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  Politics and Elections
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Giuliani's big bust, McCain now true frontrunner
Last night sealed the deal on The Blogging Caesar's second edict and thrust John McCain out in front of a diminishing GOP field.  The Florida primary showed McCain's ability to win a closed GOP primary.  It also brought to an end to the "how-not-to-run-a-campaign" debacle that was Rudy Giuliani's candidacy.

After McCain's convincing winner-take-all triumph last night over Mitt Romney, I'm tempted to issue another edict that the senator will now be the nominee.  However, I have counted Mr. Romney out too many times before to risk my authority of the decree on his demise once again.  His resiliency - and the fact that he is still the only "true conservative" running - precludes any forthcoming edicts on the matter.  (I confer that characteristic on him simply as an echo of what more learned GOP pundits are saying.  Personally, I still doubt that his rhetoric on the campaign trail is consistent with his true self.  Knowing the mind and heart of a used car salesman is a challenge at best.)

Now back to the man of the hour.  As I watched the returns break in McCain's favor last night, an old adage crept into my mind.  "Be careful what you wish for!"  It is true that I want the GOP to win in November real bad (grammatical blunder intended), but I got a sinking feeling when I thought about President McCain.  Not so much about amnesty for illegals or sunsetting tax cuts, but about the Supreme Court.  You see, conservatives are on the verge of establishing a momentous majority on the bench.

With several justices, at least two of a liberal bent, getting way up in years, the next 4 to 8 years will likely present multiple opportunities to move the Court closer to where it was designed to be by the Founding Fathers.  However, I am unaware of McCain's guiding principles on the issue of choosing justices.  And even if he does nominate constructionist candidates, I am doubtful of Mr. Compromise's resolve to face down a Democratic majority Senate in any confirmation battle.

As a side note, it is a great irony to me that, on the judicial front, I am most comfortable with Rudy handling the reins.  He is well-known as a social liberal, but that comes more from a libertarian mindset.  As such, he committed openly to nominating only strict constructionists to serve on the bench.  Of course, he will not get that opportunity.  Florida made sure of that.

It also confirmed the fact that the race for the GOP nomination is now between John McCain and Mitt Romney.  With Giuliani set to pull out and Huckabee floundering in the teens, only those two have any real shot.  Heading into Super-duper-mega-jumbo Tuesday, the storyline will revolve around the impact Huckabee's continued presence will have on the top two.  Most of what I've read seems to indicate the Arkansan will help McCain by siphoning more support away from Romney.  I tend to agree with that assessment.  It is another reason John McCain should feel pretty good about his chances this morning.

A couple of notes on the Democratic side.  Since they were playing with play chips last night, Hillary's victory doesn't mean a whole lot.  However, after what happened in South Carolina on Saturday, a lopsided victory was just what the doctor ordered.  It confirms again that she is still a player and may take a bit of the luster off Obama's rising star, which has shown ever so brightly in recent days.  How does one decide who is the frontrunner in this one?  It could go either way, and probably will before the convention now that John Edwards has dropped out.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00am 01/30/08 ::
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