming for an encore. Three Republican senators
are early targets. After the demise of Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and Bob Bennett in Utah at
the hands of Tea Party-backed candidates, GOP incumbents who find themselves on the target list have reason to sweat. Senators Richard Lugar (R-IN), Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
and Orrin Hatch (R-UT) must face the groundswell of conservative opposition to their centrist governance.
I applaud the resurgence of conservative ideals making its way once again across the country. I'm especially happy to see it rising against Hatch and Lugar since keeping those
seats in GOP hands should be only mildly challenging without the incumbent on the ballot. The prospects of winning in Maine without Snowe on the ballot seem much less
likely. The question raised by these challenges to more moderate Republicans is whether it is better in the long run to have Republicans in blue-tinted states while sacrificing the purity
of the ideology or liberal Democrats with our ideology in tact. I'm still trying to figure out the right answer to that question. In the meantime, the Tea Party marches on,
showing full well that it will be a force to be reckoned with once again in 2012.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Tea Party
Senate '12
UT Senate 2012
ME Senate 2012
IN Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:12pm 02/17/11::
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| Thursday, February 10, 2011 |
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| Incumbent Jon Kyl out of the 2012 mix for Arizona Senate seat |
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On the heels of yesterday's announcement in Virginia that Democrat Jim Webb has decided to retire at the end of this term, another senator - this time a Republican - makes public his
decision to forego a run at re-election to the Senate. Jon Kyl, a solid bet to keep his Arizona Senate seat, will also retire. His seat doesn't immediately become competitive, but
Democrats will be happy to challenge a non-incumbent instead of the popular three-term senator.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Senate '12
Arizona 2012
AZ Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 02/10/11::
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| Jim Webb will not seek re-election to Virginia Senate seat |
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First-term Senator Jim Webb announced yesterday that he would not seek re-election in 2012. This is a significant development on at least two fronts. First, Webb's exit
means Democrats must defend an open seat here against former Senator George Allen. With a relatively short list of top-tier possibilities, keeping Allen from taking the seat becomes
more difficult.
Second, Virginia's electoral votes, which President Obama captured in 2008, become a bit harder to hold without the incumbent senator on the ballot. Of course,
Obama doesn't necessarily need Virginia to win another term, but I'm sure he'd rather avoid as many negatives as possible between now and November, 2012.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Virginia 2012
VA Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:25pm 02/10/11::
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| Wednesday, February 9, 2011 |
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| Election 2012 - A first look at the Senate races |
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Trying to evaluate the outcome of an election nearly two years away is not dissimilar to predicting the winner of Super Bowl XLVII. Any prognostication should be taken for what it
is. It will either come simply from a check of the current political pulse, or it will be a blind stab at pinning down the country's political climate 20 months from now, or it will be, as mine
here is, a conglomeration of a variety of possibilities. In short, it is pretty much a waste of time. But since it is such an enjoyable waste of time, I feel it not a waste to go
ahead and prognosticate a little.
Since there is very little we can do this far out to foresee the mood of the American electorate a year after this coming November, my first look at the Senate races
of 2012 includes different ratings depending on what color wave, if any, is bearing down on us as we move toward Election Day. To provide good points of reference, I will use the
red wave of 2010 as a highwater mark for the GOP, the blue wave of 2006 for the Democrats, and the status-quo election of 2000 as the calm political seas example.
