The presidential election here has gone the GOP's way so far this millenium.  As the population takes on more and more of a latin flair, the race for Arizona's 10 electoral votes may get a little closer.  George W. Bush took the state in 2004 by an 11-point margin.  Expect the GOP to once again paint Arizona red, but by a bit less.  Call it a Mod Hold for the Republican candidate.

Since there are no Senate or gubernatorial races on tap this year, we'll move to the House.  Just as they did in 2006, the Democrats have a good chance of gaining ground here on Election Day.  Particularly vulnerable on the GOP side is Rick Renzi's district 1 seat.  Mired in controversy, he has decided to forego a defense of his seat.  That opens the door for two strong candidates on the Democratic side to take aim at it.  Because they both are of Native American descent in this most Native American of districts, The Blogging Caesar rates this race a Weak DEM Gain.  That may change, but for now, Arizona CD-1 becomes the first seat I'm projecting to switch parties.

The only other race which should be interesting is the possible rematch between Democrat Harold Mitchell and Republican J.D. Hayworth in district 5.  Mitchell took the seat from Hayworth two years ago and should hold onto it now with the power of incumbency, but it will be a close race.  For now, I'm rating it a Weak DEM Hold.

There's lots more information on the Arizona state page.

Next stop:  Arkansas