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| Saturday, January 5, 2008 |
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Will Romney and McCain mudslinging open door
for Huck in New Hampshire? |
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| One of the most pivotal moments in the 2004 Democratic primary process happened in the run up to
the Iowa caucuses. Richard Gephardt and Howard Dean were battling it out for first place there by slinging negative
ad after negative ad at each other. I wrote shortly after that in a two-man race mudslinging can work to one's
advantage, but when a solid third candidate is waiting on the sidelines, untouched by the fray, it may not be a good
idea to focus all your angst on your main opponent. John Kerry benefited mightily from the spat between the two
front runners and won Iowa in a surprise. The rest, of course, is history.
What we are going to be seeing over the next 3 days will somewhat resemble Iowa of 2004 with Mitt Romney and John
McCain constantly punching and counter-punching one another. Could this be just the right set of circumstances for
Mike Huckabee to get into contention? Perhaps. With GOP debates - Huckabee's strong suit - set to air between
now and when polls open on Tuesday in addition to the fight brewing between the top two, we might be in for a 2006
version of Kerry's 2004 Iowa surprise.
I'm not predicting Huck to win on Tuesday, but I do think he will outperform. It wouldn't surprise me if he
comes in just a couple points behind Romney instead of the 15 to 18 point deficit the polls now give him. If Rudy
Giuliani had been halfway engaged in the Granite State, he might benefit as well. (And, yes, that means I think
McCain wins.)
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10pm 01/05/08 ::
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