Click here for election results starting shortly after 8pm EST.

I'll be posting thoughts and reactions here throughout the evening.  My first thought is how broad - even at this late hour - the range of possible outcomes is.  We could see a narrow Martha Coakley victory by two or three points, or Scott Brown could walk away with it by a dozen or more.

Update (8:00pm):  Polls are closing - if you haven't already voted and you're not in line in Massachusetts, you'll not be voting this time 'round.  Here we go...

Update (8:12pm):  Fox News reports high turnout in the Republican suburbs of Boston, not so much in the Democratic inner city.  Also, just heard late deciders broke 47-41 for Coakley, but 22% of Democrats voted for Brown.  My heart is racing - I hope it can hold on!

Update (8:23pm):  CNN - first returns reported - less than one percent - Brown 54%, Coakley 45%.  It doesn't mean much yet, but I'm thrilled that some votes have actually been counted and reported.

Update (8:30pm):  The race is tightening.  51-48% with 7% reporting.

Update (8:40pm):  Brown lead grows with 18% reporting - 52% to 47%.

Update (8:48pm):  Here's a better source for results. At 8:41pm, with 543/2168 precincts reporting (25%), Brown 52%, Coakley 47%.

Update (8:54pm):  Coakley back to within 5% with 39% reporting.  Wolf Blitzer just mentioned the votes so far are coming more from the west which is more Republican.  This one is not over yet.

Update (9:06pm):  We're well over halfway now.  60% reporting and Brown's lead is holding so far.  He's still up 53%-46%.  One note of caution - only 35% of Boston has reported.

Update (9:16pm):  A reader writes in "that conservative West is mighty blue while the east is very red," referring to this site's map.  He's right, but there are still almost 50% of the precincts in Boston yet to be counted.  Now 70% reporting statewide, and we're still stuck on 53%-46% (which is fine with me!)

Update (9:22pm):  The AP has called it.  Did Coakley just concede?

Update (9:45pm):  Last update on this post.  Well, the unimaginable has happened. Scott Brown (R) will be the next senator from Massachusetts. He didn't win by quite as much as I predicted, but, hey, I'm not complaining!  The final margin looks to be around 6% or two points less than my 7.9% forecast.  Still, 6% is a solid victory and spells much trouble for the Democrats in November.



Filed under:  Senate  Massachusetts  MA Senate