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| Friday, January 18, 2008 |
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| Lunchtime report |
| Polls are once again offering conflicting data on the GOP primary race in South Carolina. I posted yesterday
that John McCain seemed to be losing ground based on two polls conducted after the Michigan primary. Today, however,
a Reuters/CSpan/Zogby tracking poll indicates McCain's lead is holding steady. He has stayed at 29% over the last
three days, two of which were after Michigan. In fact, that Zogby poll shows very little movement top to bottom.
This could mean folks are settling on a particular candidate and are becoming less impacted by past results.
It also means McCain does have a shot at winning in South Carolina. I still believe he will falter tomorrow, but
after everything that's happened so far this primary season, who knows? I am hoping another poll or two will be
released before the voting starts so I can have more data with which to identify trends and make my final South Carolina
predictions.
There is another primary happening on Saturday. I have been lacking in my discussion of Nevada. Let me
give you a word or two on that race. On the GOP side, Mitt Romney looks well-positioned to win, and he is busy
campaigning there today. McCain seems poised to take second. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is
leading in the polls by a half-dozen or so over Barack Obama. But, will the polls get it right this time?
I post my final predictions on both races later on. Stay tuned...
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:35am 01/18/08 ::
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