| Senate Races, 2012 |
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| Race | Ratings |
| If 2012 resembles... | 2000 | 2006 | 2010 |
| Arizona | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| If he runs, Jon Kyl should win against all but the largest of blue waves. |
| California | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Ditto in the opposite direction for Dianne Feinstein. She likely wins easy. |
| Connecticut | Lean D | Likely D | Toss-up |
| Lieberman's retirement bodes well for Democrats in this blue state. |
| Delaware | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Tom Carper's next term is another solid bet if he wants it. |
| Florida | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Bill Nelson's fortunes may rest on the whim of the political tide. |
| Hawaii | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| Amazingly, the ageless Daniel Akaka seeks, and will get, another term. |
| Indiana | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R |
| Richard Lugar should prevail though he faces intra-party challenges. |
| Massachusetts | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Scott Brown will never rest easy in the deep blue Bay State. |
| Maryland | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Ben Cardin hasn't confirmed a re-run, but Dems look good regardless. |
| Maine | Lean R | Toss-up | Likely R |
| A solid blue wave could topple Olympia Snowe. |
| Michigan | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| After a great showing here in '10, the GOP will be after Debbie Stabenow. |
| Minnesota | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D |
| Amy Klobucher is not invulnerable, but I think she must like her chances. |
| Mississippi | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| This is Republican country, so Roger Wicker's bid looks strong. |
| Missouri | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Claire McCaskill may need a wave to survive; Obama could help here. |
| Montana | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Denny Rehberg's decision to run will give Jon Tester big headaches. |
| Nebraska | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson's exit could make way for the GOP. |
| Nevada | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| Embattled John Ensign faces a difficult campaign - if he runs. |
| New Jersey | Lean D | Likely D | Toss-up |
| Could Chris Christie's win in 2009 be a bad omen for Bob Menendez? |
| New Mexico | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| This one is just about in the bag for Jeff Bingaman. |
| New York | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| '10 proved Kristen Gillibrand is tough to beat; O for a legit challenger. |
| North Dakota | Lean R | Toss-up | Likely R |
| Kent Conrad leaves behind the best takeover opportunity of all. |
| Ohio | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| The state GOP has recovered; Sherrod Brown is very vulnerable. |
| Pennsylvania | Lean D | Likely D | Toss-up |
| The red wave of '10 hit Penn hard; another could oust Bob Casey. |
| Rhode Island | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D |
| No worries in Little Rhodie for first-termer Sheldon Whitehouse. |
| Tennessee | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R |
| Tennessee's monstrous rightward lurch will propel Bob Corker. |
| Texas | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R |
| With Kay Bailey Hutchison out, this one could get interesting. |
| Utah | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| Whether it's Orrin Hatch or another Republican, Utah stays with the GOP. |
| Virginia | Toss-up | Lean D | Lean R |
| See Missouri - Jim Webb's re-election chances look a lot like McCaskill's. |
| Vermont | Safe I | Safe I | Safe I |
| Bernie Sanders won't break a sweat in route to another term. |
| Washington | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| If Patty Murray didn't lose in '10, Maria Cantwell won't in '12. |
| Wisconsin | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Despite Ron Johnson's win here last year, take Herb Kohl if he runs. |
| West Virginia | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D |
| Joe Manchin will probably be popular enough for a full term. |
| Wyoming | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R |
| No matter how you slice it, John Barrasso's win is a done deal. |
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Judging from these ratings, Election 2012 could end up with widely varying results. If the blue wave of 2006 returns, Democrats could undo much of the gains Republicans enjoyed
last November. On the other hand, if we are still awash in a red wave by then, Republicans stand to regain the majority that was wrested away from them in 2006. In fact,
because so many more Democrats are up for re-election - 21 seats versus just 10 for the GOP - a persistent Republican tide could net even greater gains than we saw in 2010.
Finally, if the election is more of a status-quo affair, the large number of Democratic seats up for grabs bodes well for a lesser number of Republican gains, perhaps just enough to get that
Senate majority.
So I say we could see anywhere from a 4 or 5 seat gain for Democrats to an 8 or 9 seat gain for the Republicans - or anything in between. How's that for laying it on the line!
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Senate '12
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:27pm 02/09/11::
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| Monday, February 7, 2011 |
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| Huffington Post purchased by AOL for $315 million |
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I just read that AOL is buying Huffington Post for a staggering $315 million. That's a huge sum for a website
which started 18 months after Election Projection. Just in case, I'd be willing to part with Election Projection for a measley 0.5% of that. Send me an email if you're interested!
Coming this week: Election 2012, Senate - a first look.
Filed under:
The Blogging Caesar
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:58pm 02/07/11::
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