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| Sunday, January 10, 2010 |
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| MA Sen: Polling differences show difficulty in gauging support |
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In just 9 days, a pivotal Senate race will be decided in, of all places, Massachusetts. The late Ted Kennedy's seat is up for grabs. Under normal circumstances, this race would
be a ho-hum coronation of another Democrat in a state which ranks among the bluest of the blue. However, riding a wave of enthusiasm on the right and apathy on the left,
Republican Scott Brown has made a contest of it - at least depending on the poll you look at. Indeed, two ridiculously divergent polls have been released recently in the Bay
State. One shows Democrat Martha Coakley running away with it
by 15 points. The other has Brown moving into the lead
by a single point. This pair of polls demonstrates the difficulty survey takers are having
coming up with an accurate voter model to build their polls around. In Public Policy Polling's estimation (they have Brown up one)...
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Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the special
election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state. That decline in turnout from Obama voters
plagued Democratic candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. Beyond that 66% of Republicans say they’re 'very excited' about turning out while only 48% of
Democrats express that sentiment.
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Obamacare is a strong motivating factor among those surveyed in the PPP poll - and Brown, who has committed to voting against it if elected, is benefiting.
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Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama's health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President's overall job
performance 44/43.
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The pool of voters in the Boston Globe poll showing Coakley up insurmountably is obviously not the same. And therein lies the question of the day, perhaps the question of this whole
election season. How far does enthusiasm to get out and vote for Republican candidates outpace the desire to vote for Democrats? If the Boston Globe poll has it right, Democratic
losses in November may not be a large as we all predict 10 months out. Conversely, if Brown wins or comes close as the Public Policy poll suggests he will, then Republicans might be
headed toward a sea change election in 2010. Either way, one good thing is that we only have to wait nine days to find out.
Filed under:
2010 Elections
Massachusetts
MA Senate
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:50pm 01/10/10::
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