Today is:
Election Day in:

2012 Projections

President
Senate
House
Governors





Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.



EP in Cyberspace

Become a fan...



Or follow us...


Support EP


Favorite Links

Jesus the Because
2012 Presidential Elections
Viking Pundit
RealClearPolitics
Hugh Hewitt
PoliPundit
Confederate Yankee
Sister Toldjah
PollingReport
Betsy's Page
Right Wing News
Crystal Ball
Atlas of US Elections
OnTheIssues.org

Blogroll

The Anchoress
Baldilocks
California Yankee
Daily Pundit
Dividend Reinvestment Plans
DANEgerous
Daniel Drezner
InstaPundit
Intellectual Conservative
Kim Priestap
La Shawn Barber
Mark Steyn
Michael Totten
Michelle Malkin
Murdoc Online
Mystery Pollster
One Hand Clapping
Outside the Beltway
Political Dog 101
PoliticalWire
Powerline
RedState
Right-Thinking
The Strata-Sphere
The Volokh Conspiracy
Wizbang!

Archives

May, 2012
April, 2012
March, 2012
February, 2012
January, 2012
December, 2011
November, 2011
October, 2011
September, 2011
August, 2011
July, 2011
June, 2011
April, 2011
March, 2011
February, 2011
January, 2011
November, 2010
October, 2010
September, 2010
August, 2010
July, 2010
June, 2010
May, 2010
April, 2010
March, 2010
February, 2010
January, 2010
December, 2009
November, 2009
October, 2009
September, 2009
August, 2009
June, 2009
May, 2009
April, 2009
March, 2009
November, 2008
October, 2008
September, 2008
August, 2008
June, 2008
May, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
February, 2008
January, 2008
December, 2007
November, 2007
October, 2007
September, 2007
July, 2007
June, 2007
May, 2007
April, 2007
March, 2007
February, 2007
January, 2007
November, 2006
October, 2006
September, 2006
August, 2006
July, 2006
June, 2006
May, 2006
April, 2006
March, 2006
February, 2006
January, 2006
December, 2005
November, 2005
August, 2005
July, 2005
June, 2005
May, 2005
April, 2005
March, 2005
February, 2005
January, 2005
November, 2004
October, 2004
September, 2004
August, 2004
July, 2004
June, 2004
May, 2004
April, 2004
March, 2004
February, 2004
January, 2004
December, 2003


  Politics and Elections
Friday, January 4, 2008
Ten reactions to the Iowa caucuses
Last night was very good, obviously, for the two winners, Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama.  It was very bad for two prior frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton.  Beyond that, let's take a look at what else I think we can glean from the results in Iowa.

First, Democratic enthusiasm has maintained - if not increased - the very high level we saw in 2006.  Well over 200,000 Iowans participated in the Democratic caucuses.  That's huge when you consider the previous record, set in 2004, was around 120,000.  Barack Obama is largely to credit for the increase.  It appears he was successful in his aim to widen the pool of participants.  This substantial uptick portends another difficult year for the GOP in November.

Second, Mike Huckabee is the real deal.  Sure, Iowa was won by a tremendous outpouring of support among Christians, but this nation - especially the red states - are full of Christians who have longed for a candidate like Mike.  Last night proved that the Huckabee appeal has an enormous ability to motivate and mobilize.  Regardless of his questionable fiscal credentials, he "shares my values" with enough folks in America who will get out and vote to make him a legitimate contender, not just for the GOP nomination, but also for the presidency.

Third, how I wish Barack Obama were a Republican!  I have to say the man is impressive.  I don't think I've been privileged to hear a more gifted orator in my lifetime, for sure not one running for office.  I was blown away by his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention.  I was blown away once again by the victory speech he gave last night.  And at his age, he'll be a major force in American politics for a long time to come.

Fourth, Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble.  I predicted earlier that if Hillary didn't win Iowa she would be in trouble, and, indeed, she is.  I'm sure she has plenty of dirty tricks up her sleeve to spring on Obama, and she could still capture the nomination.  I think, however, at this point, it looks like she'll have to go dirty, heavy and often, to win.  She cannot beat Obama on substance, and she is no match for him on charisma and personality.  (Plus, she doesn't have Oprah in her corner.)

Fifth, again as I predicted, Mitt Romney underperformed.  He was perhaps the biggest loser of the night.  Unlike Hillary, who still leads in national polls and must contend with only Obama the rest of the way, Romney's troubles only get worse.  After the resounding loss last night, he now must go to New Hampshire - another 'must-win' that has recently gone south for him.  As it stands now, he almost certainly will not win there.  Those are two states where he was heavily favored just weeks ago.  McCain and Huckabee are rising, and Romney is fading.  And I haven't even mentioned Giuliani who waits in the wings to continue the clobbering once we get to Florida and beyond.

If Romney didn't have the vast fortunes to self-finance his candidacy, he would surely be out after New Hampshire.  Since he does, only his unwillingness to concede the inevitable will keep him in the race.  In truth, last night and his impending loss in New Hampshire (he could finish 3rd or worse there depending on how the Granite State reacts to Huckabee's win in Iowa) all but ended any hope Romney has of capturing the nomination.

Sixth, John Edwards is still irrelevant.  It's as if he's content to campaign in Iowa for 4 years, come in second in the caucuses, give a victory speech, and start the process over again.  Someone needs to tell him that runner-up in Iowa is not on par with winning the presidency.  Apparently, he hasn't grasped that yet.

Seventh, John McCain made some noise last night with a virtual third-place tie.  Yet, even though he should win New Hampshire, it is hard for me see how he can win the nomination.  I just don't see him overtaking Giuliani and withstanding the momentum Huckabee has in his favor.  I do believe that last night, assuming a McCain victory in New Hampshire, turned this race into a contest between three men - Huckabee, McCain and Giuliani.

Eighth, Thompson's late surge produced a third-place finish, but not the strong third-place finish he needed to solidify his chances.  I think we'll see the rumors of his departure are true.  Look for him to be gone soon after South Carolina.

Ninth, Ron Paul didn't do as well as I thought.  Still, 10 percent in Iowa isn't bad.  He will stick around until all that money runs out, but I don't think he'll have much impact going forward.  (I do think it is wrong for him to be excluded from any debates.  Twenty million dollars in campaign contributions has earned him a place at the table.)

Tenth, Iowa deserves it place as the first in the nation.  There's something quintessentially American about a smallish Midwestern state full of common folks getting to have a bit of additional sway over the election process.  I think Thomas Jefferson would be proud.

And so we're off.  I'm excited that things are underway now.  This will be one of the most interesting primary and general election seasons in a long while.  I have long thought this election would be an uphill battle for the GOP.  After the turnout last night, I don't feel any need to adjust that sentiment.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:55pm 01/04/08 ::
    << Previous Politics and Elections    Next >>     



2012 Electoral College Projection

Click for details
2012 Senate Projection

Click for details
2012 House Projection

Click for details
2012 Governors Projection

Click for details
Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political


Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics


D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report


Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas


David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report


Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball


Richard & Tony
The Green Papers


Rose Institute
Redistricting in America


Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
RealClearPolitics

2012 Projections, State-by-State

Alabama         
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri

Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Election Projection Resources
 
EP's RSS Feed

RSS Feed  RSS
2010 Projection Results

2008 Projection Results

2006 Projection Results

2004 Projection Results

Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
thebloggingcaesar
-at- yahoo.com
 

©Copyright 2003-2012 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved