But Mitt Romney, in his home state, was the man of the hour last night.  More than just his ties to Michigan, his message of economic hope scored big in this financially distraught state.  His victory cements the fact that we have no fewer than 4 men running neck and neck on the GOP side.  Three victors in 4 states - and the frontrunner for most of last year (Rudy Giuliani) has yet to compete in earnest.  And who knows, maybe Fred Thompson will win South Carolina!

Whereas Hillary Clinton's nomination was perceived until Iowa to be an inevitability, it now is becoming clear that a brokered convention may be inevitable for the Republicans.  It will be interesting to me to see how the polls react to Romney's win last night.  After New Hampshire, McCain rocketed to the top.  He went from middle-of-the-pack to prohibitive favorite overnight.  Will Romney do the same?  Probably to some degree, at least for a while.

I do believe the second-place finish will certainly draw McCain back to the rest.  Before the primary yesterday, he looked like the favorite to win South Carolina on Saturday.  Now, it looks like a two-way contest between Thompson Romney and Huckabee.  In fact, by finishing runner-up, McCain will be hurt more than any other candidate.

His candidacy has always been iffy due to his past record within GOP circles.  Now that he has lost an open primary where Democrats and Independents could vote for him, his prospects of winning the nomination may have evaporated.  Even with the momentum of a New Hampshire/Michigan sweep, it would have been a tough task; without that momentum, it's probably an impossibility.

So where does the race go from here?  The two I've written off, Romney and Giuliani, are front and center again.  Huckabee still has a chance, but he's running against Rush Limbaugh as well as the other candidates.  Talk about a tough task!  I've gone from threatening an edict decreeing a Huckabee nominee with a victory in Michigan to having serious thoughts about him dropping out altogether if he doesn't win South Carolina.  What a crazy primary season we have going on this year!

While the picture gets cloudier on the GOP side with each passing election, it's not much clearer on the Democratic side.  Hillary Clinton only got 55% of the vote last night even though she was the only major candidate even listed on the ballot!  Forty percent of voters braved the cold and snow to register an "uncommitted" vote.  This cannot be a good sign for her as we move into more heavily African-American states.  Even without Barack Obama's name on the ballot, people flocked to the polls to vote against Hillary.  I still give Hillary the edge in the end, but the Democrats may be headed for a brokered convention as well.  (Maybe John Edwards serves a purpose in this race after all!)

A reader wrote me scolding me for my recent predictions.  He said I should stick to formulating the numbers.  I'll get back to that in good time.  For now, these two nomination races are far too intriguing not to try to predict.

Update:  I've reconsidered the race in South Carolina.  As polls currently stand (pre-Michigan), Romney and Thompson are in a close battle for third behind McCain and Huckabee.  Romney will benefit from his victory last night and will move ahead of Thompson, who is courting essentially the same block of fiscal conservatives.  So, instead of a two-man race between Huck and Fred, it will be a contest between Huck and Mitt.