But the momentum didn't stop when Brown got close.  Last week, polls started showing Brown ahead, some even giving him a healthy lead of 10 points or more.  And the energy, both anecdotal and measured, appeared to be all in Brown's corner.  All of a sudden, with just a couple days remaining, Brown looked like the favorite to win.  Now, on Election Day, the landscape has completely changed from late last year.  Instead of this being a sure victory for the Democrat, expectations in most circles are that Brown will win.

As expectations have changed, so have the stakes for the GOP.  Early on, even a close Brown defeat would have been seen as a repudiation of Democrats on Capitol Hill and their corrupt power management and a negative referendum on Obamcare.  But with expectations of a Brown victory the current conventional wisdom, a close Brown defeat becomes spinnable for the Democrats.

If Coakley wins, Democrats will be able to say that they took a Republican blindside - took their best shot - and emerged victorious all the same.  And after President Obama's visit here on Sunday, he'll be able to tout his "coming to the rescue" of an endangered Democrat.  As John Zogby said on a recent Sean Hannity radio show, a Coakley victory will enable Obama to use that message to assuage the fears of other Democrats contemplating retirement.  Of course, how effective they are in resonating that spin remains to be seen, and the GOP will for sure be touting any result today as an indication of voter angst with Obama and the Democrats.  However, the change of expectations will undoubtedly reduce the 'punch' that message would have had in the absence of Brown's major late-game surge.

Bottom line:  A Brown win today will be a huge victory for Republicans in so many ways.  It will energize the Republican base, facilitate GOP candidate recruitment, dampen Democratic recruitment, and most likely produce a greater number of Democratic retirements - if Massachusetts can fall, who can be considered safe? And that's just looking at the elections in November.  The GOP - and the nation, in this blogger's opinion - will benefit tangibly by regaining the power to filibuster the Democrats' agenda in the Senate.  Before the GOP enthusiasm tsunami hit the Bay State, a close loss would have still provided the GOP with much of these same advantages.  Now that Brown has become the de facto favorite, not so much.  The events of the last six weeks have transformed this race - as a matter of perception - from a no-lose situation to a win-lose battle that the GOP really needs to win.



Filed under:  Senate  Massachusetts  MA Senate