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| Tuesday, January 15, 2008 |
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| Michigan predictions - Updated at 8:55pm |
| It will be close. But who will win today in Michigan is hard to say. Unlike many
states, Michigan's primary is open. That means anyone, Democrat, Independent, or Republican, can vote in either
party's primary. As we saw in New Hampshire, this can have some measure of impact on the outcome. This year
is different in Michigan, though.
With the DNC attempting to strip Michigan of its delegates, many more Democrats
than normal may decide to vote in the GOP primary instead. If they do, how will they vote? On the one hand
they may vote for someone they like. That could benefit McCain. On the other hand, with an eye on November's
outcome, they may vote for the one they think will be the easiest for a Democrat to beat. That could help either
Romney or Huckabee.
And then there are the polls. They've been all over the place this last week. Add to that the failure we
saw in New Hampshire with regard to the polls, and it's just very difficult to pick a winner with any confidence.
Yet, here I go. Below are my predictions for the 2008 Michigan primary. I've included the Democrats even
though the frontrunners are skipping this one and, among them, only Hillary is even on the ballot.
Republicans
- John McCain - 30%
- Mitt Romney - 29%
- Mike Huckabee - 21%
- Fred Thompson - 8%
- Ron Paul - 7%
- Rudy Giuliani - 4%
- Duncan Hunter - 1%
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Democrats
- Hillary Clinton - 63%
- Uncommitted - 30%:
Barack Obama - 20%
John Edwards - 10%
- Dennis Kucinich - 2%
- Others - 5%
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Other predictions from around the blogosphere:
If you have posted predictions, send me an email so I can put you on this list.
Update(8:55pm): Well, it looks like Romney has proven me wrong, both about tonight and
overall. Two possible reasons come to mind. Bill Kristol voiced one on
Fox News tonight when he wondered what if anything can be gleaned from these first three major contests in Iowa, New
Hampshire, and Michigan. In effect, given the evangelical support for Huck in Iowa, the rock star status of
McCain in New Hampshire, and Romney's family roots in Michigan, we really haven't seen how the frontrunners will fare
out in the open water of mainstream Republican voters.
The second factor that I think may be gaining momentum is the daily barrage against McCain and Huckabee from Rush
Limbaugh. On his radio show, he consistently berates and criticizes both men for their lack of fiscal conservatism.
Perhaps his influence has begun to be felt. Perhaps it will only increase as we move into the closed primaries
that dot the rest of the primary calendar. If that's the case, it could spell serious trouble for McCain and
Huckabee and open the door for Romney or Giuliani, or even Thompson, to get ahead.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:10am 01/15/08 ::
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