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  Politics and Elections
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Michigan predictions - Updated at 8:55pm
It will be close.  But who will win today in Michigan is hard to say.  Unlike many states, Michigan's primary is open.  That means anyone, Democrat, Independent, or Republican, can vote in either party's primary.  As we saw in New Hampshire, this can have some measure of impact on the outcome.  This year is different in Michigan, though.

With the DNC attempting to strip Michigan of its delegates, many more Democrats than normal may decide to vote in the GOP primary instead.  If they do, how will they vote?  On the one hand they may vote for someone they like.  That could benefit McCain.  On the other hand, with an eye on November's outcome, they may vote for the one they think will be the easiest for a Democrat to beat.  That could help either Romney or Huckabee.

And then there are the polls.  They've been all over the place this last week.  Add to that the failure we saw in New Hampshire with regard to the polls, and it's just very difficult to pick a winner with any confidence.  Yet, here I go.  Below are my predictions for the 2008 Michigan primary.  I've included the Democrats even though the frontrunners are skipping this one and, among them, only Hillary is even on the ballot.

Republicans
  • John McCain - 30%
  • Mitt Romney - 29%
  • Mike Huckabee - 21%
  • Fred Thompson - 8%
  • Ron Paul - 7%
  • Rudy Giuliani - 4%
  • Duncan Hunter - 1%
Democrats
  • Hillary Clinton - 63%
  • Uncommitted - 30%:
       Barack Obama - 20%
       John Edwards - 10%
  • Dennis Kucinich - 2%
  • Others - 5%
Other predictions from around the blogosphere:
  • Label Free Zone  Huckabee beats Romney, McCain wins.
  • Coldheartedtruth  C.H. and I are close, our predictions are running neck and neck.
  • at-the-water-cooler  Wayne sees no losers - except Obama.
  • NB Politico  Giuliani in double-figures.
  • Kingdom of Chaos  El Jefe says the homeboy will win.
  • The Political Tipster  Odds favor McCain but predictions swing toward Romney.
  • AllahPundit at Hot Air  Chance of tears:  Mitt Romney - 50%, Hugh Hewitt - 100%.
  • Erick at Redstate  Romney victory builds momentum for Super Tuesday.
  • John Gizzi at Human Events  Uh oh, McCain insiders wary?
  • California Yankee  Dan Spencer adds another one-point victory to the list.
  • Outside The Beltway  Dr. Joyner and his crew post their picks.
  • Political Machine  Economy talk will win the day for Romney.
  • If you have posted predictions, send me an email so I can put you on this list.

    Update(8:55pm):  Well, it looks like Romney has proven me wrong, both about tonight and overall.  Two possible reasons come to mind.  Bill Kristol voiced one on Fox News tonight when he wondered what if anything can be gleaned from these first three major contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan.  In effect, given the evangelical support for Huck in Iowa, the rock star status of McCain in New Hampshire, and Romney's family roots in Michigan, we really haven't seen how the frontrunners will fare out in the open water of mainstream Republican voters.

    The second factor that I think may be gaining momentum is the daily barrage against McCain and Huckabee from Rush Limbaugh.  On his radio show, he consistently berates and criticizes both men for their lack of fiscal conservatism.  Perhaps his influence has begun to be felt.  Perhaps it will only increase as we move into the closed primaries that dot the rest of the primary calendar.  If that's the case, it could spell serious trouble for McCain and Huckabee and open the door for Romney or Giuliani, or even Thompson, to get ahead.

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