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  Politics and Elections
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Florida predictions
John McCain and Mitt Romney are locked in a nail-biter down in the Sunshine State.  Because of the winner-take-all format for the GOP in Florida, even the slightest victory translates into a substantial pick up in delegates.  Perhaps more importantly, the winner today will be well-positioned heading into next week's Super-Duper-Mega-Jumbo Tuesday.

So who will be that victor?  Polls are close, very close.  This week's endorsement of McCain by Florida Governor Charlie Crist certainly didn't hurt the senator's chances, but it's hard to tell how many voters the announcement will sway.  It did help convince me to go with the aggregate polling average and predict a slim McCain margin over Romney.

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani looks like he'll find out his strategy of effectively waiting on the sidelines until this day in Florida was not such a great idea.  No, the Rudy firewall is burning.  With his poll numbers tanking nationwide, it is very difficult to see how he can survive a distant third here today and mount any credible comeback in the future.  And Mike Huckabee's support, as expected after the second-place finish in South Carolina, is waning as well.  This has clearly become a two-man race for the GOP nomination.

On the Democratic side, the candidates are once again fighting for nothing but bragging rights.  Like Michigan, Florida's delegates have been taken away by the DNC for conducting the primary before Feb. 5.  However, that doesn't stop The Blogging Caesar from making predictions on that contest, too.

Republicans
  • John McCain - 36%
  • Mitt Romney - 35%
  • Rudy Giuliani - 14%
  • Mike Huckabee - 10%
  • Ron Paul - 5%
Democrats
  • Hillary Clinton - 47%
  • Barack Obama - 38%
  • John Edwards - 15%
  • Mike Gravel - 0%
Other predictions from around the blogosphere:
  • California Yankee  Rudy to withdraw before Super Tuesday?
  • Kingdom of Chaos  El Jefe Maximo says electibility helps McCain.
  • Label Free Zone  Another death knoll strike for Rudy.
  • NB Politico  No nail-biter here.
  • The Political Tipster: GOP, DEM  McCain edges ahead due to late polls.
  • Political Machine  Greg says only early voting keeps Rudy out of fourth.
  • Outside The Beltway  Dr. Joyner joins me but sees larger margins.
  • Coldheartedtruth  C.H. continues a uniform trend.
  • If you have posted predictions, send me an email so I can put you on this list.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00am 01/29/08 ::
        << Previous Politics and Elections    Next >>     



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